20 March 2015

2015- n° 65

In February 2015, oil prices bounced back after seven months of decline Prices of oil and raw material imports - February 2015

In February 2015, the price of crude oil rose again (+22.5%), following seven months of decline, to average €51.0 per barrel of Brent. Prices of imported commodities except energy in euros climbed (+1.7%), due to an increase in prices of industrial raw materials (+2.4%) and those of minerals (+3.4%).

In February, the price of crude oil from the North Sea (Brent) in dollars picked up (+19.6% after –22.1%). The signs of a dwindling rig count coupled with a drop in investments from the oil companies seem to be the main triggering factors of a downward reassessment of output prospects and therefore of a rallying barrel price. In euros, the Brent price recovered more sharply (+22.5% after –17.5%), the European currency kept depreciating against the U.S. dollar (–2.4% in February 2015).

In February, prices of industrial raw materials in euros became higher (+2.4% after +1.2% in January), mainly due to the European currency depreciation.

Prices of minerals sped up (+3.4% after -0.1%). Prices of non-ferrous metals bounced back (+5.0% after -1.5%), even though those of precious metals came to a standstill (+0.9% after +9.5%), particularly those of gold (+0.1% after +10.5%), while those of iron ore were slumping again following a one-off increase (-4.7% after +3.7%).

Prices of agricultural raw materials weakened (-0.2% after +4.1%), on account of the drop in paper pulp prices (–0.5% after +5.7%), and those of sawn softwood (-0.8% after +2.2%). However, prices of tropical wood (+3.5% after +2.7%) and those of natural fibers (+5.7% after +4.4%) accelerated. Cotton prices indeed remained dynamic (+6.2% after +4.4%), on account of a downward trend in anticipated arables in China, in India and in the United States. Finally, prices of natural rubber recovered (+0.8% after -0.2%), in line with those of oil.

In February, prices of raw food materials in euros decelerated (+0.9% after +2.5%), due to a slowdown in prices of cereals (+2.0% after +5.0%), and those of tropical foodstuffs (+2.9% after +4.3%). Moreover, prices of sugar lessened (-1.3% after +6.4%), the volume of global stocks became high in light of the overall consumption level. Finally, prices of oil seeds and vegetable oils went down again (-4.7% after –1.0%), due to the fall in sunflower oil prices (-2.0% after +1.4%), and those of olive oil (-19.6% after +5.9%).