In June 2016, households' confidence falters slightlyMonthly consumer confidence survey - June 2016

In June 2016, households' confidence has faltered slightly: the synthetic confidence index has lost 1 point and stands at 97. Last month, it had hit its highest level since October 2007, without, however, reaching its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 167
Paru le : 28/06/2016
Prochaine parution le : 27/09/2017 at 08:45 - September 2017

In June 2016, households' confidence has faltered slightly: the synthetic confidence index has lost 1 point and stands at 97. Last month, it had hit its highest level since October 2007, without, however, reaching its long-term average (100).

Personal situation

Past financial situation: slight rise

In June, households' opinion of their personal financial situation in the past twelve months has improved slightly: the corresponding balance has gained 2 points, after a four-month stability. Their opinion of their personal financial situation in the next twelve months is virtually stable (−1 point). Both balances stand below their long-term average.

In June, the share of households considering it has been a suitable time to make major purchases has fallen markedly: the balance has lost 9 points, after a rise of a similar magnitude in May. It stands however above its long-term average.

Expected saving capacity: slight improvement

In June, households' balance of opinion on their current saving capacity is stable at its long-term average for the third consecutive month. The one concerning their expected saving capacity has picked up slightly (+2 points), and is thus back to its long-term average.

In June, the share of households considering it has been a suitable time to save has continued to increase: the corresponding balance has gained 4 points. This balance remains nevertheless largely inferior to its long-term average.

graph1_english – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Tab_eng – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
2016
Av. (1) March April May June
Synthetic index (2) 100 94 94 98 97
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –25 –25 –25 –23
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –13 –13 –9 –10
Current saving capacity 8 6 8 8 8
Expected saving capacity –9 –10 –9 –11 –9
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 18 –2 –4 –2 2
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –15 –12 –11 –3 –12
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –57 –58 –48 –52
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –37 –37 –27 –33
Unemployment, next 12 m. 35 38 49 22 21
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –14 –56 –57 –53 –53
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –36 –36 –39 –36
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2015
  • (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and its standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2015).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Economic situation in France

Standard of living in France: renewed pessimism

Following a significant improvement in May in the opinion on the standard of living in France, the past as well as the expected one, households have turned more pessimistic in June: the balance on the past standard of living in France has lost 4 points, the one on the standard of living in the next twelve months has lost 6 points. Both balances were already below their long-term average in May and have thus deviated further from it.

graph2_english – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Unemployment: fears almost unchanged

After a strong decrease in the fears concerning unemployment in May, households' opinion remains virtually unchanged in June: the corresponding balance has lost 1 point. It stands at its lowest level since June 2008, below its long-term average.

chomage_en – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Perceived inflation: stability

In June, households are as numerous as in May to consider that prices decreased during the past twelve months. The corresponding balance thus remains clearly below its long-term average. The share of households considering that prices are likely to increase during the next 12 months has grown: the balance has gained 3 points and thereby has come closer to its long-term average.

prix_en – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)