13 April 2017

2017- n° 99

In March 2017, consumer prices rose by 0.6% over a month and by 1.1% year on year Consumer price index - final results - March 2017

In March 2017, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) accelerated to +0.6% over a month after a weak rebound by 0.1% in February. Seasonally adjusted, it was stable, after having decreased by 0.2% in February. Year on year, consumer prices slowed down slightly (+1.2% after +1.3%).

Over a month, the acceleration resulted from a rebound in the prices of manufactured products after the end of winter sales and from a further rise in tobacco prices. Contrariwise, food prices slipped back due to fresh products. Energy prices fell too, because of a downturn in petroleum product prices. Besides, services prices were at a standstill.

In March 2017, manufactured product prices recovered sharply after the end of winter sales. As sales ended later than last year, the rebound was more pronounced this year (+2.5% versus +1.9% in March 2016). Year on year, the fall in prices eased (−1.0% after −1.6% in February) but it was stronger than in March 2016 (−0.2% in March 2016). Over a month, clothing and footwear prices bounced back strongly (+14.5% after −2.2%). The prices of other manufactured products gathered pace (+0.6% after +0.1%; −0.7% year on year), driven by a rebound in the prices of furniture and furnishings (+3.7%), major household appliances (+0.7%) equipment for sport (+4.1%) and travel goods (+ 3.6%). The decline in the price of new motor cars softened the overall upturn in the prices of other manufactured products. The prices of health products declined again (−0.3% after -0.2%, −2.5% year on year).

In March 2017, the price of tobacco rose by 1.8%, as a result of the tax increase that occurred in February. Year on year, it accelerated sharply (+2.8% after +1.0% in February).

In March 2017 food prices edged down (−0.3%) after a rebound of the same magnitude in February (+0.3%). Indeed, fresh food prices fell back significantly (−2.4% after +1.8%). Excluding fresh products, food prices barely rose (+0.1%) after being stable in February. Year on year, food prices slowed down (+0.8% after +1,6%).

In March 2017, energy prices decreased after being stable in February. Over a year, the rise in prices eased: +9.9% in March after +11.4% in February.

This price downturn is mostly due to that in petroleum products prices (−1.6% after +0.2%; +17.0% year on year), in the wake of Brent crude price. It is partially offset by a rebound in the prices of natural gas and city gas (+2.4% after −0.5%; +8.6% year on year). Electricity prices have been stable since September 2016 (−0.3% year on year).

In March 2017, the prices of services were at a standstill (+0.1% month on month after +0.3% in February,) but increased again by 1.1% year on year. Over the month, this deceleration came from a downturn in airfares (−0.9%; +1.4% over a year) and in package holiday prices (−3.5%; +1.9% year on year). The stability in the prices of communication services after their last month's rebound and a smaller rise in the prices of health services (+0.1% after +0.2%) also contributed to the overall slowdown. However, car insurance prices accelerated vigorously (+2.7% after +0.4% last month, reaching +3.3% year-on-year), owing to the end of sales and because some insurers postponed the rise in the terrorist attack tax.

In March 2017, the core inflation indicator (ISJ) bounced back to +0.2% over a month after a decrease of 0.4% in February. Year on year, it slightly accelerated (+0.4% after +0.2%). The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased more markedly than in February (+0.7% after +0.2% over a month); over a year, it rose at the same pace as in February (+1.4%).

Compared with the provisional estimates published on 31 March 2017, the year-on-year and month-on-month variations in the CPI and the HICP are unchanged.