23 January 2015
2015- n° 17In January 2015, the economic climate has slightly declined in the building construction
industry Monthly survey of building - January 2015
According to the business managers surveyed in January 2015, the business climate is still deteriorated in the building construction industry. The composite indicator has lost one point (from 89 to 88), and deviating further from its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator has gone into the unfavorable zone.
According to the business managers surveyed in January 2015, the business climate is still deteriorated in the building construction industry. The composite indicator has lost one point (from 89 to 88), and deviating further from its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator has gone into the unfavorable zone.
graphiqueClimate – Composite indicator
graphiqueTurningPoint – Turning-point indicator
- Lecture: close to 1 (respectively -1), it indicates a favorable climate (respectively unfavorable).
tableauTableau1 – Building industry economic outlook
| Mean* | Oct. 14 | Nov. 14 | Dec. 14 | Jan. 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 86 | 89 | 89 | 88 |
| Past activity | –3 | –33 | –22 | –21 | –21 |
| Expected activity | –6 | –34 | –24 | –27 | –35 |
| Gen. business outlook | –19 | –46 | –50 | ||
| Past employment | –4 | –32 | –26 | –26 | –30 |
| Expected employment | –3 | –26 | –25 | –25 | –30 |
| Opinion on order books | –22 | –59 | –58 | –58 | –57 |
| Order books (in month) | 5.3 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| Productive capacity utilisation rate | 88.7 | 84.6 | 84.6 | 84.2 | 84.0 |
| Obstacles to production increase (in %) | 33 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 20 |
| - Because of workforce shortage (in %) | 14.9 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Recruiting problems (in %) | 58 | 41 | 38 | ||
| Expected prices | –14 | –35 | –36 | –38 | –36 |
| Cash-flow position | –10 | –25 | –27 | ||
| Repayment period | 29 | 44 | 49 |
- * Mean since September 1993.
- Source: French business survey in the building industry - INSEE
Activity is still deteriorated
In January 2015, as business managers as in December have deemed that their activity has deteriorated in the recent period. They are substantially more pessimistic about their expected activity and the corresponding balance has reached its lowest level since May 2009. The two corresponding balances are well below their long-term average. The business managers’ opinions about the general trend in the sector have worsened : the balance of opinion of the general business outlook, already much below its long-term average, has further deteriorated since October.
graphiqueActivity – Activity tendency in the building industry
Increased pessimism about expected workforce
More business managers than in December have pointed out a fall in past and expected employment. The corresponding balances are substantially below their long-term average.
graphiqueWorkforce – Workforce size tendency in the building industry
Order books are considered very low
Business managers have still considered their order books lower than normal.
graphiqueOrderBooks – Order books
Slightly over unused productive capacity
In January 2015, the productive capacity utilization rate continues to fall and has reached its lowest level since February 2009. At the same time, one business manager out of five declare having difficulties increasing, against one out of three in average since 1993. Only 38 % of construction firms still have difficulties in recruiting labor force, against 58 % in average.
graphiquePcur – Productive capacity utilization rate
Cash flow position slighty more deteriorated
In January, slightly fewer business managers than in December indicate price downturns. However, the corresponding balance of opinion remains clearly below its long-term average. According to business leaders, the cash-flow position of the overall sector is a little more deteriorated than in the previous quarter and the repayment period gets longer.
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