In November 2016, households' confidence is stableMonthly consumer confidence survey - November 2016

In November 2016, households' confidence is stable: the synthetic confidence index stands at 98. Thus, it remains below its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 308
Paru le : 25/11/2016
Prochaine parution le : 26/07/2017 at 08:45 - July 2017

In November 2016, households' confidence is stable: the synthetic confidence index stands at 98. Thus, it remains below its long-term average (100).

Graph1 – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Personal situation

Past financial situation: decreasing slightly

In November, households' opinion of their personal financial situation in the past twelve months has worsened slightly: the corresponding balance has lost 2 points. It has moved further from its long term average anew. Households' opinion of their personal financial situation in the next twelve months has barely changed: the balance has lost 1 point after a gain of 3 points in October and stays slightly below its long-term average.

The share of households considering it has been a suitable time to make major purchases is stable and stands above its long-term average.

Saving capacity: virtually stable

In November, households' balance of opinion on their expected saving capacity is virtually stable (+ 1 point): it thus remains slightly above its long-term average. The balance concerning their current saving capacity holds steady, slightly below its long-term average.

The share of households considering it has been a suitable time to save is stable, clearly below its long-term average.

Graph2 – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Economic situation in France

Past and future standard of living in France: increasing

In November, household's opinion of the future standard of living in France has kept growing: the corresponding balance has increased for the fifth consecutive month. With a gain of 4 points, it has come back to its long-term average, that is its highest level since January 2016. The balance on the past standard of living has grown by 3 points, and has moved closer to its long-term average.

Unemployment: fears decreasing clearly

After being aroused in October, households' fears about unemployement have lessened clearly in November (−11 points). Thus, the corresponding balance has returned below its long-term average.

Expected inflation: decreasing

In November, households are a little less numerous to consider that prices are likely to increase during the next twelve months: the corresponding balance has lost 2 points and has continued to drift away from its long-term average. They are almost as numerous as in October to consider that prices fell during the past 12 months: the balance has gained 1 point but remains clearly below its long-term average.

Graph3 – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Graph4 – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Table – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
2016
Av. (1) Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
Synthetic index (2) 100 97 97 98 98
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –22 –24 –23 –25
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –10 –10 –7 –8
Current saving capacity 8 10 9 6 6
Expected saving capacity –9 –9 –7 –7 –6
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 18 0 1 –2 –2
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –15 –10 –6 –5 –5
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –53 –54 –52 –49
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –34 –30 –29 –25
Unemployment, next 12 m. 35 34 30 40 29
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –14 –52 –47 –53 –52
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –37 –35 –37 –39
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2015
  • (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2015).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)