26 January 2018
2018- n° 14In January 2018, the French business climate falters slightly but remains very favourable,
the employment climate is stable Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - January 2018
In January 2018, the business climate has faltered slightly after having reached its highest level for ten years last December. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost two points. Nevertheless, at 110, it is still well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost five points in wholesale trade, two points in services, one point in building construction. It is stable in retail trade and it has gained one point in manufacturing industry. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The French business climate indicator has edged down in January
In January 2018, the business climate has faltered slightly after having reached its highest level for ten years last December. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, has lost two points. Nevertheless, at 110, it is still well above its long-term mean (100). The business climate has lost five points in wholesale trade, two points in services, one point in building construction. It is stable in retail trade and it has gained one point in manufacturing industry. It remains well above its long-term mean in all the sectors.
The employment climate holds steady at a high level
In January 2018, the employment climate is stable. The associated composite indicator stands at 109, clearly above its long-term mean and at its highest level since August 2011.The rise in the balances of opinion on past workforce size in retail trade and expected workforce size in the temporary employment sector has been offset by decreases in other sectors.
Revisions
Compared to their first estimate in Decembre 2017, the composite indicator in retail trade has been lowered by one point and the employment climate indicator has been raised by one point. Those revisions result from the integration of late answers from businesses.
graphiqueGraph1 – French business climate composite indicator
graphiqueGraph3 – French employment climate composite indicator
tableauTable1 – Business and employment climates
| Sept. 17 | Oct. 17 | Nov. 17 | Dec. 17 | Jan. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 109 | 109 | 111 | 112 | 110 |
| Manufacturing | 111 | 111 | 113 | 112 | 113 |
| Building | 104 | 105 | 107 | 109 | 108 |
| Services | 108 | 107 | 108 | 111 | 109 |
| Retail trade | 112 | 113 | 116 | 114 | 114 |
| Wholesale trade | 109 | - | 111 | - | 106 |
| Employment climate | |||||
| Employment | 107 | 108 | 108 | 109 | 109 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The turning point indicator remains in the favourable area
The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area showing a favourable short-term economic outlook, where it has been since April 2017.
tableauTable2 – Turning point indicators
| Sept. 17 | Oct. 17 | Nov. 17 | Dec. 17 | Jan. 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Manufacturing | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Building | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Services | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Wholesale trade | 0.9 | - | 0.9 | - | 0.5 |
- Source: INSEE. Business tendency surveys
graphiqueGraph2 – Turning point indicator
- Close to +1 (resp. –1). the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
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