In July 2014, the business climate in manufacturing industry is stableMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - July 2014

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2014, the business climate in industry has not changed compared to the previous month. The composite indicator is stable (97) and stands below its long-term average.

Informations rapides
No 166
Paru le : 23/07/2014
Prochaine parution le : 26/09/2017 at 08:45 - September 2017

Manufacturing industry

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2014, the business climate in industry has not changed compared to the previous month. The composite indicator is stable (97) and stands below its long-term average.

Graphang1 – Industrial economic climate - Composite indicator

The turning-point indicator, which has slightly increased compared to June, has leaved the unfavourable area to go in in the zone indicating an economic uncertainty.

Graphang2 – Turning-point indicator

The balance of opinion on past change in production has weakened and stands at a level very close to its long-term average. As for the balance of opinion on personal production expectation, it has slightly decreased and stands at a level below its long-term average.

While global order books have slightly increased, export order books are stable. Nevertheless a majority of industrialists keeps considering them as below their normal level.

The balance on general production expectations, which represents business managers’ opinion on French industry as a whole, is nearly stable, at a level which is below its long-term average.

Finally, stocks of finished products are stable and are very close to their normal level.

tableau1 – Industrialists'opinion on manufacturing industrial activity

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists'opinion on manufacturing industrial activity
Manufacturing industry Aver. (1) April 14 May 14 June 14 July 14
Composite indicator (2) 100 101 99 97 97
Past activity 4 4 11 10 5
Finished-goods inventory 13 11 13 12 12
Global order books –18 –18 –23 –27 –23
Export order books –14 –18 –21 –24 –24
Personal production expectations 5 11 4 2 0
General production expectations –9 –10 –12 –19 –18
  • (1) Average since 1976.
  • (2) This indicator is standardized with a mean equal to 100 and a standard-deviation equal to 10.
  • Source : Monthly business survey - Insee

Sector-based analysis

MAN. OF FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity has gone down and is anew below its long-term average. Stocks of finished products have gone up but are still considered as close to their normal level. While global order books have improved and are considered as normal, export order books are nearly stable and are anew described as very weakly filled. The balance on expected activity has deteriorated and is below its long-term level.

ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT; MACHINE EQUIPMENT

In the manufacture of electrical and electronic equipment, machine equipment, industrialists consider that their past activity has stopped to decrease. Stocks of finished products have gone up clearly and are now described as above their normal level. The global and foreign demand keep deteriorating and are considered by the industrialists as very weak. Likewise their production expectations have markedly deteriorated.

MAN. OF TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

Man. of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the past activity remains dynamic over the last three months. The expected production have clearly improved, so that indicates a renewal of activity over the next three months. However the industrialists of the sector consider that global and export order are still weakly filled : the corresponding balances remain clearly below their long-term average. The finished-goods inventory level is considered as close to the normal level.

Man. of other transport equipment

In July, in the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balance of opinion on past activity has increased and stands at a level markedly above its long-term average. Stocks of finished products have sharply gone down and are now considered as below their normal level. Global order books are described as close to the normal level, but the foreign order books are considered as very below their normal level. According to the industrialists from this area, activity is likely to less dynamic over the next months.

OTHER MANUFACTURING

According to business managers, the past activity has deteriorated in the manufacture of chemicals, in that of pharmaceutical products and in the manufacture of basic metals, and remain deteriorated in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products. The business managers have anticipated a deterioration of their activity in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products and in that of basic metals and a very deteriorated production in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and in that of chemicals. In all the sectors, the level of global and export order books is described as low, except in the manufacture of basic metals where the export order books have markedly increased. At last, the finished-goods inventory have markedly gone up in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products where their level is considered high, and are stable in the three other sectors : but while they are described as close to their normal level in the manufacture of chemicals, their level is considered as low in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and in that of basic metals.

tableau2 – Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A 38 et A 64] Aver.** May 14 June 14 July 14
(C1) Man. of goods products and beverages
Past activity 6 9 6 2
Finished-goods inventory 12 10 10 14
Global order books –18 –17 –21 –18
Export order books –13 –21 –22 –23
Personal production expectations 7 2 5 1
(C3) Electrical and electronic equipment; machine equipment
Past activity 4 0 –12 1
Finished-goods inventory 17 29 16 24
Global order books –23 –35 –41 –43
Export order books –21 –33 –40 –44
Personal production expectations 3 –4 –7 –17
(C4) Man. of transport equipment
Past activity 8 41 47 47
Finished-goods inventory 14 9 28 11
Global order books –14 –26 –24 –23
Export order books –12 –34 –35 –35
Personal production expectations 8 32 15 21
Man. of motor vehicules, trailers and semi-trailers [CL1]
Past activity 3 58 60 60
Finished-goods inventory 10 10 9 9
Global order books –20 –43 –42 –39
Export order books –14 –39 –39 –40
Personal production expectations 3 55 12 41
Man. of other transport equipment [CL2]
Past activity 15 39 29 36
Finished-goods inventory 20 8 52 15
Global order books –6 –2 0 –1
Export order books –9 –29 –30 –30
Personal production expectations 14 18 7 7
(C5) Other manufacturing
Past activity 1 3 2 –6
Finished-goods inventory 11 9 6 7
Global order books –20 –22 –24 –23
Export order books –13 –13 –15 –10
Personal production expectations 4 0 –2 –10
Man. of chemicals and chemical products [CE]
Past activity 6 4 9 –5
Finished-goods inventory 7 0 8 7
Global order books –13 –16 –16 –23
Export order books –8 –9 –9 –9
Personal production expectations 14 12 –6 –6
Man. of basic pharmaceutical products [CF]
Past activity 16 –26 1 –35
Finished-goods inventory 9 6 2 0
Global order books 3 –3 –3 –1
Export order books 10 0 –2 –2
Personal production expectations 15 8 –44 –44
Man. of rubber and plastics products [CG]
Past activity –3 –2 –14 –15
Finished-goods inventory 10 1 11 19
Global order books –25 –28 –39 –43
Export order books –18 –15 –24 –22
Personal production expectations –1 –12 –16 –26
Man. of basic metals and fabricated metal products [CH]
Past activity –1 11 8 –1
Finished-goods inventory 7 3 –1 –3
Global order books –20 –34 –32 –28
Export order books –16 –23 –26 –8
Personal production expectations 1 –2 0 –6
  • * NA: agragated manufacture, based on the NAF rév.2. The describe
  • of the NA is available in the web-page of this indicator.
  • ** Long-term average.
  • Source : Monthly business survey - Insee