23 November 2017
2017- n° 309In November 2017, the business climate improves again in wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - November 2017
According to the managers surveyed in November 2017, the business climate remains favourable in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it has gained two points compared to September, and stands at 111, its highest point since the end of 2007. It has been above its long-term average (100) since January 2017.
- The balances concerning past activity remain above their average
- Activity prospects remain favourable
- Balances concerning employment at a high level
- Price rises reported again
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialised wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in November 2017, the business climate remains favourable in the wholesale trade sector. The composite indicator that measures it has gained two points compared to September, and stands at 111, its highest point since the end of 2007. It has been above its long-term average (100) since January 2017.
graphiqueChart_1 – Composite indicator
The turning-point indicator stays into the area of favourable economic outlook.
graphiqueChart_2 – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively –1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between -–0,3 et +0,3: short-term economic uncertainty.
The balances concerning past activity remain above their average
The balance concerning past sales has slightly increased, even if the one about export sales has declined. The balances on received merchandise from France or abroad are stable or practically. Each of the four balances remains significantly above its average.
Activity prospects remain favourable
Concerning the next few months, more wholesalers than in September have expected an increase in general business outlook, in their ordering intentions from France or abroad, and in their shipments abroad. The four balances are significantly above their average, the first two having reached their highest point since 2000.
Balances concerning employment at a high level
The balance of opinion concerning past workforce has increased and has reached a 16-year peak. The one about expected workforce has declined but remains high.
Price rises reported again
Both balances on past and expected prices have significantly recovered and stand close to their average from now on.
tableauTable_1 – Total wholesale trade
| Ave.* | May 17 | July 17 | Sept. 17 | Nov. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 110 | 109 | 111 |
| General outlook | –24 | –5 | 13 | 11 | 20 |
| Sales | –14 | –13 | –5 | –8 | –5 |
| export sales | –15 | –10 | –6 | –6 | –11 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –8 | –3 | –4 | –3 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –7 | –2 | –1 | –1 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –10 | –6 | –6 | –2 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –7 | –8 | –6 | –2 |
| Shipments abroad | –15 | –11 | –12 | –7 | –5 |
| Current stock | 8 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Past workforce | –1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 8 |
| Cash position | –10 | –3 | –4 | –5 | –3 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | –1 | –1 | –5 | 5 |
| Expecting selling prices | 15 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Raw agricultural products and live animals
In this sector, the balances concerning past sales in France and abroad have increased, the former staying below its average, the latter moving above. The balances on merchandise received from abroad has declined and the one about ordering intentions is virtually stable. Both stay above their standard level.
Food products and beverages
Slightly more wholesalers of the food sector than in September have declared a rise in their past sales, in their imports and in their ordering intentions. However, fewer of them have indicated an increase in their exports. The four balances remain above their long-term average.
Household goods
In the household goods sector, the balance concerning past sales has increased and has reached its average. The balances on foreign trade have declined while the one about ordering intentions has risen. These three balances stay above their mean level.
Capital goods in information and communication
In this sector, the balances on past sales and merchandise received from abroad have decreased, and stand below their average. The balance concerning exports has gone up but stays very low. The one about ordering intentions is practically stable above its mean level.
Other industrial capital goods
The balances concerning past activity and ordering intentions have increased and are higher than they have been since the beginning of 2008. Those concerning foreign trade have diminished again but stay above their average.
Other specialised wholesale trade
In this sector, more traders than in September have indicated an increase in their past sales, in their imports and in their ordering intentions. This last balance has reached its highest point since July 2001. The balance about exports has slightly declined. Past activity (sales) in capital goods.
graphiqueChart_3 – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableauTable_2 – Wholesale trade sectors
| Ave. * | May 17 | July 17 | Sept. 17 | Nov. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –30 | –30 | –18 | –15 |
| Export sales | –16 | –16 | –14 | –17 | –12 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –8 | –2 | –5 | –7 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –24 | –21 | –8 | –9 |
| Current stock | 5 | –21 | –9 | –1 | 2 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –14 | –5 | 2 | –9 | –7 |
| Export sales | –12 | –8 | –2 | 2 | –6 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –12 | –1 | 1 | 2 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –3 | –1 | –7 | –4 |
| Current stock | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | –1 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –19 | –13 | –13 | –10 |
| Export sales | –11 | –7 | 2 | –5 | –7 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –6 | –6 | –3 | 3 | –2 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –10 | –5 | –9 | –5 |
| Current stock | 12 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –7 | 0 | –1 | –10 |
| Export sales | –13 | –36 | –43 | –37 | –32 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | 4 | –4 | –11 | –14 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –1 | –6 | –3 | –2 |
| Current stock | 8 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –16 | –7 | 0 | –2 | 8 |
| Export sales | –21 | –6 | –2 | –6 | –8 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –7 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –11 | –7 | –7 | 0 |
| Current stock | 11 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –18 | –10 | –2 | –5 | 6 |
| Export sales | –19 | –8 | –4 | –5 | –6 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –4 | –3 | –3 | 3 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –11 | –2 | –4 | 5 |
| Current stock | 6 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 8 |
- * :average since September 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
