16 May 2017
2017- n° 128In 2016, GDP grew by 1.2% in real terms Annual national accounts - Revision of the main aggregates - year 2016
Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated at +1.2% in volume* terms in 2016 (+1.1% in working-day adjusted data, as in the previous estimate of quarterly national accounts). Households' final consumption expenditure accelerated sharply (+2.3% after +1.4% in 2015), as well as investment (+2.8% after +1.0%). Final domestic demand excluding change in inventories contributed for +2.1 points to GDP growth, considerably more than in 2015 (+1.3 points). Conversely, foreign trade balance weighed more (−0.8 points after −0.5 points). Changes in inventories contributed for −0.2 points (after +0.3 points).
Warning: due to the new publication schedule of quaterly accounts, the complete revised estimates of annual and quarterly national accounts for years 2014-2016 will be published on 30 May 2017. This release presents the new estimates for gross domestic product (GDP) and the main aggregates (not working-day adjusted). A working-day adjusted estimate is also given for GDP, to allow for a better comparison with the annual working-day adjusted growth rate for 2016 published on 28 April 2017 with the first estimate of quarterly national accounts for Q1 2017.
Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated at +1.2% in volume* terms in 2016 (+1.1% in working-day adjusted data, as in the previous estimate of quarterly national accounts). Households' final consumption expenditure accelerated sharply (+2.3% after +1.4% in 2015), as well as investment (+2.8% after +1.0%). Final domestic demand excluding change in inventories contributed for +2.1 points to GDP growth, considerably more than in 2015 (+1.3 points). Conversely, foreign trade balance weighed more (−0.8 points after −0.5 points). Changes in inventories contributed for −0.2 points (after +0.3 points).
* Volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
tableauTab1 – GDP and its components in volume
| Previous estimates | New estimates | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| GDP | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | |
| working-day adjusted GDP | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Imports | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 4.2 | |
| Households consumption expenditure | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.3 | |
| Government consumption expenditure | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | |
| GFCF | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.8 | |
| of which NFCs* | 1.6 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.6 | |
| of which households | -3.5 | -0.8 | -3.0 | -2.1 | 2.4 | |
| Of which government | -5.7 | -3.8 | -5.3 | -3.0 | -0.1 | |
| Exports | 3.3 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | |
| Contributions : | ||||||
| Final domestic demand excluding inventory changes | 0.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.1 | |
| Inventory changes | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.2 | |
| Net foreign trade | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.8 | |
- *NFCs : non-financial corporations
- Source: INSEE - National accounts
tableauTab2 – Level of GDP
| Previous estimates | New estimates | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2015 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | ||
| GDP in current euros | 2140.0 | 2181.1 | 2147.6 | 2194.2 | 2228.9 | |
| GDP in 2010 euros | 2068.6 | 2095.0 | 2075.0 | 2097.2 | 2122.1 | |
- Source: INSEE - National accounts
General government deficit reached 3.4% of GDP in 2016. General government public debt reached 96.3% of GDP at the end of 2016, instead of 96.0% in the previous release.
tableauTab3 – General government accounts
| Estimates released on March 24th 2017 | New estimates | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| Deficit/GDP | -3.9 | -3.6 | -3.4 | -3.9 | -3.6 | -3.4 |
| Gross debt/GDP | 94.9 | 95.6 | 96.0 | 94.9 | 95.6 | 96.3 |
| Expenditure/GDP | 57.1 | 56.7 | 56.2 | 57.1 | 56.7 | 56.4 |
| Receipts/GDP | 53.2 | 53.1 | 52.8 | 53.2 | 53.1 | 53.0 |
| Taxes/GDP | 44.6 | 44.4 | 44.3 | 44.6 | 44.4 | 44.4 |
- Note : public finances ratios of 2014 and 2015 published on 24 March 2017 already relied on the new estimates of GDP in current prices.
- Source: INSEE - National accounts
The puschasing power of housholds' gross disposable accelerated (+1.8% after +0.8% in 2015) thanks to more dynamic earned income. The gross profit rate of non financial corporations (NFCs) held steady at 31.9%: certainly, real wages increased while productivity in NFCs was almost stable, but change in the terms of trade and measures to reduce labour costs (in particular reductions in social contributions under the Pacte de responsabilité et de solidarité) have had a favorable effect on the gross profit rate.
tableauTab4 – Households accounts
| Previous estimates | New estimates | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| Households purchasing power | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | |
| Purchasing power by consumption unit | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.4 | |
| Savings ratio (level) | 14.4 | 14.5 | 14.7 | 14.3 | 13.9 | |
- Source: INSEE - National accounts
tableauTab5 – Non-financial corporations accounts
| Previous estimates | New estimates | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| Gross profit rate | 30.4 | 31.4 | 30.4 | 31.9 | 31.9 | |
| Investment rate | 22.8 | 22.9 | 22.8 | 22.9 | 23.3 | |
| Self-financing ratio | 76.0 | 86.3 | 76.5 | 84.6 | 84.7 | |
- Source: INSEE - National accounts
Revisions on years 2015 and 2014
GDP growth for 2015 is revised by −0.2 points to +1.1% in raw data (+1.0% in working-day adjusted data). The foreign trade balance is more deteriorated than initially estimated: its contribution to growth is revised from −0.3 points to −0.5 points. Growth in volume terms for imports and even more for exports is markedly revised downwards, mainly due to more dynamic price estimates. Domestic demand is slightly lowered, mainly households' and general government' consumption. The overall investment is not revised; non-financial corporations' GFCF has remained increasing.
Conversely, GDP growth in current euros in 2015 is revised by +0.3 points to +2.2%, in particular as a result of upwards revisions in the prices of financial services consumption. The gross profit rate of NFCs is revised by +0.5 points to 31.9%. but households' purchasing power gains are revised downwards (+0.8% instead of +1.6%).
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