25 October 2016
2016- n° 272In October 2016, the business climate in manufacturing decreases slightly but remains
above normal Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2016
According to the business managers surveyed in October 2016, the business climate in industry has decreased slightly (−1 point). At 102, it nevertheless remains above its long-term average (100).
- Flagging opinion on past activity
- In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate is significantly above normal
- In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate remains close to its mean level
- The business climate remains above normal in the manufacture of transport equipment
- The business climate remains just above normal in “other manufacturing”
According to the business managers surveyed in October 2016, the business climate in industry has decreased slightly (−1 point). At 102, it nevertheless remains above its long-term average (100).
graphiqueGraphang1 – Business climate in industry - Composite indicator
The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating short-term economic uncertainty.
graphiqueGraphang2 – Turning-point indicator
Flagging opinion on past activity
In October 2016, the balance of opinion on past activity has faltered and has returned to its August's level, still above normal. That on personal production is stable above its long-term average.
Business managers in manufacturing are less upbeat than in September on general production prospects in the sector (−4 points). The corresponding balance has been above its long-term average since February 2015.
In October, global and export order books are virtually stable. The corresponding balances of opinion are above their mean.
Finally, as many industrialists as in September consider that finished-goods inventories are below normal: the corresponding balance is stable below its long-term average.
tableautableau1 – Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing activity
Manufacturing industry | Ave.* | July 16 | Aug. 16 | Sept. 16 | Oct. 16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite indicator | 100 | 103 | 101 | 103 | 102 |
Past activity | 4 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
Finished-goods inventory | 13 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
Global order books | –18 | –12 | –16 | –14 | –15 |
Export order books | –14 | –9 | –9 | –11 | –12 |
Personal production expectations | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 |
General production expectations | –9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
- * Long-term average since 1976.
- Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry
In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate is significantly above normal
In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate has increased by one point in October. It has reached its highest level since August 2015, significantly above its long-term average. This slight increase mainly comes from a further rise in the balance of opinion on past activity.
In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate remains close to its mean level
In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate is stable, just below its mean level. The balance on expected activity has increased but those on order books have decreased.
On a sub-sector level, the composite indicator has bounced back in electrical equipment, reaching a level close to normal. In the computer, electronic and optical product industry, the business climate, already above its mean level, has improved again. However, in the machinery and equipment sector, the business climate has fallen back below normal.
The business climate remains above normal in the manufacture of transport equipment
In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has lost one point albeit remaining above normal. Specifically, the balances on past and expected activity have declined.
The business climate has lost one point in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers and it is stable in that of other transport equipment. Both climates are above their long-term average.
The business climate remains just above normal in “other manufacturing”
In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate is stable just above normal. The balances of opinion on past activity and that on personal production expectations have advanced but those on order books have deteriorated.
In chemicals, wood-paper, rubber and plastic industries, the business climates have improved. In basic metals, the climate has remained at its mean level since August 2016. However, the climate has deteriorated in textiles and has fallen below its mean level in “other manufacturing industries”.
graphiqueGraphang4 – Business climates in a sector-based approach
tableautableau2 – Business climates in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] | Weights** (%) | Aug. 16 | Sept. 16 | Oct. 16 |
---|---|---|---|---|
(C1) Man. of food products and beverages | 21 | 98 | 108 | 109 |
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods | 11 | 100 | 99 | 99 |
[CI] Computer, electronic and optical products | 3 | 103 | 104 | 107 |
[CJ] Electrical equipment | 3 | 96 | 93 | 99 |
[CK] Machinery and equipment | 5 | 99 | 100 | 95 |
(C4) Man. of transport equipment | 15 | 104 | 106 | 105 |
[CL1] Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers | 7 | 104 | 105 | 104 |
[CL2] Other transport equipment | 8 | 103 | 104 | 104 |
(C5) Other manufacturing | 46 | 101 | 101 | 101 |
[CB] Textiles, clothing industries, leather and footwear industry | 2 | 112 | 111 | 107 |
[CC] Wood, paper, printing | 5 | 100 | 98 | 99 |
[CE] Chemicals and chemical products | 9 | 101 | 97 | 98 |
[CG] Rubber and plastic products | 7 | 100 | 100 | 104 |
[CH] Basic metals and fabricated metal products | 11 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
[CM] Other manufacturing industries | 9 | 100 | 103 | 97 |
- * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
- ** Weights used to aggregate sub-sector's balances of opinion.
- Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey in industry
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Industry - Activity and demand