23 July 2014
2014- n° 169The economic outlook in the wholesale trade has decreased in July 2014 Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - July 2014
According to the managers surveyed in July 2014, the economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector has decreased. The composite indicator has dropped by three points since May, staying below its long-term average.
- Total wholesale trade
- Balances on past activity have shrunk…
- … and will remain grim over the next months
- More pessimistic employment expectations
- Prices considered low
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialized wholesale trade
Total wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in July 2014, the economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector has decreased. The composite indicator has dropped by three points since May, staying below its long-term average.
The turning-point indicator has declined and it is located in the neutral area.
Balances on past activity have shrunk…
Wholesalers have kept reporting a downturn in the past activity on the same trend since March while the balance of opinion on received deliveries has shrunk. Particularly, the balances of opinion on foreign exchanges have dropped and have gone down above their long-term averages.
… and will remain grim over the next months
At the same time, the general outlook for activity, which collects wholesalers’ opinions on French trade, has decreased dramatically. Global intended orders have declined while orders from abroad have improved. The balance of opinion on shipments abroad over the next months is close to its long-term average.
In July, the stock level has stayed stable, below the long-term average.
More pessimistic employment expectations
More wholesalers than in May indicate a decline in labor force over the last few months, as over the next months.
Prices considered low
In July, as many wholesalers as in May report a price decrease in the past. However, fewer wholesalers expect a price decline over the next months. The two balances remain far below their mean level.
graphiquegraph_indclimaff – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_indretournf – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable).
tableautab_cgens – Total wholesale trade
| MOY* | Jan. 14 | March 14 | May 14 | July 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 97 | 99 | 99 | 96 |
| General outlook | –25 | –27 | –25 | –25 | –35 |
| Sales | –14 | –23 | –21 | –20 | –21 |
| export sales | –15 | –19 | –7 | –15 | –21 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –18 | –14 | –14 | –17 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –15 | –10 | –10 | –14 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –14 | –18 | –15 | –17 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –14 | –18 | –17 | –13 |
| Shipments abroad | –16 | –12 | –19 | –14 | –15 |
| Current stock | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Past workforce | –1 | –5 | –5 | –4 | –6 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | –4 | –2 | –1 | –4 |
| Cash position | –10 | –7 | –6 | –5 | –9 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | –3 | –7 | –8 | –9 |
| Expecting selling prices | 16 | 5 | 3 | 0 | –3 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source : French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee
Raw agricultural products and live animals
According to the wholesalers in this sector, both sales in France and abroad have falled considerably: the corresponding balances have dropped sharply and have set far below their averages. The balance of opinion on ordering intentions has shrunk dramatically.
Food products and beverages
According to wholesalers in the food products and drink sector, the balance of opinion on past activity has improved. The balance of opinion on exports has decreased and has set a level below its average. Ordering intentions have strengthened and the corresponding balance has reached its average.
Household goods
In this sector, wholesalers reported a past activity more dynamic than in May. The balance of opinion on ordering intentions is located above its mean level.
Capital goods in information and communication
In capital goods in information and communication, sales have slightly better biased than in May. Nevertheless, wholesalers indicate a contraction of foreign exchanges. Ordering intentions over the next months are weaker than in May.
Other industrial capital goods
In this sector, contractors reported a dramatic decrease in their activity. Similarly, the balances of opinion on foreign exchanges have declined. Ordering intentions.
Other specialized wholesale trade
According to these wholesalers, activity has remained depressed. The balance of opinion on imports has gone down and the balance on exports has recovered but always indicates exports below their mean level. Managers are slightly more optimistic about ordering intentions.
graphiquegraph_sect – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableautab_cgsect – Secteurs du commerce de gros
| MOY* | Jan. 14 | March 14 | May 14 | July 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –10 | –7 | –10 | –17 |
| Export sales | –15 | –19 | –2 | –14 | –32 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –9 | –19 | –18 | –14 | –29 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –10 | –7 | –10 | –19 |
| Current stock | 5 | –16 | –8 | –5 | –2 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –15 | –21 | –8 | –12 | –8 |
| Export sales | –12 | 0 | –4 | –12 | –23 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –7 | –2 | –12 | –3 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –11 | –12 | –13 | –10 |
| Current stock | 5 | –2 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –10 | –23 | –22 | –16 | –9 |
| Export sales | –12 | –26 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –6 | –12 | –9 | –13 | –12 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –11 | –16 | –13 | –12 |
| Current stock | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –29 | –14 | –15 | –13 |
| Export sales | –13 | –43 | –13 | –4 | –15 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | –18 | 6 | 12 | –1 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –13 | 0 | –1 | –6 |
| Current stock | 8 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 24 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –16 | –27 | –19 | –27 | –36 |
| Export sales | –21 | –28 | –18 | –13 | –22 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –19 | –10 | –7 | –17 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –26 | –25 | –26 | –29 |
| Current stock | 12 | 9 | 15 | 5 | 2 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –17 | –27 | –40 | –35 | –37 |
| Export sales | –19 | –15 | –17 | –40 | –33 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –16 | –20 | –17 | –19 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –15 | –29 | –20 | –18 |
| Current stock | 6 | –1 | 6 | 9 | 7 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
