25 March 2016

2016- n° 83
In March 2016, households' confidence declines again Monthly consumer confidence survey - March 2016

In March 2016, households' confidence has weakened slightly after a downturn in February: the synthetic confidence index has lost 1 point and reached 94, its lowest level since August 2015. Thus, it has deviated further from its long-term average (100) over the period 1987-2015.

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Personal situation
Financial situation: expectations decreasing again
Saving capacity: contraction
Economic situation in France
Standard of living in France: expectations declining again
Unemployment: fears receding
Perceived inflation: at its lowest level

Personal situation

Financial situation: expectations decreasing again

In March, households' opinion of their past personal financial situation is stable compared to February. However, the expectations have worsened again: the corresponding balance has lost 4 points and has reached its lowest level since February, 2015. Both balances are below their long-term average.

In March, the share of households considering it has been a suitable time to make major purchases is the same as in February. The balance remains slightly above its long-term average.

Saving capacity: contraction

In March, households' balance of opinion on their current saving capacity has faltered (−2 points), thus hitting its lowest level since March, 2012. The one concerning their expected saving capacity has fallen by 4 points. The two balances are close to their long-term average.

In March, the share of households considering it has been a suitable time to save is the same as in February. The corresponding balance is clearly below its long term average.

graphiquegraph1_english – Consumer confidence synthetic index

tableauTab_eng – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted

CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances (Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted)
		2015	2016
	Av. (1)	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.
Synthetic index (2)	100	96	97	95	94
Financial sit., past 12 m.	−21	−25	−24	−25	−25
Financial sit., next 12 m.	–5	−7	−8	−10	−14
Current saving capacity	8	10	8	8	6
Expected saving capacity	−9	−5	−7	−6	−10
Savings intentions, next 12 m.	18	6	2	−2	−2
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m.	−15	–15	−6	−12	−12
Standard of living, past 12 m.	−45	−55	−55	−57	−58
Standard of living, next 12 m.	−25	−31	−25	−33	−37
Unemployment, next 12 m.	35	46	32	46	42
Consumer prices, past 12 m.	−14	−52	−51	−55	−56
Consumer prices, next 12 m.	−34	−38	−39	−38	−35

(1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2015
(2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2015).
Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Economic situation in France

Standard of living in France: expectations declining again

In March, households' opinion on their expected standard of living in France has worsened again: the corresponding balance has lost 4 points, and reached its lowest level since February 2015. The balance on the past standard of living has diminished slightly (−1 point). Both balances remain clearly below their long term average.

graphiquegraph2_english – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living

Unemployment: fears receding

After a growth in February (+14 points), households' fears concerning unemployment have eased slightly in March (−4 points). However, the corresponding balance stays above its long-term average.

graphiquechomage_en – Households' unemployment expectations

Perceived inflation: at its lowest level

In March, households are slightly less numerous than in February to consider that prices increased during the past 12 months: the corresponding balance has lost 1 point and reached its lowest level since 1987 (starting date of the monthly series). However, more households consider that prices should increase during the next 12 months: the corresponding balance has grown by 3 points, and stands at virtually its long-term average.