The outlook for Europe holds up amid political uncertaintiesConjoncture in France - october 2016

Vladimir Passeron and Dorian Roucher

In spring 2016, growth in the advanced economies varied widely. It was quite disappointing in the United States, but turned out to be more vigorous than expected in the United Kingdom, ahead of the vote on the country’s exit from the European Union. Similarly, although the scenario of a self-sustaining recovery has been confirmed for the Eurozone overall (+0.3%), the French economy remained at a standstill (–0.1%) after a dynamic start to the year. Among the emerging countries, the slowdown the Chinese economy has been suffering since 2010 seems to have been checked, thanks to an expansionary fiscal and monetary policy; the commodity exporting countries have profited from the stabilisation of their prices, particularly Russia and Brazil.