In September 2016, the business climate declines slightly in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehiclesMonthly survey of retailing - September 2016

According to the managers surveyed in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has slightly declined in September 2016. The composite indicator that measures it has lost one point for the second consecutive month and stands at 102. It has remained above its long term average (100) since May 2015.

Informations rapides
No 249
Paru le : 22/09/2016
Prochaine parution le : 23/11/2017 at 08:45 - November 2017

According to the managers surveyed in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles, the business climate has slightly declined in September 2016. The composite indicator that measures it has lost one point for the second consecutive month and stands at 102. It has remained above its long term average (100) since May 2015.

graph_indsynt_en – Business climate synthetic indicator

More traders consider their sales lower

More traders than in August have declared a fall in their past activity. The corresponding balance of opinion has gone below its long terme average. Concerning the next few months, the managers are a little less optimistic about their sales and their ordering intentions. However they are slightly more confident about general business outlook. Each of the three balances stands above its mean level.

Stocks are deemed practically stable and above their standard level.

As many retailers as on the last interrogation have indicated falls in prices over the last few months, but more of them expect some in the coming months.

The cash position is considered a little more difficult than in July.

tab1_en – Tendancy in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Tendancy in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
Ave. (1) June 16 July 16 Aug. 16 Sept. 16
Business climate 100 102 104 103 102
General business outlook –30 –22 –18 –22 –19
Recent sales –7 –5 –5 –4 –11
Expected sales –3 –1 2 0 –2
Ordering intentions –9 –5 –2 –3 –4
Stocks 11 10 16 14 13
Past selling prices (2) –7 –7 –7
Expected selling prices –3 –9 –5 –5 –8
Cash position (2) –15 –16 –18
Workforce size: recent trend 1 –2 –4 –1 0
Workforce size: future trend –3 –5 –3 –4 –6
  • (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
  • (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • Source: INSEE - monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles

Graph_ventes_ic_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions

Slightly more pessismistic forecasts on employment

The balance concerning the recent workforce size is virtually stable and close to its average. Conversely, the expected workforce one has decreased again. In retail trade, these balances stand below their mean level, while in trade and repair of motor vehicles, they are above.

In retail trade, the business climate indicator remains virtually stable

In retail trade, the business climate indicator is virtually stable (−1 point after +1 point), and close to its long-term average (100). More non-specialised retailers than in August have pointed out a rise in their past sales, but the balance remains below its average. In specialised trade, the balance has plummeted to the low level of the beginning of 2015: this drop has been pronounced in the “culture, recreational and luxury goods” sector, where the balance has come back to its level of the beginning of 2010.

Overall, retailers maintain their expectations: the balances concerning expected sales and ordering intentions are practically stable, close to their average.

Roughly as many traders as on the last interrogation have declared falls in selling prices, on the past as on the future.

The cash position is estimated difficult.

In trade and repair of motor vehicles, business climate declines again

In trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles, the business climate indicator has weakened for the second month in a row (−3 points). However, it has remained above its mean level (100) since the end of 2014.

The three balances concerning past and expected sales and ordering intentions have fell back significantly, albeit remaining above their mean level.

More motor vehicles traders than on the last interrogation have noted falls in selling prices, over the last as over the next few months.

The cash flow position is estimated a little less easy than in July.

graph_ventes_ic_auto_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions in trade and repair of motor vehicles

graph_climat_ca_cd_en – Business climate synthetic indicator in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

tab2_en – Detailed data

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Detailed data
Ave. (1) June 16 July 16 Aug. 16 Sept. 16
Retail trade - Global data
Business climate 100 97 99 100 99
Gener. busin. outlook –30 –25 –21 –24 –21
Recent sales –6 –12 –14 –11 –14
Expected sales –1 –4 0 –2 –3
Ordering intentions –7 –7 –5 –5 –4
Stocks 10 9 16 12 11
Past selling prices (2) –9 –11 –9
Expected selling prices –5 –10 –6 –7 –8
Cash position (2) –13 –16 –18
Workforce size: recent trend 2 –3 –5 –2 0
Workforce size: future trend –2 –5 –4 –4 –6
Non-specialised retail trade
Recent sales –2 –6 –8 –8 –4
Expected sales 6 5 9 6 5
Ordering intentions 1 5 5 4 5
Stocks 7 7 14 10 9
Past selling prices (2) –9 –13 –9
Expected selling prices –5 –8 –5 –6 –6
Cash position (2) –7 –9 –11
Specialised retail trade
Recent sales –11 –20 –21 –14 –27
Expected sales –8 –15 –9 –10 –14
Ordering intentions –17 –21 –15 –16 –16
Stocks 13 10 15 11 12
Past selling prices (2) –8 –9 –9
Expected selling prices –5 –12 –8 –8 –9
Cash position (2) –23 –24 –27
Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles
Business climate 100 114 114 110 107
Gener. busin. outlook –30 –8 –8 –15 –11
Recent sales –9 14 17 12 –2
Expected sales –8 6 4 8 –4
Ordering intentions –12 7 7 2 –6
Stocks 15 14 18 19 17
Past selling prices (2) 1 1 –3
Expected selling prices 4 –6 –2 3 –6
Cash position (2) –24 –16 –18
Workforce size: recent trend –9 3 0 0 2
Workforce size: future trend –7 –1 –1 –6 –6
  • (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
  • (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • Source: INSEE - monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles