27 January 2017
2017- n° 23In January 2017, developers' opinion on demand for new dwellings is stable Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - January 2017
In January 2017, as many developers as in October estimate that demand for new dwellings is high. After recovering by 25 points between January and July 2016, the corresponding balance has stabilized ever since, at a slightly higher level than its long-term average.
In January 2017, as many developers as in October estimate that demand for new dwellings is high. After recovering by 25 points between January and July 2016, the corresponding balance has stabilized ever since, at a slightly higher level than its long-term average.
Expected housing starts are virtually stable
In January 2017, the outlook for housing starts for the next three months is virtually stable, above normal. After a fall in October, the balance on housing starts for sale has recovered. However, the one for rent has decreased again. At the same time, more developers than in October indicate a decrease in unsold dwelling stocks. The corresponding balance has decreased regularly since April 2016 and has returned to its long-term average.
More developers indicate an increase in the average housing price
More developers than in the previous survey indicate a rise in the average price of new dwellings for sale; the corresponding balance of opinion has increased since January 2015 and has outstripped its long-term average since January 2017. About funding, more developers than in October consider that downpayment to acquire a new dwelling has increased during the last months; the corresponding balance is well above its long-term average. However, fewer developers think that the financing capacity to purchase new housing will increase over the next quarter; the corresponding balance remains nonetheless well above its long-term average.
tableauTable1 – Real-estate development economic outlook
| Mean* | April 16 | July 16 | Oct. 16 | Jan. 17 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | –9 | –9 | –6 | –7 | –7 |
| Expected housing starts | –7 | –6 | 6 | –2 | –1 |
| - for sale | –15 | –8 | 8 | –2 | 1 |
| - for rent | 0 | –6 | 4 | 0 | –4 |
| Unsold dwelling stock tendency | –26 | –20 | –22 | –23 | –26 |
| Housing average price for sale | 4 | –10 | –6 | 0 | 7 |
| Downpayment | –20 | –10 | –10 | –12 | –5 |
| Financing capacity | –22 | –1 | –5 | 2 | –6 |
- * Mean since July 1991.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
graphiqueGraph1 – New dwelling demand tendency
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