Insee conjoncture
5 janvier 2018
N° 2018-2

In Decembre 2017, households' confidence improves furtherMonthly consumer confidence survey - December 2017

In December 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation rose again: the synthetic index gained 2 points and reached 105, clearly above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 2
Paru le : 05/01/2018
Prochaine parution le : 09/01/2019 at 08:45 - December 2018

In December 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation rose again: the synthetic index gained 2 points and reached 105, clearly above its long-term average (100).

Graph1Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Personal situation

Past financial situation: mild improvement

In December, households' opinion on their past financial situation improved slightly: the corresponding balance gained 2 points and returned to its July 2017 level. It stands above its long term average. Households' opinion on their future financial situation was stable. The corresponding balance thus remains below its long term average.

The proportion of households considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases was almost unchanged in December (+1 point). The corresponding balance has remained above its long term average since January 2016.

Expected and current saving capacity: virtually stable

In December, households' balance of opinion on their current saving capacity lost 1 point and the balance on their expected current saving capacity gained one. Those two balances were thus almost unchanged. Both stand above their long term average.

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save was stable in December. The corresponding balance has been below its long term average since May 2015.

Graph2Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Economic situation in France

Past standard of living in France: more favourable assessment

In December, households were significantly more optimistic about the past standard of living in France than in the previous month: the corresponding balance gained 7 points and deviated further from its long term average. Households' balance of opinion on the future standard of living in France was virtually stable (+1 point). Since February 2017, it has been above its long term average.

Unemployment: fears rising slightly

Households' fears about unemployment increased slightly in December: the corresponding balance recovered (+2 points), after falling by 7 points in November. However, it remains far below its long term average.

Graph3Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Perceived and expected inflation: declining

In December, households were less numerous than in November to consider that prices were on the rise during the last twelve months: the corresponding balance fell back by 4 points and stands way below its long-term average.

Households were also fewer than in November to expect prices to increase during the next twelve months: the corresponding balance fell by 4 points and returned to its long-term average.

Graph4Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

TableCONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
Avg. (1) Sept. 17 Oct. 17 Nov. 17 Dec. 17
Synthetic index (2) 100 101 100 103 105
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –21 –21 –19 –17
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –11 –16 –10 –10
Current saving capacity 8 10 11 12 11
Expected saving capacity –9 –3 –9 –2 –1
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 17 4 –4 4 4
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –14 –3 –6 –4 –3
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –40 –39 –39 –32
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –22 –23 –17 –16
Unemployment, next 12 m. 34 15 13 7 9
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –17 –53 –50 –45 –49
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –30 –21 –30 –34
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2017
  • (2) The indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2017).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Revisions

Compared to the previous estimation, the households' confidence index in November 2017 has been slightly revised upwards (+1 point), as a result of updated seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Besides, long term averages have been updated, due to the annual reestimation of the seasonal adjustment models, along with the integration of an additionnal year in the calculation.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
:
Prochaine parution le : 09/01/2019 at 08:45 - December 2018