In January 2017, households' confidence is back to its long-term averageMonthly consumer confidence survey - January 2017

In January 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has increased slightly after two months of stability: the synthetic confidence index has reached 100, its long-term average. It had been below this threshold since November 2007.

Informations rapides
No 22
Paru le : 27/01/2017
Prochaine parution le : 28/11/2017 at 08:45 - November 2017

In January 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has increased slightly after two months of stability: the synthetic confidence index has reached 100, its long-term average. It had been below this threshold since November 2007.

Graph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Personal situation

Future financial situation: on the rise

In January, households' opinion on their future personal financial situation has improved: the corresponding balance has gained 3 points and is back to its long-term average. It had not reached that level since September 2007. Households' opinion on their past personal financial situation is stable. The corresponding balance is barely below its long-term average.

In January, the share of households considering it has been a suitable time to make major purchases is virtually stable. The corresponding balance has lost 1 point but remains well above its long-term average.

Saving capacity: virtually stable

Since September 2016, households' balance of opinion on their expected saving capacity has been virtually stable, fluctuating slightly above its long-term average: in January 2017, it has gained 1 point. The balance of opinion concerning their current saving capacity has been stable for three months, just below its long-term average.

Households are more numerous to consider it has been a suitable time to save: the corresponding balance has regained the 5 points lost in December. It remains clearly below its long-term average.

Graph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Economic situation in France

Past standard of living: a more favourable assessment

In January, households' opinion on their past standard of living in France has recovered after getting worse in December: the corresponding balance has gained 4 points and is back to its May 2016 level, but it remains below its long-term average. They expressed a relatively measured confidence in the expected standard of living in France: virtually stable (−1 point), the balance is at its long-term average.

Unemployment: fears at the bottom since mid-2008

Households' fears concerning unemployment has lessened again in January (−3 points), after having fallen sharply since October. The corresponding balance has deviated further from its long-term average and stands at its lowest level since June 2008.

Perceived and expected inflation: rising

In January, households are more numerous than in December to consider that prices should increase during the next 12 months: the balance has risen by 4 points (after +12 points the previous month). This balance is at its highest since February 2014, and has exceeded even more its long-term average. Likewise, households are more numerous to consider that prices increased during the past 12 months: the corresponding balance has gained 4 points. The balance is at its highest since late 2014, but yet remains far below its long-term average.

Graph3 – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Graph4 – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Table – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
2016 2017
Av. (1) Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
Synthetic index (2) 100 98 99 99 100
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –23 –24 –22 –22
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –7 –8 –8 –5
Current saving capacity 8 6 7 7 7
Expected saving capacity –9 –7 –6 –7 –6
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 18 –2 –2 –7 –2
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –14 –5 –5 –4 –5
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –53 –49 –52 –48
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –28 –25 –24 –25
Unemployment, next 12 m. 35 38 26 21 18
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –16 –51 –51 –48 –44
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –36 –40 –28 –24
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2016
  • (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2016).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)