The economic outlook in the wholesale trade has decreased in July 2014Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - July 2014

According to the managers surveyed in July 2014, the economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector has decreased. The composite indicator has dropped by three points since May, staying below its long-term average.

Informations rapides
No 169
Paru le : 23/07/2014
Prochaine parution le : 24/01/2018 at 08:45 - January 2018

Total wholesale trade

According to the managers surveyed in July 2014, the economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector has decreased. The composite indicator has dropped by three points since May, staying below its long-term average.

The turning-point indicator has declined and it is located in the neutral area.

Balances on past activity have shrunk…

Wholesalers have kept reporting a downturn in the past activity on the same trend since March while the balance of opinion on received deliveries has shrunk. Particularly, the balances of opinion on foreign exchanges have dropped and have gone down above their long-term averages.

… and will remain grim over the next months

At the same time, the general outlook for activity, which collects wholesalers’ opinions on French trade, has decreased dramatically. Global intended orders have declined while orders from abroad have improved. The balance of opinion on shipments abroad over the next months is close to its long-term average.

In July, the stock level has stayed stable, below the long-term average.

More pessimistic employment expectations

More wholesalers than in May indicate a decline in labor force over the last few months, as over the next months.

Prices considered low

In July, as many wholesalers as in May report a price decrease in the past. However, fewer wholesalers expect a price decline over the next months. The two balances remain far below their mean level.

graph_indclimaff – Composite indicator

graph_indretournf – Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable).

tab_cgens – Total wholesale trade

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Total wholesale trade
MOY* Jan. 14 March 14 May 14 July 14
Composite indicator 100 97 99 99 96
General outlook –25 –27 –25 –25 –35
Sales –14 –23 –21 –20 –21
export sales –15 –19 –7 –15 –21
Received merchandise –9 –18 –14 –14 –17
received from abroad –10 –15 –10 –10 –14
Ordering intentions –15 –14 –18 –15 –17
ordering from abroad –15 –14 –18 –17 –13
Shipments abroad –16 –12 –19 –14 –15
Current stock 8 2 4 5 5
Past workforce –1 –5 –5 –4 –6
Expected workforce –3 –4 –2 –1 –4
Cash position –10 –7 –6 –5 –9
Past selling prices 8 –3 –7 –8 –9
Expecting selling prices 16 5 3 0 –3
  • * : average since September 1979
  • Source : French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee

Raw agricultural products and live animals

According to the wholesalers in this sector, both sales in France and abroad have falled considerably: the corresponding balances have dropped sharply and have set far below their averages. The balance of opinion on ordering intentions has shrunk dramatically.

Food products and beverages

According to wholesalers in the food products and drink sector, the balance of opinion on past activity has improved. The balance of opinion on exports has decreased and has set a level below its average. Ordering intentions have strengthened and the corresponding balance has reached its average.

Household goods

In this sector, wholesalers reported a past activity more dynamic than in May. The balance of opinion on ordering intentions is located above its mean level.

Capital goods in information and communication

In capital goods in information and communication, sales have slightly better biased than in May. Nevertheless, wholesalers indicate a contraction of foreign exchanges. Ordering intentions over the next months are weaker than in May.

Other industrial capital goods

In this sector, contractors reported a dramatic decrease in their activity. Similarly, the balances of opinion on foreign exchanges have declined. Ordering intentions.

Other specialized wholesale trade

According to these wholesalers, activity has remained depressed. The balance of opinion on imports has gone down and the balance on exports has recovered but always indicates exports below their mean level. Managers are slightly more optimistic about ordering intentions.

graph_sect – Past activity (sales) in capital goods

tab_cgsect – Secteurs du commerce de gros

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Secteurs du commerce de gros
MOY* Jan. 14 March 14 May 14 July 14
Raw agricultural products and live animals
Sales –12 –10 –7 –10 –17
Export sales –15 –19 –2 –14 –32
Merchandise received from abroad –9 –19 –18 –14 –29
Ordering intentions –12 –10 –7 –10 –19
Current stock 5 –16 –8 –5 –2
Food products and beverages
Sales –15 –21 –8 –12 –8
Export sales –12 0 –4 –12 –23
Merchandise received from abroad –13 –7 –2 –12 –3
Ordering intentions –11 –11 –12 –13 –10
Current stock 5 –2 2 5 3
Household goods
Sales –10 –23 –22 –16 –9
Export sales –12 –26 5 1 1
Merchandise received from abroad –6 –12 –9 –13 –12
Ordering intentions –14 –11 –16 –13 –12
Current stock 12 6 1 5 6
Capital goods in information and communication
Sales –9 –29 –14 –15 –13
Export sales –13 –43 –13 –4 –15
Merchandise received from abroad –7 –18 6 12 –1
Ordering intentions –10 –13 0 –1 –6
Current stock 8 12 11 6 24
Other industrial capital goods
Sales –16 –27 –19 –27 –36
Export sales –21 –28 –18 –13 –22
Merchandise received from abroad –11 –19 –10 –7 –17
Ordering intentions –22 –26 –25 –26 –29
Current stock 12 9 15 5 2
Other specialized wholesale trade
Sales –17 –27 –40 –35 –37
Export sales –19 –15 –17 –40 –33
Merchandise received from abroad –13 –16 –20 –17 –19
Ordering intentions –19 –15 –29 –20 –18
Current stock 6 –1 6 9 7
  • * : average since September 1979
  • Source: French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee