24 February 2016
2016- n° 48In February 2016, households' confidence falls back Monthly consumer confidence survey - February 2016
In February 2016, households' confidence has declined: the synthetic confidence index has lost 2 points and now stands at 95. It has deviated further from its long-term average (100).
In February 2016, households' confidence has declined: the synthetic confidence index has lost 2 points and now stands at 95. It has deviated further from its long-term average (100).
Personal situation
Financial situation: declining slightly
In February, households' opinion of their past personal financial situation is virtually stable: the balance of opinion has lost 1 point. Their opinion regarding their future financial situation has weakened slightly: the corresponding balance has lost 2 points. These two balances remain below their long-term average.
Households are markedly less numerous than in January to consider it has been a suitable time to make major purchases: after a rebound of 8 points in the previous month, the balance of opinion has fallen back by 6 points in February. However, it remains above its long term average.
Saving capacity: virtually stable
In February, households' opinion of their saving capacity has barely changed. The balance of opinion on their current saving capacity stays at its long term average level. The one on their expected saving capacity is virtually stable (+1 point) and remains slightly above its long term average.
Households are once again less numerous to consider it has been a suitable time to save: the balance has dipped by 4 points in February and now stands at its lowest level since August 2015. Thus it has continued to deviate further from its long term average.
graphiquegraph1_english – Consumer confidence synthetic index
- Source: INSEE
tableauTab_eng – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
| 2015 | 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Av. (1) | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | |
| Synthetic index (2) | 100 | 96 | 96 | 97 | 95 |
| Financial sit., past 12 m. | –21 | –24 | –25 | –24 | –25 |
| Financial sit., next 12 m. | –5 | –10 | –7 | –8 | –10 |
| Current saving capacity | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Expected saving capacity | –9 | –4 | –5 | –6 | –5 |
| Savings intentions, next 12 m. | 18 | 4 | 6 | 2 | –2 |
| Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. | –15 | –14 | –14 | –6 | –12 |
| Standard of living, past 12 m. | –45 | –53 | –55 | –55 | –56 |
| Standard of living, next 12 m. | –25 | –30 | –30 | –25 | –32 |
| Unemployment, next 12 m. | 35 | 35 | 46 | 33 | 46 |
| Consumer prices, past 12 m. | –14 | –49 | –52 | –51 | –55 |
| Consumer prices, next 12 m. | –34 | –42 | –38 | –39 | –38 |
- (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2015
- (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2015).
- Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey
Economic situation in France
Standard of living in France: expectations declining substantially
In February, households' opinion on their expected standard of living in France has diminished anew: the corresponding balance has lost 7 points, after a rise of 5 points in January. The balance on the past standard of living is virtually stable (−1 point). Both balances remain below their long term average.
graphiquegraph2_english – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living
- Source: INSEE
Unemployment: fears increasing anew
After having decreased in January, households' fears concerning unemployment have heightened anew in February: the corresponding balance has increased by 13 points and is back to its level of last December. It returns above its long term average.
graphiquechomage_en – Households' unemployment expectations
- Source: INSEE
Inflation perceived: slipping
In February, households are less numerous than in January to consider that prices increased during the past 12 months: the corresponding balance has lost 4 points. Regarding the expected rise in prices over the next 12 months, the balance of opinion is virtually stable (+1 point). These two balances remain below their long term average; the balance on the past change in prices stands far below it.
graphiqueprix_en – Households' perception of prices
- Source: INSEE
Revision
The balances and the synthetic confidence index have been revised slightly over the past months because of the update of the seasonal adjustment coefficients. In particular, the synthetic confidence index in November is now estimated at 96, against 97 in the previous publication.
Pour en savoir plus
