Purchasing power slows down, while the outlook remains positiveConjoncture in France - March 2017

Vladimir Passeron - Dorian Roucher - Bruno Patier - Bastien Virely

In H1 2017, French GDP growth should remain solid in early 2017 (+0.3% in Q1 then +0.5% in Q2), returning to a comparable rate to that of the Eurozone. The annual growth overhang in gross domestic product for 2017 should be +1.1% in mid-year Companies are likely to be ready to invest again. In addition to this, exports should maintain the impetus they picked up at the end of 2016. Foreign trade should thus contribute much less negatively to growth than in 2016. With purchasing power gains being reduced by the upturn in inflation, French households are likely to slow the rate of their consumption a little while saving a little less. The pace of their investment in housing should remain dynamic. Total employment should progress by 93,000 over the first half of the year and the unemployment rate is set to continue falling slowly, to 9.8% in mid-2017.