22 September 2016
2016- n° 249In September 2016, the business climate declines slightly in retail trade and in trade
and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - September 2016
According to the managers surveyed in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has slightly declined in September 2016. The composite indicator that measures it has lost one point for the second consecutive month and stands at 102. It has remained above its long term average (100) since May 2015.
According to the managers surveyed in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has slightly declined in September 2016. The composite indicator that measures it has lost one point for the second consecutive month and stands at 102. It has remained above its long term average (100) since May 2015.
graphiquegraph_indsynt_en – Business climate synthetic indicator
More traders consider their sales lower
More traders than in August have declared a fall in their past activity. The corresponding balance of opinion has gone below its long terme average. Concerning the next few months, the managers are a little less optimistic about their sales and their ordering intentions. However they are slightly more confident about general business outlook. Each of the three balances stands above its mean level.
Stocks are deemed practically stable and above their standard level.
As many retailers as on the last interrogation have indicated falls in prices over the last few months, but more of them expect some in the coming months.
The cash position is considered a little more difficult than in July.
tableautab1_en – Tendancy in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
| Ave. (1) | June 16 | July 16 | Aug. 16 | Sept. 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 102 | 104 | 103 | 102 |
| General business outlook | –30 | –22 | –18 | –22 | –19 |
| Recent sales | –7 | –5 | –5 | –4 | –11 |
| Expected sales | –3 | –1 | 2 | 0 | –2 |
| Ordering intentions | –9 | –5 | –2 | –3 | –4 |
| Stocks | 11 | 10 | 16 | 14 | 13 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –7 | –7 | –7 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –3 | –9 | –5 | –5 | –8 |
| Cash position (2) | –15 | –16 | –18 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 1 | –2 | –4 | –1 | 0 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –3 | –5 | –3 | –4 | –6 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiqueGraph_ventes_ic_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions
Slightly more pessismistic forecasts on employment
The balance concerning the recent workforce size is virtually stable and close to its average. Conversely, the expected workforce one has decreased again. In retail trade, these balances stand below their mean level, while in trade and repair of motor vehicles, they are above.
In retail trade, the business climate indicator remains virtually stable
In retail trade, the business climate indicator is virtually stable (−1 point after +1 point), and close to its long-term average (100). More non-specialised retailers than in August have pointed out a rise in their past sales, but the balance remains below its average. In specialised trade, the balance has plummeted to the low level of the beginning of 2015: this drop has been pronounced in the “culture, recreational and luxury goods” sector, where the balance has come back to its level of the beginning of 2010.
Overall, retailers maintain their expectations: the balances concerning expected sales and ordering intentions are practically stable, close to their average.
Roughly as many traders as on the last interrogation have declared falls in selling prices, on the past as on the future.
The cash position is estimated difficult.
In trade and repair of motor vehicles, business climate declines again
In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate indicator has weakened for the second month in a row (−3 points). However, it has remained above its mean level (100) since the end of 2014.
The three balances concerning past and expected sales and ordering intentions have fell back significantly, albeit remaining above their mean level.
More motor vehicles traders than on the last interrogation have noted falls in selling prices, over the last as over the next few months.
The cash flow position is estimated a little less easy than in July.
graphiquegraph_ventes_ic_auto_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions in trade and repair of motor vehicles
graphiquegraph_climat_ca_cd_en – Business climate synthetic indicator in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
tableautab2_en – Detailed data
| Ave. (1) | June 16 | July 16 | Aug. 16 | Sept. 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade - Global data | |||||
| Business climate | 100 | 97 | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| Gener. busin. outlook | –30 | –25 | –21 | –24 | –21 |
| Recent sales | –6 | –12 | –14 | –11 | –14 |
| Expected sales | –1 | –4 | 0 | –2 | –3 |
| Ordering intentions | –7 | –7 | –5 | –5 | –4 |
| Stocks | 10 | 9 | 16 | 12 | 11 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –9 | –11 | –9 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –10 | –6 | –7 | –8 |
| Cash position (2) | –13 | –16 | –18 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 2 | –3 | –5 | –2 | 0 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –2 | –5 | –4 | –4 | –6 |
| Non-specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –2 | –6 | –8 | –8 | –4 |
| Expected sales | 6 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| Ordering intentions | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Stocks | 7 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 9 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –9 | –13 | –9 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –8 | –5 | –6 | –6 |
| Cash position (2) | –7 | –9 | –11 | ||
| Specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –11 | –20 | –21 | –14 | –27 |
| Expected sales | –8 | –15 | –9 | –10 | –14 |
| Ordering intentions | –17 | –21 | –15 | –16 | –16 |
| Stocks | 13 | 10 | 15 | 11 | 12 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –9 | –9 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –12 | –8 | –8 | –9 |
| Cash position (2) | –23 | –24 | –27 | ||
| Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles | |||||
| Business climate | 100 | 114 | 114 | 110 | 107 |
| Gener. busin. outlook | –30 | –8 | –8 | –15 | –11 |
| Recent sales | –9 | 14 | 17 | 12 | –2 |
| Expected sales | –8 | 6 | 4 | 8 | –4 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | 7 | 7 | 2 | –6 |
| Stocks | 15 | 14 | 18 | 19 | 17 |
| Past selling prices (2) | 1 | 1 | –3 | ||
| Expected selling prices | 4 | –6 | –2 | 3 | –6 |
| Cash position (2) | –24 | –16 | –18 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | –9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –7 | –1 | –1 | –6 | –6 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: INSEE - monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,129 Ko)
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