28 February 2017

2017- n° 53

French GDP increased by 0.4% in Q4 2016 and by 1.1% over the year Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - fourth quarter 2016

In Q4 2016, GDP in volume terms* accelerated: +0.4%, after +0.2% in Q3. On average over the year, GDP rose by 1.1%, practically as much as in 2015 (+1.2%). Without working day adjustment, GDP growth amounts to +1.2% in 2016, after +1.3% in 2015.

Household consumption expenditures accelerated in Q4 (+0.6% after +0.1%), as well as total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF; +0.4% after +0.2%). All in all, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes gathered momentum, contributing more to GDP growth: +0.5 points after +0.2 points.

Exports were more dynamic (+1.3% after +0.8%) while imports slowed down (+1.0% after +2.7%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed slightly to GDP growth in Q4: +0.1 points after −0.6 points. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively (−0.1 points after +0.7 points).

Total production in goods and services accelerated slightly in Q4 (+0.6% after +0.5%), thanks to a strong rebound in energy (+2.3% after −2.3%). It rose slightly more than in Q3 in manufacturing industry (+0.8% after +0.7%) and increased at the same pace in market services (+0.6%). By contrast, activity in construction decelerated (+0.2% after +0.9%).

On average over the year, total production increased a little more than in 2015 (+1.4% after +1.3%): it bounced back in construction (+0.7% after −2.2%) and accelerated in market services (+2.2% after +1.8%), but it slowed down in energy (+1.2% after +1.8%) and in the manufacturing industry (+0.6% after +1.5%). Agricultural production decreased sharply (−5.7% after −2.2%), due to adverse weather conditions.

Household consumption accelerated in Q4 2016 (+0.6% after +0.1%). Expenditure in engineered goods bounced back (+0.9% after −1.1%), particularly in cars. Energy consumption accelerated sharply (+3.7% after −1.5%), mainly due to gas and electricity, because temperatures were below the seasonal norms. However, services consumption slowed a little (+0.3% after +0.5%).

On average over the year, household consumption rose more in 2016 than in 2015 (+1.8% after +1.5%), notably buoyed by household expenditure in home equipment in the first half of 2016.

In Q4, total GFCF accelerated slightly (+0.4% after +0.2%), because of non-financial corporations. Investment in manufactured goods rebounded sharply (+1.3% after −2.4%), mainly in transport equipment. However, investment in market services slowed down (+0.3% after +1.3%), as that in construction (0.0% after +0.6%), notably due to the decrease in civil engineering.

Over the whole of 2016, total GFCF accelerated sharply: +2.7% after +0.9%.

In Q4, exports accelerated (+1.3% after +0.8%), notably in transport equipment. In the same time, imports decelerated (+1.0% after +2.7%). In particular, raw hydrocarbons and manufactured goods purchases slowed sharply. All in all, external exchanges provided a slightly positive contribution to GDP growth: +0.1 points after −0.6 points.

On average over the year 2016, imports slowed down (+3.7% after +6.4%), but much less than exports (+1.1% after +6.0%). Consequently, foreign trade balance contributed more negatively to GDP growth in 2016 than in 2015 (−0.8 points after −0.3 points).

In Q4 2016, the contribution of changes in inventories to GDP growth was −0.1 points (after +0.7 points), mainly due to “other industrial products” (pharmacy and steel products notably).

Over the year, the contribution of changes in inventories to GDP growth was neutral, after +0.2 points in 2015.

The estimate of GDP growth in Q4 2016 is confirmed at +0.4%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the integration of new indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.