In October 2016, the business climate in manufacturing decreases slightly but remains above normalMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2016

According to the business managers surveyed in October 2016, the business climate in industry has decreased slightly (−1 point). At 102, it nevertheless remains above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 272
Paru le : 25/10/2016
Prochaine parution le : 26/09/2017 at 08:45 - September 2017

According to the business managers surveyed in October 2016, the business climate in industry has decreased slightly (−1 point). At 102, it nevertheless remains above its long-term average (100).

Graphang1 – Business climate in industry - Composite indicator

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating short-term economic uncertainty.

Graphang2 – Turning-point indicator

  • How to read it: close to 1 (respectively −1), the indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between −0.3 and +0.3: uncertainty area.

Flagging opinion on past activity

In October 2016, the balance of opinion on past activity has faltered and has returned to its August's level, still above normal. That on personal production is stable above its long-term average.

Business managers in manufacturing are less upbeat than in September on general production prospects in the sector (−4 points). The corresponding balance has been above its long-term average since February 2015.

In October, global and export order books are virtually stable. The corresponding balances of opinion are above their mean.

Finally, as many industrialists as in September consider that finished-goods inventories are below normal: the corresponding balance is stable below its long-term average.

tableau1 – Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing activity
Manufacturing industry Ave.* July 16 Aug. 16 Sept. 16 Oct. 16
Composite indicator 100 103 101 103 102
Past activity 4 10 6 9 6
Finished-goods inventory 13 16 9 11 11
Global order books –18 –12 –16 –14 –15
Export order books –14 –9 –9 –11 –12
Personal production expectations 5 2 2 9 9
General production expectations –9 2 1 6 2
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate is significantly above normal

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate has increased by one point in October. It has reached its highest level since August 2015, significantly above its long-term average. This slight increase mainly comes from a further rise in the balance of opinion on past activity.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate remains close to its mean level

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate is stable, just below its mean level. The balance on expected activity has increased but those on order books have decreased.

On a sub-sector level, the composite indicator has bounced back in electrical equipment, reaching a level close to normal. In the computer, electronic and optical product industry, the business climate, already above its mean level, has improved again. However, in the machinery and equipment sector, the business climate has fallen back below normal.

The business climate remains above normal in the manufacture of transport equipment

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has lost one point albeit remaining above normal. Specifically, the balances on past and expected activity have declined.

The business climate has lost one point in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers and it is stable in that of other transport equipment. Both climates are above their long-term average.

The business climate remains just above normal in “other manufacturing”

In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate is stable just above normal. The balances of opinion on past activity and that on personal production expectations have advanced but those on order books have deteriorated.

In chemicals, wood-paper, rubber and plastic industries, the business climates have improved. In basic metals, the climate has remained at its mean level since August 2016. However, the climate has deteriorated in textiles and has fallen below its mean level in “other manufacturing industries”.

Graphang4 – Business climates in a sector-based approach

  • Legend: (C1): Manufacture of food products and beverages - (C3): Machinery and equipment goods - (C4): Manufacture of transport equipment - (C5): Other manufacturing

tableau2 – Business climates in a sector-based approach

Average = 100 and standard deviation = 10 since 1990
Business climates in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Weights** (%) Aug. 16 Sept. 16 Oct. 16
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages 21 98 108 109
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods 11 100 99 99
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products 3 103 104 107
[CJ] Electrical equipment 3 96 93 99
[CK] Machinery and equipment 5 99 100 95
(C4) Man. of transport equipment 15 104 106 105
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 7 104 105 104
[CL2] Other transport equipment 8 103 104 104
(C5) Other manufacturing 46 101 101 101
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry 2 112 111 107
[CC] Wood, paper, printing 5 100 98 99
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products 9 101 97 98
[CG] Rubber and plastic products 7 100 100 104
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products 11 100 100 100
[CM] Other manufacturing industries 9 100 103 97
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry