25 July 2017

2017- n° 189

In July 2017, the business climate in manufacturing is stable significantly above normal Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - July 2017

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2017, the business climate in industry is stable. At 109, it is significantly above its long-term average (100).

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating a favourable economic outlook.

In July 2017, the balance of industrialists' opinion on their past activity is virtually stable while that on personal production expectations has slightly fallen back. However, both remain significantly above their normal level.

Furthermore, business managers are much more upbeat than in June on general production prospects for the sector. The corresponding balance has improved further and has reached its highest level since December 2000, significantly above its long-term average.

In July 2017, the balances of opinion on global and export order books are stable, significantly above normal.

Finally, almost as industrialists as in June consider that finished-goods inventories are below normal: the corresponding balance remains below its long-term average.

The business climate in manufacturing in June 2017 has been revised from its first estimation last month, from 108 to 109, mainly due to late answers from businesses that have been taken into account.

In July, the stability in the business climate in industry especially comes from a slight decrease in food products and beverages and in “other manufacturing”, offset by an improvement in machinery and equipment goods and in transport equipment.

In July, the business climate in the manufacture of food products and beverages has decreased by three points albeit remaining at a level, 110, significantly above normal. This decline mainly comes from a decrease in the balance of opinion on global order books.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate has increased by one point and has returned to its May's level, that is its highest level since March 2008, significantly above normal. This slight increase comes from a rebound in the balance of opinion on past activity.

The business climate has slightly improved and remains at its highest level since June 2011 in electrical equipment. It is virtually stable in the computer, electronic and optical product industry and stable in machinery and equipment.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has increased by three points and has reached a level, 108, significantly above its long-term average. This increased mainly comes from a rebound in the balances of opinion on global and export order books.

The business climate has improved in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers while it is stable in other transport equipment.

In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate has decreased by one point after having reached its highest level since June 2011. At 107, it remains significantly above normal. This slight fall comes from a decline in the balances of opinion on past activity and on export order books.

In particular, the business climate has worsened in basic metals and has fallen back below normal in “other manufacturing industries”. It is virtually stable in clothing-textiles. However, it has improved further in wood-paper and has reached its highest level since November 2000. It has improved again in rubber and plastic products, where it remains at its highest level for more than six years, and in chemicals.