23 February 2016
2016- n° 45In February 2016, the business climate is almost stable in services Monthly survey of services - February 2016
According to business managers surveyed in February 2016, the business climate in services is virtually stable. The business climate composite indicator has decreased by one point and has fallen back (99) slightly below its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator is in the uncertainty area.
All services
According to business managers surveyed in February 2016, the business climate in services is virtually stable. The business climate composite indicator has decreased by one point and has fallen back (99) slightly below its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator is in the uncertainty area.
graphiqueGraph1 – Business climate composite indicator
graphiquegraph_retourn – Turning point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator indicates a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between +0.3 and -0.3 : uncertainty area.
The balance of opinion on the general outlook, which relates the assessment of business leaders over their whole sector, has decreased markedly and has returned to its long-term average.
The balances on past and expected activity are virtually stable, below their long-term average. The balance on expected demand is unchanged, at its long-term average.
The balances on employment remain above their long-term average, particularly in temporary work agencies, even if the balance on past employment has edged down.
The balance on past investments is steady, whereas the balance on expected investments has slightly decreased. Nevertheless, both balances stay above their long-term average.
tableauTable_quarter – Economic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Nov. 15 | Dec. 15 | Jan. 16 | Feb. 16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 98 | 100 | 99 |
| General outlook | –8 | –7 | –9 | –4 | –8 |
| Past activity | 2 | 4 | –1 | –2 | –1 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 1 | –2 | –1 | –1 |
| Expected demand | –1 | 1 | –4 | –1 | –1 |
| Past selling prices | –4 | –5 | –7 | –7 | –10 |
| Expected selling prices | –3 | –6 | –10 | –12 | –5 |
| Past employment | 3 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 6 |
| except temporary work agencies | 1 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| except temporary work agencies | –1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| Expected investments | 1 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
- * Average of the balances of opinion since 1988
- Source: INSEE, business survey in services
Road transport
In road freight, the balance on past activity has dipped, whereas the balances on expected activity and demand are stable. The corresponding balances remain above their long-term average.
Accommodation and food services
In accommodation and food service activities, the balance on past activity has decreased slightly and has deviated further from its long-term average. After a rise in January, the balances on expected activity and demand have dropped anew in February. They have fell back below their long-term average.
Information and communication
In information and communication, the balance on past activity has improved sharply and has almost returned to its long-term average. The balance on expected activity has increased slightly but remains below its long-term average. The demand prospects have weakened slightly and have returned to their long-term average.
Real estate
In real estate, the balance on past activity has decreased significantly and has come back below its long-term average. However, the expectations on activity and demand have improved but they remain below their long-term average.
Professional, scientific and technical activities
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the balance on past activity has gone down slightly and has come back to its long-term average. The expectations on activity are stable, below their long-term average. The balances on employment remain promising.
Administrative and support service activities
In administrative and support service activities, the balance on past activity has decreased slightly. The balance on expected activity remains at its long-term average. However, the returned demand prospects have improved and the balance has returned above its long-term average. Even if the balances on employment have gone down, they remain far above their long-term average, particularly in temporary work agencies.
graphiquegraph_bonus_ – Past activity in services
tableauTable_det – Detailed data
| A21 | Average* | Nov. 15 | Dec. 15 | Jan. 16 | Feb. 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (H) Road transport | |||||
| Past activity | –8 | –9 | –6 | –2 | –6 |
| Expected activity | –9 | –5 | –4 | –5 | –5 |
| Expected demand | –13 | –6 | –14 | –11 | –11 |
| Past employment | –8 | 3 | –3 | –3 | –5 |
| Expected employment | –11 | –2 | –4 | –3 | –2 |
| (I) Accommodation and food service activities | |||||
| Past activity | –7 | 3 | –10 | –14 | –15 |
| Expected activity | –7 | 8 | –5 | 0 | –8 |
| Expected demand | –9 | 7 | –7 | –3 | –14 |
| Past employment | –4 | 11 | 3 | 2 | –4 |
| Expected employment | –5 | –5 | –6 | –7 | –4 |
| (J) Information and communication | |||||
| Past activity | 8 | –2 | –10 | –6 | 7 |
| Expected activity | 10 | –5 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Expected demand | 10 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 10 |
| Past employment | 6 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 11 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| (L) Real estate activities | |||||
| Past activity | 7 | 15 | 5 | 8 | –3 |
| Expected activity | 7 | 3 | –1 | 1 | 4 |
| Expected demand | 1 | 2 | –5 | –5 | 0 |
| Past employment | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | –2 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| (M) Professional, scientific and technical activities | |||||
| Past activity | –1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | –1 |
| Expected activity | –2 | –1 | –5 | –5 | –4 |
| Expected demand | –6 | –4 | –7 | –8 | –6 |
| Past employment | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Expected employment | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| (N) Administrative and support service activities | |||||
| Past activity | 5 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| Past employment | 8 | 27 | 29 | 26 | 15 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 16 | 18 | 24 | 22 |
- * Average of the balances of opinion since 1988 (February 2006 for road transport)
Documentation
Methodology (2016) (pdf,158 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
