In July 2015, the business climate in manufacturing has improved againMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - July 2015

According to the business managers surveyed, the business climate in industry has improved in July 2015: after a decrease of three points in June, the composite indicator which measures it has increased by two points and at 102, is now above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 176
Paru le : 22/07/2015
Prochaine parution le : 21/12/2017 at 08:45 - December 2017

Manufacturing industry

According to the business managers surveyed, the business climate in industry has improved in July 2015: after a decrease of three points in June, the composite indicator which measures it has increased by two points and at 102, is now above its long-term average (100).

Graphang1 – Business climate in industry - Composite indicator

The turning-point indicator has increased and is in the zone indicating a favourable economic outlook.

Graphang2 – Turning-point indicator

In July, the balance of opinion on past activity, already above its long-term average, has slightly increased (+2 points) and stands. The one on personal production expectations has diminished (-3 points) while remaining close to its long-term average.

A few more industrialists considered that general production expectations of the sector has improved, the balance of opinion being significantly above its mean level.

In July, global and export order books have improved and the corresponding balances have become higher than their long-term average.

Finally, as many industrialists as in the previous month judge that stocks of finished products are lower than normal. The corresponding balance is below its average.

tableau1 – Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing industrial activity

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing industrial activity
Manufacturing industry Ave.* April 15 May 15 June 15 July 15
Composite indicator 100 102 103 100 102
Past activity 4 5 16 5 7
Finished-goods inventory 13 8 9 7 7
Global order books –18 –18 –19 –22 –17
Export order books –14 –8 –13 –14 –8
Personal production expectations 5 6 6 7 4
General production expectations –9 2 –1 –3 1
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source : Monthly business survey - Insee

Sector-based analysis

MAN. OF FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity has been virtually stable since May at a level higher than its long-term average. The one on expected activity has declined again and has become lower than its long-term mean. The balance on stocks of finished products has slightly decreased and stays to a level lower than average. Global and export order books have improved: the corresponding balances are at their highest level since July 2011, above their long-term average.

MACHINENERY AND EQUIPMENT GOODS

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, industrialists judge that their past activity has risen over the last three months and has reached a normal level. Conversely, the balance of opinion on production expectations has deteriorated and has strayed from its long-term average. The balance of opinion on stocks of finished products has slightly increased and remains close to its average. Global order books have improved, mainly due to export order books: the corresponding balance of opinion has reached its long-term average.

MAN. OF TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

Man. of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balance on past activity has bounced back and has reached its highest level since January 2000, significantly above its long term average. However, the one on production prospects has dropped again, to a level close to its average. Global order books have decreased slightly, especially abroad, however the corresponding balance of opinion stays above normal. The balance of stocks of finished goods has diminished and has diverged even more from its long-term average.

Man. of other transport equipment

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balance on past activity has slightly fallen and the one on production prospects has deteriorated. Those balances remains below their mean level. The balance of opinion on stocks of finished products is virtually stable above its long term level. Global order books are also stable, the corresponding balance of opinion is clearly above its long-term average.

OTHER MANUFACTURING

In “other manufacturing”, the balance of business managers’ opinion on their past activity has climbed in all sectors, excepted in the manufacture of pharmaceutical where it has slumped to a level inferior to its mean level. However, the balance on expected activity has taken off in the manufacture of pharmaceuticals products; it has continued to pick up in that of basic metals, it is virtually stable in that of plastics products, while it has deteriorated in that of chemical products. Excepted in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products, global and export order books have improved in all sectors and the corresponding balances of opinion are above their mean level. Finally, the balance of opinion on finished-goods inventories has climbed in the manufacture of chemicals, in that of basic metals and in that of pharmaceutical products, but remains below its mean level. In that of plastics products it is stable at its mean level.

tableau2 – Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A 38 et A 64] Aver.** May 15 June 15 July 15
(C1) Man. of goods products and beverages
Past activity 6 14 13 14
Finished-goods inventory 12 7 9 6
Global order books –18 –16 –13 –9
Export order books –13 –10 –5 2
Personal production expectations 7 11 8 2
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods
Past activity 4 –2 –7 5
Finished-goods inventory 17 24 17 19
Global order books –24 –27 –30 –27
Export order books –21 –26 –29 –21
Personal production expectations 2 4 0 –10
(C4) Man. of transport equipment
Past activity 8 31 16 38
Finished-goods inventory 14 21 26 21
Global order books –14 1 5 4
Export order books –12 –15 –9 –10
Personal production expectations 8 34 18 –11
Man. of motor vehicules, trailers and semi-trailers [CL1]
Past activity 3 61 22 73
Finished-goods inventory 10 –2 4 –8
Global order books –20 –16 –11 –13
Export order books –14 –11 –10 –14
Personal production expectations 3 38 21 5
Man. of other transport equipment [CL2]
Past activity 15 18 11 7
Finished-goods inventory 20 44 50 51
Global order books –5 19 22 22
Export order books –10 –17 –7 –7
Personal production expectations 15 42 7 –17
(C5) Other manufacturing
Past activity 1 4 3 –2
Finished-goods inventory 10 4 –1 6
Global order books –20 –20 –24 –17
Export order books –13 –7 –10 –3
Personal production expectations 4 –3 4 6
Man. of chemicals and chemical products [CE]
Past activity 5 4 –15 –9
Finished-goods inventory 6 –7 –11 –3
Global order books –13 –6 –17 –7
Export order books –8 3 –8 6
Personal production expectations 13 24 13 6
Man. of basic pharmaceutical products [CF]
Past activity 16 13 56 –31
Finished-goods inventory 9 7 –38 6
Global order books 3 4 3 –2
Export order books 10 5 4 1
Personal production expectations 15 –37 –28 50
Man. of rubber and plastics products [CG]
Past activity –3 0 2 5
Finished-goods inventory 11 12 11 11
Global order books –25 –44 –39 –35
Export order books –18 –20 –13 –9
Personal production expectations –2 –12 –5 –5
Man. of basic metals and fabricated metal products [CH]
Past activity 0 14 1 10
Finished-goods inventory 7 6 –1 5
Global order books –20 –24 –23 –20
Export order books –15 –17 –11 –3
Personal production expectations 1 0 3 8
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the NAF rév.2.
  • ** Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business survey