25 October 2016

2016- n° 272

In October 2016, the business climate in manufacturing decreases slightly but remains above normal Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - October 2016

According to the business managers surveyed in October 2016, the business climate in industry has decreased slightly (−1 point). At 102, it nevertheless remains above its long-term average (100).

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating short-term economic uncertainty.

In October 2016, the balance of opinion on past activity has faltered and has returned to its August's level, still above normal. That on personal production is stable above its long-term average.

Business managers in manufacturing are less upbeat than in September on general production prospects in the sector (−4 points). The corresponding balance has been above its long-term average since February 2015.

In October, global and export order books are virtually stable. The corresponding balances of opinion are above their mean.

Finally, as many industrialists as in September consider that finished-goods inventories are below normal: the corresponding balance is stable below its long-term average.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate has increased by one point in October. It has reached its highest level since August 2015, significantly above its long-term average. This slight increase mainly comes from a further rise in the balance of opinion on past activity.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate is stable, just below its mean level. The balance on expected activity has increased but those on order books have decreased.

On a sub-sector level, the composite indicator has bounced back in electrical equipment, reaching a level close to normal. In the computer, electronic and optical product industry, the business climate, already above its mean level, has improved again. However, in the machinery and equipment sector, the business climate has fallen back below normal.

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate has lost one point albeit remaining above normal. Specifically, the balances on past and expected activity have declined.

The business climate has lost one point in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers and it is stable in that of other transport equipment. Both climates are above their long-term average.

In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate is stable just above normal. The balances of opinion on past activity and that on personal production expectations have advanced but those on order books have deteriorated.

In chemicals, wood-paper, rubber and plastic industries, the business climates have improved. In basic metals, the climate has remained at its mean level since August 2016. However, the climate has deteriorated in textiles and has fallen below its mean level in “other manufacturing industries”.