23 July 2014

2014- n° 166

In July 2014, the business climate in manufacturing industry is stable Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - July 2014

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2014, the business climate in industry has not changed compared to the previous month. The composite indicator is stable (97) and stands below its long-term average.

The turning-point indicator, which has slightly increased compared to June, has leaved the unfavourable area to go in in the zone indicating an economic uncertainty.

The balance of opinion on past change in production has weakened and stands at a level very close to its long-term average. As for the balance of opinion on personal production expectation, it has slightly decreased and stands at a level below its long-term average.

While global order books have slightly increased, export order books are stable. Nevertheless a majority of industrialists keeps considering them as below their normal level.

The balance on general production expectations, which represents business managers’ opinion on French industry as a whole, is nearly stable, at a level which is below its long-term average.

Finally, stocks of finished products are stable and are very close to their normal level.

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity has gone down and is anew below its long-term average. Stocks of finished products have gone up but are still considered as close to their normal level. While global order books have improved and are considered as normal, export order books are nearly stable and are anew described as very weakly filled. The balance on expected activity has deteriorated and is below its long-term level.

In the manufacture of electrical and electronic equipment, machine equipment, industrialists consider that their past activity has stopped to decrease. Stocks of finished products have gone up clearly and are now described as above their normal level. The global and foreign demand keep deteriorating and are considered by the industrialists as very weak. Likewise their production expectations have markedly deteriorated.

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the past activity remains dynamic over the last three months. The expected production have clearly improved, so that indicates a renewal of activity over the next three months. However the industrialists of the sector consider that global and export order are still weakly filled : the corresponding balances remain clearly below their long-term average. The finished-goods inventory level is considered as close to the normal level.

In July, in the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balance of opinion on past activity has increased and stands at a level markedly above its long-term average. Stocks of finished products have sharply gone down and are now considered as below their normal level. Global order books are described as close to the normal level, but the foreign order books are considered as very below their normal level. According to the industrialists from this area, activity is likely to less dynamic over the next months.

According to business managers, the past activity has deteriorated in the manufacture of chemicals, in that of pharmaceutical products and in the manufacture of basic metals, and remain deteriorated in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products. The business managers have anticipated a deterioration of their activity in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products and in that of basic metals and a very deteriorated production in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and in that of chemicals. In all the sectors, the level of global and export order books is described as low, except in the manufacture of basic metals where the export order books have markedly increased. At last, the finished-goods inventory have markedly gone up in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products where their level is considered high, and are stable in the three other sectors : but while they are described as close to their normal level in the manufacture of chemicals, their level is considered as low in the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and in that of basic metals.