Insee conjoncture

In October 2017, households' confidence is back to its long term averageMonthly consumer confidence survey - October 2017

In October 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has declined for the fourth consecutive month: the synthetic index has lost 1 point and is back to 100, its long term average. It had been above this threshold since May 2017.

Informations rapides N° 284
No 284
Principaux indicateurs
Paru le : 27/10/2017
Prochaine parution le : 27/11/2018 at 08:45 - November 2018

In October 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has declined for the fourth consecutive month: the synthetic index has lost 1 point and is back to 100, its long term average. It had been above this threshold since May 2017.

Graph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Personal situation

Future financial situation: further deterioration

In October, households have been clearly less optimistic about their future financial situation: the corresponding balance has lost 3 points, as in September, and has moved further away from its long term average. Households' opinion on their past financial situation is almost stable (+1 point), after a 4-point drop in September. The corresponding balance has thus returned to its long term average.

The share of househoulds considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases has decreased in October (−3 points). However, the corresponding balance remains above its long term average.

Expected saving capacity: falling sharply

In October, households' opinion balance on their expected saving capacity has declined substantially (−5 points in October after −2 points in September). The corresponding balance has thus come back to its long term average. The opinion balance on their current saving capacity is almost stable (+1 point) and remains slightly above its long term average.

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save has tumbled in October: the corresponding balance has lost 8 points, after −3 in September. It is now well below its long term average.

Graph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Economic situation in France

Past standard of living in France: renewed optimism

In October, households' opinion on the past standard of living in France has improved slightly: the corresponding balance has gained 2 points and remains above its long term average. Households' balance of opinion on their future standard of living in France has levelled off in October (−1 point) after three consecutive months of decline. It remains slightly above its long term average.

Unemployment: steady fears

Households' fears concerning unemployment are left almost unchanged in October: the corresponding balance receded by 1 point, after a rise of 12 points in September. It stands well below its long-term average.

Expected Inflation: sharp increase

In October, households have been more numerous than in September to expect prices to increase during the next twelve months: the corresponding balance has increased by 9 points and has deviated further away from its long term average.

Households have also been more numerous than in September to consider that prices were on the rise during the last twelve months. The corresponding balance has risen by 3 points; but remains far below its long term average.

Graph3 – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Graph4 – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Table – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
Avg. (1) July 17 Aug. 17 Sept. 17 Oct. 17
Synthetic index (2) 100 104 103 101 100
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –18 –18 –22 –21
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –10 –9 –12 –15
Current saving capacity 8 12 12 10 11
Expected saving capacity –9 –4 –2 –4 –9
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 18 9 7 4 –4
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –14 –2 –3 –3 –6
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –38 –40 –41 –39
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –10 –19 –22 –23
Unemployment, next 12 m. 35 9 4 16 15
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –16 –54 –55 –53 –50
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –31 –33 –29 –20
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2016
  • (2) The indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2016).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)