In May 2017, households' confidence returns to a level unseen since August 2007Monthly consumer confidence survey - May 2017

In May 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has improved anew after a four-month stability: the synthetic index has gained 2 points, reaching 102, above its long-term average and at its highest level since August 2007.

Informations rapides
No 141
Paru le : 30/05/2017
Prochaine parution le : 27/09/2017 at 08:45 - September 2017

In May 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has improved anew after a four-month stability: the synthetic index has gained 2 points, reaching 102, above its long-term average and at its highest level since August 2007.

Graph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Personal situation

Future financial situation: sharp improvement

In May, households' opinion on their future financial situation has improved markedly: the corresponding balance has gained 4 points and went back to its long-term average, to which it has been inferior since September 2007. Households' opinion on their past financial situation is virtually stable: the corresponding balance has gained 1 point. It stands a little above its long-term average and at its highest level since September 2007.

However, households are less numerous to consider it has been a suitable time to make major purchases: the corresponding balance has lost 7 points and stands at its lowest since April 2016. Yet, it remains above its long-term average.

Saving capacity: near stability

In May, households' opinion on their current saving capacity is virtually stable (+1 point). Households' opinion on their expected saving capacity is unchanged. Both balances stand above their long-term average.

The share of households considering it has been a suitable time to save is almost unchanged compared to last month: the corresponding balance has gained 1 point but stays largely below its long-term average.

Graph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Economic situation in France

Standard of living in France: renewed optimism

In May, households' balances of opinion on the past and future standard of living in France have gone up sharply: both have gained 5 points. The balance of opinion on the past standard of living in France stands at its highest since July 2007 but remains slightly inferior to its long-term average. The balance of opinion on the future standard of living in France has hit its highest since August 2007, above its long-term average. A peak of relative optimism was similarly recorded on this variable for previous presidential elections (see C onjoncture in France, March 2017, p.91-9 3).

Unemployment: fears at their lowest since June 2008

Households' fears concerning unemployment are stable in May. The corresponding balance thus remains clearly above its long-term average, at its lowest level since June 2008.

Perceived and expected inflation declining

In May, households are less numerous to consider that prices were on the rise in the past twelve months: the corresponding balance has fallen by 5 points, at its lowest level since April 2016, and is far below its long-term average.

Households are also less numerous to expect prices to increase during the next twelve months: the corresponding balance has lost 6 points and went back to its long-term average.

Graph3 – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Graph4 – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Table – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
Avg. (1) Feb. 17 March 17 April 17 May 17
Synthetic index (2) 100 100 100 100 102
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –22 –21 –20 –19
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –6 –7 –9 –5
Current saving capacity 8 11 12 13 14
Expected saving capacity –9 –2 –3 –2 –2
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 18 3 5 5 6
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –14 –1 –7 –4 –11
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –49 –48 –51 –46
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –23 –23 –21 –16
Unemployment, next 12 m. 35 19 20 16 16
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –16 –47 –46 –50 –55
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –30 –26 –28 –34
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2016
  • (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2016).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)