27 January 2017
2017- n° 22In January 2017, households' confidence is back to its long-term average Monthly consumer confidence survey - January 2017
In January 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has increased slightly after two months of stability: the synthetic confidence index has reached 100, its long-term average. It had been below this threshold since November 2007.
In January 2017, households' confidence in the economic situation has increased slightly after two months of stability: the synthetic confidence index has reached 100, its long-term average. It had been below this threshold since November 2007.
graphiqueGraph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index
- Source: INSEE
Personal situation
Future financial situation: on the rise
In January, households' opinion on their future personal financial situation has improved: the corresponding balance has gained 3 points and is back to its long-term average. It had not reached that level since September 2007. Households' opinion on their past personal financial situation is stable. The corresponding balance is barely below its long-term average.
In January, the share of households considering it has been a suitable time to make major purchases is virtually stable. The corresponding balance has lost 1 point but remains well above its long-term average.
Saving capacity: virtually stable
Since September 2016, households' balance of opinion on their expected saving capacity has been virtually stable, fluctuating slightly above its long-term average: in January 2017, it has gained 1 point. The balance of opinion concerning their current saving capacity has been stable for three months, just below its long-term average.
Households are more numerous to consider it has been a suitable time to save: the corresponding balance has regained the 5 points lost in December. It remains clearly below its long-term average.
graphiqueGraph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France
- Source: INSEE
Economic situation in France
Past standard of living: a more favourable assessment
In January, households' opinion on their past standard of living in France has recovered after getting worse in December: the corresponding balance has gained 4 points and is back to its May 2016 level, but it remains below its long-term average. They expressed a relatively measured confidence in the expected standard of living in France: virtually stable (−1 point), the balance is at its long-term average.
Unemployment: fears at the bottom since mid-2008
Households' fears concerning unemployment has lessened again in January (−3 points), after having fallen sharply since October. The corresponding balance has deviated further from its long-term average and stands at its lowest level since June 2008.
Perceived and expected inflation: rising
In January, households are more numerous than in December to consider that prices should increase during the next 12 months: the balance has risen by 4 points (after +12 points the previous month). This balance is at its highest since February 2014, and has exceeded even more its long-term average. Likewise, households are more numerous to consider that prices increased during the past 12 months: the corresponding balance has gained 4 points. The balance is at its highest since late 2014, but yet remains far below its long-term average.
graphiqueGraph3 – Households' unemployment expectations
- Source: INSEE
graphiqueGraph4 – Households' perception of prices
- Source: INSEE
tableauTable – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
| 2016 | 2017 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Av. (1) | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | |
| Synthetic index (2) | 100 | 98 | 99 | 99 | 100 |
| Financial sit., past 12 m. | –21 | –23 | –24 | –22 | –22 |
| Financial sit., next 12 m. | –5 | –7 | –8 | –8 | –5 |
| Current saving capacity | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Expected saving capacity | –9 | –7 | –6 | –7 | –6 |
| Savings intentions, next 12 m. | 18 | –2 | –2 | –7 | –2 |
| Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. | –14 | –5 | –5 | –4 | –5 |
| Standard of living, past 12 m. | –45 | –53 | –49 | –52 | –48 |
| Standard of living, next 12 m. | –25 | –28 | –25 | –24 | –25 |
| Unemployment, next 12 m. | 35 | 38 | 26 | 21 | 18 |
| Consumer prices, past 12 m. | –16 | –51 | –51 | –48 | –44 |
| Consumer prices, next 12 m. | –34 | –36 | –40 | –28 | –24 |
- (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2016
- (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2016).
- Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey
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