10 May 2016

2016- n° 120

In the manufacturing industry, business managers forecast a significant increase in their investment in 2016 Industrial investment survey - April 2016

Surveyed in April 2016, business managers stated that investment in manufacturing industry increased by 1% in nominal value in 2015, revising by 3 points upwards their previous expectations given in last January.

For 2016, business managers in the manufacturing industry forecast that their investment will increase by 7%, confirming their previous expectations given in last January. Investment should increase in all main sectors. Business managers revised theirs expectations downwards in the industry of machine and equipment (−5 points at +13%). On the contrary, they revised their expectations upwards in the manufacture of food products and beverages (+2 points at +13%).

Surveyed in April 2016, business managers are slightly more numerous to anticipate an increase rather than a decrease in their investment between H2 2015 and H1 2016. For H2 2016, this trend is gathering pace and clearly more business leaders anticipate an increase than a decrease of their investment. The corresponding balance of opinion (+15) has reached its highest level since 2011.

The investment revision indicator remains positive in April because business managers are slightly more numerous to revise their investment forecast upwards rather than downwards. This indicator is based on investment amounts reported in at each survey by business leaders of the manufacturing industry except those of manufacture of food products and beverages and of coke and refined petroleum products.

In 2016, the purposes of investment should be quite similar to those of 2015. The current distribution is close to the average distribution observed since 1991. The share of investment devoted to replacement stays the most important, slightly above its long-term average. A quarter of investment would be used for the modernization of equipment, the share for energy savings remains slightly above its long-term average. On the contrary, the share of investment aimed to increase productive capacity or introduce to introduction of new products is likely to remain a little below its long-term average.

The balance of opinion about the change in productive capacity observed in 2015 (+23) confirms the forecast estimated last year (+21). For 2016, business leaders are more numerous than in 2015 to anticipate an increase of the productive capacity: the balance of opinion has grown to +28 but it remains above its long-term average (+31).