29 November 2016

2016- n° 310

French GDP increased by 0.2% in Q3 2016 Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - third quarter 2016

In Q3 2016, gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms* recovered moderately: +0.2%, after −0.1% in Q2.

Household consumption expenditure stagnated for the second quarter in a row, whereas gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased slightly (+0.2% after 0.0%). All in all, final domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) was virtually stable: it contributed to GDP growth for +0.1 points in Q3, as in the previous quarter.

Imports sharply bounced back (+2.5% after −1.7%). Exports recovered (+0.5% after −0.1%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.6 points after +0.5 points). Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively (+0.7 points after −0.7 points).

In Q3 2016, production in goods and services bounced back (+0.5% after −0.2%). It recovered in services (+0.7% after −0.1%) and it levelled off in goods (0.0% after −0.7%). Production began to increase again in construction (+1.0% after −0.3%). Output in manufactured goods recovered (+0.6% after −1.0%). In particular, it bounced back in coke and refined petroleum industry (+13.6% after −12.8%) after industrial action in May and June. However, output in transport equipment significantly fell back (−3.2% after +1.4%). Energy production shrank (−2.5% after +0.8%).

In Q3 2016, household consumption expenditure stagnated again. Expenditures moderately bounced back in services (+0.4% after −0.2%) whereas they declined in goods (−0.5% after +0.1%).

In detail, expenditure on energy fell back in summer after being dynamic in the first half of the year due to temperatures below seasonal norms (−1.7% after +1.5%). Consumption of engineered goods declined (−1.2% after +0.2%), especially household equipment (−6.1%) after two quarters of very brisk growth (+7.3% in Q1 and +3.4% in Q2). By constrast, consumption of food products bounced back (+0.9% after −0.6%).

Global GFCF rose slightly in Q3 (+0.2% after 0.0%). Investment in construction increased by 0.8% (after −0.1%), especially in civil engineering. Investment in market services also recovered (+1.2% after +0.1%), particularly in software. Conversely, GFCF in manufactured goods fell back sharply (−2.6% after +0.2%), especially in transport equipment and capital goods.

In Q3 2016, imports recovered sharply (+2.5% after −1.7%), particularly due to purchases of raw hydrocarbons and transport equipment. At the same time, exports accelerated moderately (+0.5% after −0.1%). Sales in food products, refined petroleum products, capital goods and other industrial goods increased but those in agricultural products tumbled. All in all, foreign trade balance weighed down on GDP growth in Q3: −0.6 points after +0.5 points in the previous quarter.

In Q3, changes in inventories contributed to GDP growth by +0.7 points, after −0.7 points in Q2. In particular, they increased in transport equipment, raw hydrocarbons and equipment goods.

GDP growth estimate for Q3 2016 is confirmed, at +0.2%. The contributions of foreign trade balance and changes in inventories are slightly accentuated.