In February 2016, households' confidence falls backMonthly consumer confidence survey - February 2016

In February 2016, households' confidence has declined: the synthetic confidence index has lost 2 points and now stands at 95. It has deviated further from its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 48
Paru le : 24/02/2016
Prochaine parution le : 27/09/2017 at 08:45 - September 2017

In February 2016, households' confidence has declined: the synthetic confidence index has lost 2 points and now stands at 95. It has deviated further from its long-term average (100).

Personal situation

Financial situation: declining slightly

In February, households' opinion of their past personal financial situation is virtually stable: the balance of opinion has lost 1 point. Their opinion regarding their future financial situation has weakened slightly: the corresponding balance has lost 2 points. These two balances remain below their long-term average.

Households are markedly less numerous than in January to consider it has been a suitable time to make major purchases: after a rebound of 8 points in the previous month, the balance of opinion has fallen back by 6 points in February. However, it remains above its long term average.

Saving capacity: virtually stable

In February, households' opinion of their saving capacity has barely changed. The balance of opinion on their current saving capacity stays at its long term average level. The one on their expected saving capacity is virtually stable (+1 point) and remains slightly above its long term average.

Households are once again less numerous to consider it has been a suitable time to save: the balance has dipped by 4 points in February and now stands at its lowest level since August 2015. Thus it has continued to deviate further from its long term average.

graph1_english – Consumer confidence synthetic index

  • Source: INSEE

Tab_eng – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances

Balance of responses, seasonally adjusted
CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
2015 2016
Av. (1) Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
Synthetic index (2) 100 96 96 97 95
Financial sit., past 12 m. –21 –24 –25 –24 –25
Financial sit., next 12 m. –5 –10 –7 –8 –10
Current saving capacity 8 10 10 8 8
Expected saving capacity –9 –4 –5 –6 –5
Savings intentions, next 12 m. 18 4 6 2 –2
Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. –15 –14 –14 –6 –12
Standard of living, past 12 m. –45 –53 –55 –55 –56
Standard of living, next 12 m. –25 –30 –30 –25 –32
Unemployment, next 12 m. 35 35 46 33 46
Consumer prices, past 12 m. –14 –49 –52 –51 –55
Consumer prices, next 12 m. –34 –42 –38 –39 –38
  • (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2015
  • (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2015).
  • Source: INSEE, monthly consumer confidence survey

Economic situation in France

Standard of living in France: expectations declining substantially

In February, households' opinion on their expected standard of living in France has diminished anew: the corresponding balance has lost 7 points, after a rise of 5 points in January. The balance on the past standard of living is virtually stable (−1 point). Both balances remain below their long term average.

graph2_english – Balances on personal financial situation and standard of living

  • Source: INSEE

Unemployment: fears increasing anew

After having decreased in January, households' fears concerning unemployment have heightened anew in February: the corresponding balance has increased by 13 points and is back to its level of last December. It returns above its long term average.

chomage_en – Households' unemployment expectations

  • Source: INSEE

Inflation perceived: slipping

In February, households are less numerous than in January to consider that prices increased during the past 12 months: the corresponding balance has lost 4 points. Regarding the expected rise in prices over the next 12 months, the balance of opinion is virtually stable (+1 point). These two balances remain below their long term average; the balance on the past change in prices stands far below it.

prix_en – Households' perception of prices

  • Source: INSEE

Revision

The balances and the synthetic confidence index have been revised slightly over the past months because of the update of the seasonal adjustment coefficients. In particular, the synthetic confidence index in November is now estimated at 96, against 97 in the previous publication.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 64 Ko)