In Q2 2016, French GDP levelled offQuarterly national accounts - first estimate - 2nd quarter 2016

In Q2 2016, GDP in volume terms* was stable : 0.0% after +0,7% in Q1.

Informations rapides
No 200
Paru le : 29/07/2016
Prochaine parution le : 31/10/2017 at 07:30 - third quarter 2017

In Q2 2016, GDP in volume terms* was stable : 0.0% after +0,7% in Q1.

Household consumption expenditure slowed down sharply (0.0% after +1.2%), while total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) fell back (−0.4% after +1.3%). All in all, final domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) was flat: its contribution to GDP growth was flat (after +1.0 points in Q1).

Imports significantly stepped back (−1.3% after +0.5%), while exports still modestly declined (−0.3% as in the previous quarter). In fine, foreign trade balance contributed positively to activity (+0.3 points after −0.2 points). Conversely, corporate behaviour to inventories contributed anew negatively (−0.4 points after −0.1 points).

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Graph1 – GDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE

Tab1 – Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes
2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2015 2016 (ovhg)
GDP 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.0 1.2 1.1
Imports 1.6 2.6 0.5 -1.3 6.4 2.3
Household consumption *expenditure 0.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 1.5 1.5
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.2
GFCF 0.6 1.1 1.3 -0.4 0.9 2.1
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 0.4 1.5 2.1 -0.2 2.7 3.5
Households -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.8 0.0
General government 2.6 1.5 0.1 -1.7 -3.9 0.3
Exports -0.2 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 6.0 0.3
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.3 1.5
Inventory changes 0.5 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.2
Net foreign trade -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.7
  • Source: Insee

Total production slightly declined

In Q2 2016, production in goods and services slightly decreased (−0.2% after +0.7%). Output in manufactured goods sharply dropped (−1.0% after 0.0%) primarily due to a slump in refineries output, affected by social movements in May and June. Production in construction also declined (−0.6% after +0.3%). In market services, it was stable (0.0% after +1.1%) while energy production decelerated (+0.5% after +1.0%).

Tab3 – Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components
2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2015 2016 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.4 0.5 0.7 -0.2 1.3 1.2
Goods 0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.6 1.2 0.1
Manufactured Industry 0.5 0.7 0.0 -1.0 1.5 -0.1
Construction -0.6 0.4 0.3 -0.6 -2.2 -0.2
Market services 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.0 1.8 1.9
Non-market services 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.0 1.1
Household consumption 0.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 1.5 1.5
Food products -0.1 0.3 0.4 -0.7 1.2 0.3
Energy 2.3 -2.6 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.2
Engineered goods 0.7 0.2 2.3 0.0 2.6 2.9
Services 0.4 0.3 0.7 -0.1 1.0 1.1
GFCF 0.6 1.1 1.3 -0.4 0.9 2.1
Manufactured goods 3.1 3.6 3.5 -0.9 2.1 6.6
Construction -0.6 0.3 0.4 -0.4 -2.2 -0.1
Market services 0.8 0.6 1.1 -0.2 4.4 2.0
  • Source: INSEE

Household consumption was flat

In Q2 2016, household consumption expenditure was flat after a dynamic first quarter (0.0% after +1.2%). Expenditure slowed down on goods (0.0% after +1.5%) and on services (−0.1% after +0.7%). Consumption of engineered goods flattened out (0.0% after +2.3%): expenditure on housing equipment kept increasing significantly while car purchases stepped back. Consumption of food products sharply declined (−0.7% after +0.4%). Downturn in household consumption of services was due to repercussion of buying tickets for football Euro 2016 in Q1 and to a decline in spending on accommodation and food. By contrast, energy consumption barely slowed down (+1.4% after +1.7%).

Investment expenditures mark a halt

Global GFCF marked a halt in Q2 (−0.4%), after three consecutive quarters of sharp rise (+1.3% in Q1). Investment in construction decreased (−0.4% after +0.4%), as well as in manufactured goods (−0.9% after +3.5%) and in market services (−0.2% after +1.1%).

Foreign trade balance contribution to GDP growth was positive

In Q2 2016, exports still stepped back slightly (−0.3% as in the previous quarter) despite a rebound in transport equipment. At the same time, imports significantly declined (−1.3% after +0.5%), particularly in manufactured goods and raw hydrocarbons. All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP, this quarter: +0.3 points after −0.2 points.

Changes in inventories contributed anew negatively to GDP

Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.4 points after −0.1 points. They declined mainly in refined petroleum products and transport equipment.

Revisions

GDP growth estimate in Q1 is slightly upscaled: +0.7% instead of +0.6%. Revisions about different aggregates almost make up for one another; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators.

Tab2 – Sectoral accounts

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Sectoral accounts
2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2015 2016 (ovhg)
Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 31.3 31.7 32.2   31.4  
Household purchasing power 0.8 0.4 0.7   1.6 1.3
  • *NFC: non-financial corporations
  • Source: INSEE

Tab4 – Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account
2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2015 2016 (ovhg)
HDI 0.6 0.4 0.6   1.4 1.3
Household purchasing power 0.8 0.4 0.7 1.6 1.3
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.1
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.6 1.3
Saving rate (level) 14.5 14.8 14.4 14.5  
Financial saving rate (level) 5.6 5.8 5.6   5.5  
  • *cu: consumption unit
  • Source: INSEE

Tab5 – Ratios of non-financial corporations' account

level (in percent), data WDA-SA
Ratios of non-financial corporations' account
2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2015
Profit share 31.3 31.7 32.2   31.4
Investment ratio 22.8 23.0 23.2   22.9
Savings ratio 19.9 20.1 21.3   19.7
Self-financing ratio 87.4 87.4 92.0   86.3
  • Source: INSEE

Tab6 – Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, data WDA-SA
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2015
In billions of euros 311.5 310.6 313.7   1243.3
Total expenditure 291.3 295.2 294.4   1165.9
Total receipts -20.2 -15.4 -19.3   -77.3
Net lending (+) or borrowing (-)      
In % of GDP -3.7 -2.8 -3.5   -3.5
Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) 311.5 310.6 313.7   1243.3
  • Source: INSEE

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)