24 October 2017
2017- n° 280In October 2017, industrialists forecast a further increase in overall and foreign
demand Quarterly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2017
In October 2017, the balances of industrialists' opinion on overall and foreign demand over the next three months have strongly increased compared to July. They reached their highest level since October 2000. Business managers remain upbeat on overall and foreign demand in the last three months; the corresponding balances remain considerably higher than their long-term average.
More and more industrialists anticipate an increase in demand
In October 2017, the balances of industrialists' opinion on overall and foreign demand over the next three months have strongly increased compared to July. They reached their highest level since October 2000. Business managers remain upbeat on overall and foreign demand in the last three months; the corresponding balances remain considerably higher than their long-term average.
graphiqueGraph 1 – Balance of opinion on past change in demand
Production equipment is operating at increasing capacity
In October 2017, the industrialists report that they have used their machinery and equipment slightly more than in July. The production capacity utilisation rate has increased by 0.3 points during the past three months: it reached 84.9%, steadily above its average between 1995 and 2007.
More industrialists than in July consider that they could not produce more if they received more orders: production bottlenecks have increased. The corresponding indicator is significantly above its long-term average. The proportion of industrialists indicating difficulties of supply has increased substantially, that of industrialists reporting only difficulties of demand, already well below its long-term average, has continued to decline.
graphiqueGraph 2 – Production capacity utilisation rate
tableauTable 1 – Industrialists' opinion: demand and production factors
| Manufacturing industry | Mean | Jan. 17 | April 17 | July 17 | Oct. 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall demand | |||||
| Past change | 0 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 18 |
| Future change | 1 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 17 |
| Foreign demand | |||||
| Past change | 2 | 13 | 8 | 20 | 20 |
| Future change | 4 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 21 |
| Production factors | |||||
| Production bottlenecks (in %) | 22 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 32 |
| Assessment of productive capacity | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | –3 |
| Production capacity utilisation rate (in %) | 82,9 | 84,0 | 83,8 | 84,6 | 84,9 |
| Difficulties of supply and demand (in %) | |||||
| Difficulties of supply and demand | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| Difficulties of supply only | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 34 |
| Difficulties of demand only | 44 | 34 | 32 | 31 | 27 |
- *: Long-term average since 1976, except for questions on difficulties of supply and demand.
- The results of the last survey are preliminary.
- Source: INSEE - Quarterly business survey in industry
The balances of opinion on workforce size trends reach their highest level since July 2011
In October 2017, for the first time since the summer of 2011, more industrialists have reported an increase in their workforce size rather than a decrease in the last three months. More of them also forecast more job growth than job cuts over the next three months. Both corresponding balances have hit their highest level since July 2011.
Two out of five industrialists have experienced hiring difficulties; consistently increasing since the beginning of the year, this share reached its highest level since April 2008.
graphiqueGraph 3 – Opinion on workforce size in the manufacturing industry
Slight increase in past selling prices
According to industrialists, selling prices in the manufacturing industry have slightly accelerated in Q3 2017 (+0.7% after +0.2%). Business managers forecast a further small increase in Q4 2017 (+0.1%).
Only 10% of the industrialists have experienced cash-flow problems, a level virtually stable since April 2013, below its long-term mean (14%).
General exportation expectations have risen again
Industrialists are increasingly upbeat on general exportation expectations: the corresponding balance of opinion has continued to increase and is at its highest level since October 2000. Industrialists' opinion on their competitive position has improved regarding the domestic market, but it has faltered regarding foreign markets (inside and outside the EU). These three balances remain above their long-term average.
graphiqueGraph 4 – Competitive position
tableauTable 2 – Industrialists' opinion: employment, competitive position, cash-flow and selling prices
| Manufacturing industry | Mean | Jan. 17 | April 17 | July 17 | Oct. 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workforce size | |||||
| Past change | –11 | –3 | –2 | 0 | 4 |
| Expected change | –12 | –4 | –3 | 0 | 1 |
| Difficulties hiring (in %) | 28 | 27 | 31 | 40 | 42 |
| Selling prices and cash-flow | |||||
| Past change on selling prices | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| Expected change on selling prices | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Cash-flow problems (in %) | 14 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Competitive position | |||||
| On domestic market | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| On foreign markets inside EU | –1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| On foreign markets outside EU | –2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | –1 |
| General exportation expectations | –9 | 3 | –4 | 13 | 20 |
- *: Long-term average since 1976, except for workforce change (since 1976) and for competitive position by market (since 1997).
- The results of the last survey are preliminary.
- A quantitative question is asked about selling prices.
- Source: INSEE - Quarterly business survey in industry
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,174 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Industry
