24 May 2016

2016- n° 131

In May 2016, the business climate in manufacturing is virtually stable above its long-term average Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - May 2016

According to the business managers surveyed in May 2016, the business climate in industry is virtually stable. The composite indicator has lost one point but remains at a level (104) above its long-term average (100).

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating a short-term economic uncertainty.

In May 2016, the balance of opinion on past activity, already above normal in April, has increased again (+18 points in two months). That on personal production prospects is virtually stable (−1 point) above its long-term average.

However, business managers in manufacturing are much more optimistic than in April on general production prospects in the sector (+7 points). The corresponding balance has been above its long-term average since February 2015.

In May, order books have deteriorated but remain above normal. Finally, as industrialists as in April consider that finished-goods inventories are above normal: the corresponding balance is stable below its long-term average.

The business climate in manufacturing in April 2016 has been raised by one point. This slight revision comes from late answers from businesses that have been taken into account.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity has improved again and has become superior to its long-term average. That on production prospects is virtually stable, close to its long-term average. Order books have deteriorated slightly but the corresponding balances remain above normal. Finished-goods inventories are judged higher, the corresponding balance already standing above its mean in April.

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the balances on past activity and on production prospects have declined slightly but remain above their long-term average. The balance on inventories of finished products is stable slightly above its mean level. Order books have deteriorated and the corresponding balances have become inferior to their long-term mean.

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balances on past activity and on production prospects have fallen back albeit remaining significantly above normal. Global and export order books have plunged but remain significantly above their mean. The balance on finished-goods inventories remains below its long-term average.

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balance on past activity, already above normal in April, has continued to increase. Conversely, that on production prospects has fallen again and has become slightly inferior to its long-term average. Order books are virtually stable above their long-term average. The level of inventories of finished products is still considered below normal.

In “other manufacturing”, the balances of opinion on past activity and on production prospects have improved in May. The first one has returned above its long-term average while the second one remains slightly inferior to it. On a sub-sector level, the balance on past activity has increased once more in pharmaceuticals, has recovered in plastic products and in basic metals but has declined again in chemicals. That on expected activity has improved in chemicals and in pharmaceuticals while it has decreased slightly in plastic products and in basic metals. In “other manufacturing” as a whole, order books are stable. Overall they have filled up a little abroad. They have improved in chemicals, in plastic products and in basic metals while they have deteriorated in pharmaceuticals. Inventories of finished-goods are considered lower overall, mainly due to chemicals and basic metals.