In January 2017, the business climate is virtually stable in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehiclesMonthly survey of retailing - January 2017

According to the managers surveyed in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate is virtually stable in January 2017. The composite indicator that measures it has lost one point and stands at 106. It has been above or equal to its average (100) since May 2015.

Informations rapides
No 20
Paru le : 25/01/2017
Prochaine parution le : 22/06/2017 at 08:45 - June 2017

According to the managers surveyed in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate is virtually stable in January 2017. The composite indicator that measures it has lost one point and stands at 106. It has been above or equal to its average (100) since May 2015.

Chart_1 – Business climate synthetic indicator

More traders indicate a rise in their past activity

Once again, more managers than last month have declared a rise in their past activity. The corresponding balance remains above its average. As for the next months, the balances concerning expected sales and ordering intentions have barely changed. The one concerning general business outlook has decreased after having risen for two months. Each of these three balances stays above its long-term average.

The balance about stocks is virtually stable, moderately below its standard level.

Slightly more traders than in December have expected to rise their prices on the next few months. The balances on past and expected prices stand above their average. The cash position is still considered as normal.

Table_1 – Tendancy in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Tendancy in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
Ave. (1) Oct. 16 Nov. 16 Dec. 16 Jan. 17
Business climate 100 100 104 107 106
General business outlook –30 –20 –12 –10 –14
Recent sales –7 –11 –7 –1 3
Expected sales –3 –2 4 6 4
Ordering intentions –8 –10 –8 0 1
Stocks 11 17 18 9 8
Past selling prices (2) –7 –6 –5
Expected selling prices –3 –8 –1 1 3
Cash position (2) –15 –15 –15
Workforce size: recent trend 1 –5 –3 –1 2
Workforce size: future trend –3 –4 –4 –3 –5
  • (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
  • (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Chart_2 – Recent sales and ordering intentions

The balance concerning past employment has returned to its average

The balance concerning recent workforce has risen, reaching its highest level since the mid of 2008, just above its average. By contrast, the expected workforce balance has declined, slightly below its mean level. In retail trade, these trends are the same. In trade and repair of motor vehicles, each of the two balances has been virtually stable and remains above its average.

In retail trade, the business climate has weakened

After having increased since October 2016, the business climate indicator has weakened in retail trade: it has lost two points and stands at 101 just above its long-term average (100).

In non-specialised trade, the balance concerning past sales is practically stable, well above its average. In specialised trade, this balance has continued to rise and has reached its mean level.

Overall, fewer retailers than in December expect a decrease in their sales and their orders. However, both balances remain above their average.

The level of stocks is declared lower than in December, still below its standard level.

Practically as many traders as in the last interrogation have noted a rise in their past and expected prices. The balances stand above their average.

The balance concerning the cash situation is roughly stable, close to normal.

In trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate remains favourable

In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate indicator is virtually stable at 110. It stands significantly above its mean level (100), which it has exceeded since the end of 2014.

The balance concerning past sales, already above its average, has increased again. Each of the three balances concerning expected sales, ordering intentions and general outlook has decreased a little but remains above its mean level.

The balance on the prices of the last few months has increased and the one about the next few months is practically stable: both stand near their average.

The cash flow situation is declared less easy.

Chart_3 – Recent sales and ordering intentions in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Chart_4 – Business climate synthetic indicator in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Table_2 – Detailed data

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Detailed data
Ave. (1) Oct. 16 Nov. 16 Dec. 16 Jan. 17
Retail trade - Global data
Business climate 100 97 100 103 101
Gener. busin. outlook –30 –22 –14 –12 –16
Recent sales –6 –14 –11 –2 1
Expected sales 0 –6 3 8 3
Ordering intentions –7 –14 –9 3 1
Stocks 10 16 18 8 6
Past selling prices (2) –9 –8 –7
Expected selling prices –5 –10 –2 –3 –2
Cash position (2) –13 –15 –14
Workforce size: recent trend 2 –4 –2 –2 2
Workforce size: future trend –2 –4 –5 –4 –7
Non-specialised retail trade
Recent sales –2 –2 0 12 11
Expected sales 6 –1 12 19 16
Ordering intentions 1 –10 –2 10 10
Stocks 7 18 20 9 5
Past selling prices (2) –9 –6 –7
Expected selling prices –5 –9 2 0 0
Cash position (2) –7 –9 –8
Specialised retail trade
Recent sales –11 –29 –25 –20 –11
Expected sales –8 –13 –4 –8 –13
Ordering intentions –17 –19 –19 –7 –8
Stocks 13 15 15 9 10
Past selling prices (2) –8 –10 –8
Expected selling prices –5 –10 –8 –6 –5
Cash position (2) –23 –24 –21
Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles
Business climate 100 108 110 111 110
Gener. busin. outlook –29 –12 –4 –4 –8
Recent sales –8 –2 5 2 9
Expected sales –7 9 3 9 7
Ordering intentions –11 –2 –3 –3 –6
Stocks 15 18 21 14 12
Past selling prices (2) 1 –3 0
Expected selling prices 4 1 3 5 4
Cash position (2) –24 –14 –19
Workforce size: recent trend –9 –5 –12 –2 –4
Workforce size: future trend –7 –2 1 –3 –2
  • (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
  • (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles