21 July 2016

2016- n° 187

In July 2016, the business climate in manufacturing has recovered slightly Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - July 2016

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2016, the business climate in industry is slightly more favourable. The composite indicator has won 1 point. At 103, it is above its long-term average (100).

The turning-point indicator is now in the zone indicating a short-term economic uncertainty.

In July 2016, the balance of opinion on past activity has bounced back (+11 points) and returns above its long-term average. However, that on personal production has fallen back (−6 points) and becomes below its long-term average.

Business managers in manufacturing are a few more optimistic than in June on general production prospects in the sector (+2 points). The corresponding balance remains above its long-term average, as has been the case since February 2015.

In July, balances of opinion on order books are virtually stable above their mean.

Finally, fewer industrialists than in June consider that finished-goods inventories are above normal: the corresponding balance has decreased by 1 point and gets back its long-term average.

The slight improvement of the business climate in the industry stems from the manufacture of food products and beverages. In the other sectors, the business climate is stable.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the business climate has increased by 3 points in July. Its level (107) is significantly above its long-term average it has exceeded since April 2016. Its improvement is mainly due to the balances of opinion on past activity, on finished-goods inventory and on global order books.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the business climate is stable slightly below its long-term average. The balances on past activity and on global order books have increased, by that on export order books has deteriorated.

On a sub-sector level, the composite indicator has recovered in electrical equipment (+5 points) but remains above normal. In computer, electronic and optical product industry, the business climate has fallen back albeit remaining above its mean level; it has reached its lowest level (102) since February 2015. In the machinery and equipment sector, the business climate, already below its long-term average since September 2011, has decreased slightly (−2 points).

In the manufacture of transport equipment, the business climate is stable at 106, considerably above its long-term average. On the one hand, the balances on export order books and on past activity have increased; on the other hand, the balances on production prospects and on global order books have fallen.

The business climate is stable in the manufacture of motor vehicle, trailers and semi trailers, and it is virtually stable in the manufacture of other transport equipment. Both are above their long-term average.

In overall “other manufacturing”, the business climate remains slightly above normal. The balances of opinion on past activity and on global order books have improved, but those on production prospects and on export order books have worsened.

The business climate has recovered in “other manufacturing industries” and has reached its long-term average. It is stable or virtually stable in other sub-sectors, always above normal excepted in chemicals.