In May 2016, households' confidence improves clearlyMonthly consumer confidence survey - May 2016

In May 2016, households' confidence has improved clearly: the synthetic confidence index has gained 4 points, reaching 98, its highest level since October 2007. However, it remains below its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 138
Paru le : 27/05/2016
Prochaine parution le : 27/09/2017 at 08:45 - September 2017

In May 2016, households' confidence has improved clearly: the synthetic confidence index has gained 4 points, reaching 98, its highest level since October 2007. However, it remains below its long-term average (100).

Personal situation

Financial situation: lesser pessimism

In May, households' opinion of their past personal financial situation is stable for the fourth consecutive month. By contrast, their opinion of their personal financial situation in the next twelve months has improved clearly: the balance has gained 4 points. However, both balances remain inferior to their long-term average.

In May, the share of households considering it has been a suitable time to make major purchases has expanded significantly: the balance has grown by 7 points and has kept growing above its long-term average.

Saving capacity: slight decline

In May, households' balance of opinion on their current saving capacity is stable, standing at its long term average. However, the one concerning their expected saving capacity has declined (−2 points) and has slipped back slightly below its long-term average.

In May, households are more numerous than in April to consider it has been a suitable time to save (+3 points). The balance has returned to its level of March, clearly below its long-term average.

graph1_english – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Tab_eng – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
2016
Av. (1) Feb. March April May
Synthetic index (2) 100 96 94 94 98
Financial situation, past 12 m. –21 –25 –25 –25 –25
Financial situation, next 12 m. –5 –10 –13 –13 –9
Current saving capacity 8 8 6 8 8
Expected saving capacity –9 –6 –10 –9 –11
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 18 –2 –2 –5 –2
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –15 –12 –12 –10 –3
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –56 –57 –58 –48
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –32 –36 –37 –28
Unemployment, next 12 m. 35 44 39 49 21
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –14 –55 –56 –56 –53
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –38 –36 –36 –39
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2015
  • (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and its standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2015).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Economic situation in France

Standard of living in France: opinion clearly less pessimist

In May, households' opinion of their expected standard of living in France has improved strongly (+9 points), as the one of their past standard of living (+10 points). Thus, both balances have moved significantly towards their long-term average, the second one reaching its highest level since August, 2007.

graph2_english – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living in France

  • Source: INSEE

Unemployment: fears falling back sharply

After a resurgence in April, households' fears concerning unemployment have abated considerably in May: the balance has lost 28 points and has become lower than its long term average. Thus, it has hit its lowest level since June 2008.

chomage_en – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Perceived inflation on the rise, expected inflation declining

In May, households are more numerous than in April to consider that prices increased during the past twelve months: the corresponding balance has gained 3 points. It stays largely below its long term average. Conversely, the share of households considering that prices are likely to increase during the next 12 months has diminished (−3 points) and the balance has deviated further from its long-term average.

prix_en – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)