Insee conjoncture

In September 2017, households' confidence declines againMonthly consumer confidence survey - September 2017

In September 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has declined for the third consecutive month: the synthetic index has lost 2 points and reached 101. It remains slightly above its long term average (100).

Informations rapides N° 256
No 256
Principaux indicateurs
Paru le : 27/09/2017
Prochaine parution le : 09/01/2019 at 08:45 - December 2018

In September 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has declined for the third consecutive month: the synthetic index has lost 2 points and reached 101. It remains slightly above its long term average (100).

Graph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Personal situation

Future and past financial situation: deterioration

In September, households have been a bit less optimistic about their future financial situation: the corresponding balance has lost 2 points and moved away from its long term average. Households' opinion on their past financial situation has worsened even more: the balance has lost 4 points after being stable in August and has returned just below its long term average.

However, the share of househoulds considering it is a suitable time to make major purchases has been virtually stable in September. Thus, the corresponding balance remains clearly above its long term average.

Expected and current saving capacity: declining

In September, households' opinion balance on their expected saving capacity has edged down and so has the one on their current saving capacity (−2 points for each balance). However, both balances remain above their long term average.

The share of households considering it is a suitable time to save has declined in September (−3 points). The balance is clearly below its long term average.

Graph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Economic situation in France

Future standard of living in France: the balance gets back to its level of April 2017

In September, households' opinion on the future standard of living in France has deteriorated again: by losing 3 points, the corresponding balance has returned to its level of April 2017 and got closer to its long term average. Households' balance of opinion on their past standard of living in France is virtually stable (−1 point in September, like in August) and stays slightly above its long term average.

Unemployment: fears rising sharply

Households' fears concerning unemployment trend have bounced back: the corresponding balance has gained 12 points and returned to its level of April 2017. It is however way below its long-term average.

Inflation expected on the rise

In September, households have been more numerous than in August to expect prices to increase during the next twelve months: the corresponding balance has increased by 3 points and moved further away from its long term average.

However households have been as numerous as in August to consider that prices were on the rise during the last twelve months. The corresponding balance stays far below its long term average.

Graph3 – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Graph4 – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Table – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
Avg. (1) June 17 July 17 August 17 Sept. 17
Synthetic index (2) 100 108 104 103 101
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –14 –18 –18 –22
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –3 –10 –9 –11
Current saving capacity 8 14 12 12 10
Expected saving capacity –9 1 –3 –1 –3
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 18 7 9 7 4
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –14 –1 –1 –3 –2
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –39 –39 –40 –41
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 0 –10 –19 –22
Unemployment, next 12 m. 35 6 9 3 15
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –16 –54 –54 –55 –55
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –41 –32 –33 –30
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2016
  • (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2016).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)