Insee conjoncture

In January 2018, the French business climate falters slightly but remains very favourable, the employment climate is stableBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - January 2018

In January 2018, the business climate has faltered slightly after having reached its highest level for ten years last December. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost two points. Nevertheless, at 110, it is still well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost five points in wholesale trade, two points in services, one point in building construction. It is stable in retail trade and it has gained one point in manufacturing industry. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

Informations rapides N° 14
No 14
Principaux indicateurs
Paru le : 26/01/2018
Prochaine parution le : 23/08/2018 at 08:45 - August 2018

The French business climate indicator has edged down in January

In January 2018, the business climate has faltered slightly after having reached its highest level for ten years last December. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost two points. Nevertheless, at 110, it is still well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost five points in wholesale trade, two points in services, one point in building construction. It is stable in retail trade and it has gained one point in manufacturing industry. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.

The employment climate holds steady at a high level

In January 2018, the employment climate is stable. The associated composite indicator stands at 109, clearly above its long-term mean and at its highest level since August 2011.The rise in the balances of opinion on past workforce size in retail trade and expected workforce size in the temporary employment sector has been offset by decreases in other sectors.

Revisions

Compared to their first estimate in Decembre 2017, the composite indicator in retail trade has been lowered by one point and the employment climate indicator has been raised by one point. Those revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses.

Graph1 – French business climate composite indicator

Graph3 – French employment climate composite indicator

Table1 – Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Sept. 17 Oct. 17 Nov. 17 Dec. 17 Jan. 18
Business climates
France 109 109 111 112 110
Manufacturing 111 111 113 112 113
Building 104 105 107 109 108
Services 108 107 108 111 109
Retail trade 112 113 116 114 114
Wholesale trade 109 - 111 - 106
Employment climate
Employment 107 108 108 109 109
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The turning point indicator remains in the favourable area

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area showing a favourable short-term economic outlook, where it has been since April 2017.

Table2 – Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Sept. 17 Oct. 17 Nov. 17 Dec. 17 Jan. 18
France 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8
Manufacturing 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9
Building 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.3
Services 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7
Wholesale trade 0.9 - 0.9 - 0.5
  • Source: INSEE. Business tendency surveys

Graph2 – Turning point indicator

  • Close to +1 (resp. –1). the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)