In May 2017, the business climate gets better in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehiclesMonthly survey of retailing - May 2017

According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has got better in May 2017. The composite indicator that measures it has gained two points compared to April and stands at 104. It has remained above its long-term average (100) or equal to it since May 2015.

Informations rapides
No 136
Paru le : 23/05/2017
Prochaine parution le : 24/08/2017 at 08:45 - August 2017

According to the managers in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has got better in May 2017. The composite indicator that measures it has gained two points compared to April and stands at 104. It has remained above its long-term average (100) or equal to it since May 2015.

Chart_1 – Business climate synthetic indicator

More retailers indicate a rise in their past sales

More managers than in April have declared a rise in their recent sales; the corresponding balance has recovered and has gone back slightly above its average. They remain optimistic for the next few months: each of the balances on ordering intentions and general business outlook has risen while it was already above its average. The balance on expected sales has slightly declined but remains above its average.

The level of stocks is estimated lower, below its standard level from now on. More traders than on the last interrogation have indicated a fall in their past and future prices.

The balance concerning cash position has improved a little, slightly above its mean level.

Table_1 – Tendency in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Tendency in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
Ave. (1) Feb. 17 Mar. 17 Apr. 17 May 17
Business climate 100 104 106 102 104
General business outlook –29 –20 –21 –18 –16
Recent sales –7 5 –2 –12 –5
Expected sales –2 2 4 4 2
Ordering intentions –8 –3 –1 –5 –1
Stocks 11 11 11 16 9
Past selling prices (2) –6 0 –5
Expected selling prices –3 –4 0 –3 –9
Cash position (2) –15 –14 –13
Workforce size: recent trend 1 –3 2 –1 –1
Workforce size: future trend –3 –4 –1 –5 –5
  • (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
  • (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Chart_2 – Recent sales and ordering intentions

Stability in balances concerning employment

The balances concerning employment, past as well as expected, are unchanged. Both balances remain slightly below their average.

Revisions

The business climate of April 2017 has been revised downward by one point since its first estimate. This decrease is due to late answers from businesses which have been taken into account, especially in the retail trade.

In retail trade, the business climate stands at its average

In retail trade, the business climate is practically stable: the composite indicator that measures it has gained one point and stands at its long-term average (100).

In non-specialised retail trade, the balance concerning past sales has significantly recovered after a fall in April, and has gone above its average again. In non-specialised trade, this balance has remained very low for three months; in May it is especially low in domestic goods and pharmaceutical-orthopaedics sectors.

Overall, virtually as many retailers as in April expect an increase in their sales, and more of them anticipate a rise in their orders. Both balances stand above their average. The level of stocks is considered much lower, the balance going below its standard level again. More retailers than on the last interrogation have indicated a decline in their prices, over the past as well as over the next few months. The balance on cash position has been at its average since the beginning of the year.

In trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has slightly weakened

In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate indicator stands at 109 in May 2017. It has lost two points again compared to the previous month, but it still stands significantly above its mean level, which it has exceeded since the end of 2014.

The balances concerning past sales, expected sales and ordering intentions have decreased, but each of them still stands above its average. The level of stocks has been considered above its standard level for the fourth month in a row.

The balance on past prices has diminished, the one about expected prices is virtually stable. The cash situation is estimated slightly less easy than in March.

Chart_3 – Recent sales and ordering intentions in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Chart_4 – Business climate synthetic indicator in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Table_2 – Detailed data

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Detailed data
Ave. (1) Feb. 17 Mar. 17 Apr. 17 May 17
Retail trade - Global data
Business climate 100 100 102 99 100
Gener. busin. outlook –30 –23 –23 –20 –18
Recent sales –6 5 –6 –21 –9
Expected sales 0 2 3 3 4
Ordering intentions –7 –3 –3 –7 0
Stocks 10 7 7 13 5
Past selling prices (2) –9 –4 –8
Expected selling prices –5 –8 –2 –5 –12
Cash position (2) –13 –13 –13
Workforce size: recent trend 2 –3 3 0 0
Workforce size: future trend –2 –4 –2 –5 –5
Non-specialised retail trade
Recent sales –2 20 7 –20 4
Expected sales 6 14 15 14 14
Ordering intentions 1 5 9 2 13
Stocks 7 5 3 16 4
Past selling prices (2) –9 –2 –8
Expected selling prices –5 –12 3 –1 –14
Cash position (2) –7 –6 –6
Specialised retail trade
Recent sales –12 –14 –22 –24 –25
Expected sales –8 –14 –12 –10 –9
Ordering intentions –17 –11 –19 –17 –17
Stocks 13 11 12 8 5
Past selling prices (2) –8 –6 –7
Expected selling prices –5 –3 –9 –9 –11
Cash position (2) –23 –22 –21
Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles
Business climate 100 110 113 111 109
Gener. busin. outlook –29 –11 –11 –13 –9
Recent sales –8 7 7 10 4
Expected sales –7 2 7 3 –4
Ordering intentions –11 –5 4 3 –4
Stocks 15 18 19 20 21
Past selling prices (2) 1 8 3
Expected selling prices 4 8 6 1 2
Cash position (2) –24 –13 –15
Workforce size: recent trend –9 –6 –2 –3 –3
Workforce size: future trend –7 0 5 0 –1
  • (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
  • (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles