In May 2016, the business climate in manufacturing is virtually stable above its long-term averageMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - May 2016

According to the business managers surveyed in May 2016, the business climate in industry is virtually stable. The composite indicator has lost one point but remains at a level (104) above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 131
Paru le : 24/05/2016
Prochaine parution le : 21/12/2017 at 08:45 - December 2017

According to the business managers surveyed in May 2016, the business climate in industry is virtually stable. The composite indicator has lost one point but remains at a level (104) above its long-term average (100).

Graphang1 – Business climate in industry - Composite indicator

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating a short-term economic uncertainty.

Graphang2 – Turning-point indicator

  • How to read it: close to 1 (respectively −1), the indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable). Between −0.3 and +0.3: uncertainty area.

In May 2016, the balance of opinion on past activity, already above normal in April, has increased again (+18 points in two months). That on personal production prospects is virtually stable (−1 point) above its long-term average.

However, business managers in manufacturing are much more optimistic than in April on general production prospects in the sector (+7 points). The corresponding balance has been above its long-term average since February 2015.

In May, order books have deteriorated but remain above normal. Finally, as industrialists as in April consider that finished-goods inventories are above normal: the corresponding balance is stable below its long-term average.

tableau1 – Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing activity
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Feb. 16 March 16 April 16 May 16
Composite indicator 100 103 102 105 104
Past activity 4 –3 –6 10 12
Finished-goods inventory 13 4 6 9 9
Global order books –18 –14 –14 –10 –13
Export order books –15 –7 –8 –5 –8
Personal production expectations 5 18 15 9 8
General production expectations –9 –4 –2 –1 6
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey

Revisions

The business climate in manufacturing in April 2016 has been raised by one point. This slight revision comes from late answers from businesses that have been taken into account.

Sector-based analysis

MAN. OF FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity has improved again and has become superior to its long-term average. That on production prospects is virtually stable, close to its long-term average. Order books have deteriorated slightly but the corresponding balances remain above normal. Finished-goods inventories are judged higher, the corresponding balance already standing above its mean in April.

MACHINENERY AND EQUIPMENT GOODS

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the balances on past activity and on production prospects have declined slightly but remain above their long-term average. The balance on inventories of finished products is stable slightly above its mean level. Order books have deteriorated and the corresponding balances have become inferior to their long-term mean.

MAN. OF TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

Man. of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balances on past activity and on production prospects have fallen back albeit remaining significantly above normal. Global and export order books have plunged but remain significantly above their mean. The balance on finished-goods inventories remains below its long-term average.

Man. of other transport equipment

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balance on past activity, already above normal in April, has continued to increase. Conversely, that on production prospects has fallen again and has become slightly inferior to its long-term average. Order books are virtually stable above their long-term average. The level of inventories of finished products is still considered below normal.

OTHER MANUFACTURING

In “other manufacturing”, the balances of opinion on past activity and on production prospects have improved in May. The first one has returned above its long-term average while the second one remains slightly inferior to it. On a sub-sector level, the balance on past activity has increased once more in pharmaceuticals, has recovered in plastic products and in basic metals but has declined again in chemicals. That on expected activity has improved in chemicals and in pharmaceuticals while it has decreased slightly in plastic products and in basic metals. In “other manufacturing” as a whole, order books are stable. Overall they have filled up a little abroad. They have improved in chemicals, in plastic products and in basic metals while they have deteriorated in pharmaceuticals. Inventories of finished-goods are considered lower overall, mainly due to chemicals and basic metals.

tableau2 – Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A38 et A64] Aver.** March 16 April 16 May 16
(C1) Man. of goods products and beverages
Past activity 6 –2 4 13
Finished-goods inventory 12 17 13 17
Global order books –18 –16 –10 –13
Export order books –15 –10 –6 –10
Personal production expectations 7 8 5 6
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods
Past activity 4 –5 11 8
Finished-goods inventory 17 17 20 20
Global order books –24 –18 –20 –25
Export order books –22 –21 –19 –28
Personal production expectations 2 5 4 3
(C4) Man. of transport equipment
Past activity 8 26 35 27
Finished-goods inventory 14 22 3 5
Global order books –13 5 18 4
Export order books –10 6 15 5
Personal production expectations 9 39 33 24
Man. of motor vehicules, trailers and semi-trailers [CL1]
Past activity 4 44 42 34
Finished-goods inventory 10 0 –2 2
Global order books –19 –4 26 2
Export order books –13 –4 23 2
Personal production expectations 4 45 57 40
Man. of other transport equipment [CL2]
Past activity 15 10 27 32
Finished-goods inventory 21 45 9 7
Global order books –4 14 9 7
Export order books –7 14 9 7
Personal production expectations 15 39 15 12
(C5) Other manufacturing
Past activity 1 –5 0 6
Finished-goods inventory 10 5 9 6
Global order books –20 –20 –17 –17
Export order books –16 –10 –10 –7
Personal production expectations 4 5 1 3
Man. of chemicals and chemical products [CE]
Past activity 6 11 6 –4
Finished-goods inventory 6 14 7 3
Global order books –13 –16 –12 –9
Export order books –9 –4 –4 4
Personal production expectations 13 –6 1 8
Man. of basic pharmaceutical products [CF]
Past activity 16 –28 –3 60
Finished-goods inventory 9 –38 3 4
Global order books 3 –2 –2 –4
Export order books 5 2 –1 –5
Personal production expectations 15 51 2 12
Man. of rubber and plastic products [CG]
Past activity –3 –1 –1 15
Finished-goods inventory 11 9 10 10
Global order books –26 –21 –24 –22
Export order books –22 –14 –11 –5
Personal production expectations –1 9 5 3
Man. of basic metals and fabricated metal products [CH]
Past activity 0 –5 3 10
Finished-goods inventory 7 7 15 10
Global order books –20 –26 –19 –17
Export order books –20 –23 –19 –19
Personal production expectations 1 –1 2 –1
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the French classification of activities NAF rév.2.
  • ** Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business tendency survey