22 May 2015
2015- n° 122In May 2015, the business climate has improved in the retail trade and in the trade
and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - May 2015
According to the managers surveyed in May 2015, the business climate has improved in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles. The corresponding synthetic indicator has increased by two points. It has been over its long-term average since the beginning of the year.
According to the managers surveyed in May 2015, the business climate has improved in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles. The corresponding synthetic indicator has increased by two points. It has been over its long-term average since the beginning of the year.
graphiquegraph_indsynt_en – Business climate synthetic indicator
Optimistic expectations
The balance concerning past sales has been roughly stable, with different situations according to the sectors: its has remained very high in motor car trade, but under its average in retail trade.
Managers have been more optimistic about forecasts. Each of the three balances concerning expected sales, ordering intentions and general business outlook, already over its average in April, has progressed in May.
Stocks have been estimated stable, and under their standard level.
Fewer business leaders than over the last interrogation have declared price falls in the past, a little more have expected some over the next few months.
Their cash position is still estimed rather difficult.
graphiqueGraph_ventes_ic_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions
tableautab1_en – Global data
| Ave. (1) | Feb. 15 | Mar. 15 | April 15 | May 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 101 | 104 | 104 | 106 |
| General business outlook | –30 | –33 | –29 | –26 | –23 |
| Recent sales | –7 | –3 | –6 | –3 | –5 |
| Expected sales | –3 | –2 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| Ordering intentions | –9 | –6 | –3 | –3 | –2 |
| Stocks | 10 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 3 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –6 | –12 | –8 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –3 | –10 | –8 | –5 | –9 |
| Cash position (2) | –15 | –18 | –18 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 0 | –2 | –8 | –3 | –1 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –3 | –8 | –5 | –7 | –4 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles - INSEE
Less pessimism about employment
Each of both balances concerning recent and future trends on workforce size has slightly increased and has got closer to its mean level.
Retail trade
Past activity but more optimistic expectations
More non-specialised retailers than in April have declared a decrease in their past sales, the corresponding balance falling blelow under its average. In specialised retail trade, the balance concerning past activity has fell back again and has reached a very low level, especially in clothing and leather goods and in home furnishing and supplies.
In retail trade, forecasts have been globally more optimistic: the balance concerning expected sales has increased and the ordering intentions one is steady, each of both being over its mean level.
Compared to the last interrogation, fewer non-specialised business leaders have indicated price falls in the past. Non-specialised or specialised, more of them have expected some in the future again.
For the whole retail trade, cash flow situation has been declared as difficult as in March.
Trade and repair of motor vehicles
Still dynamic activity
In trade and repair of motor vehicles, as many managers as in April have indicated an increase in their past sales. The corresponding balance has never been so high since the start of the survey (2003). Their anticipations have remained optimistic: both balances concerning expected sales and ordering intentions have been practically stable at high levels.
graphiquegraph_ventes_ic_auto_en – Recent sales and ordering intentions in motor vehicles
The level of stocks is estimed lower, still under its standard level.
Less managers than over the last surveys have declared rises in prices over the last and over the next few months.
Balances concerning recent and future trends in workforce size have progressed again and stand over their average.
tableautab2_en – Detailed data
| Ave. (1) | Feb. 15 | Mar. 15 | April 15 | May 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail trade - Global data | |||||
| Recent sales | –6 | –5 | –8 | –11 | –15 |
| Expected sales | –1 | 0 | 3 | –2 | 4 |
| Ordering intentions | –7 | –5 | –6 | –4 | –4 |
| Stocks | 10 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –19 | –12 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –13 | –14 | –9 | –13 |
| Cash position (2) | –13 | –18 | –18 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | 1 | 0 | –9 | –3 | –1 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –2 | –7 | –6 | –9 | –6 |
| Non-specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –2 | 10 | 5 | –1 | –5 |
| Expected sales | 5 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 17 |
| Ordering intentions | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
| Stocks | 7 | 6 | 13 | –9 | –9 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –25 | –10 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –11 | –13 | –10 | –14 |
| Cash position (2) | –7 | –9 | –11 | ||
| Specialised retail trade | |||||
| Recent sales | –11 | –21 | –25 | –23 | –26 |
| Expected sales | –8 | –16 | –15 | –13 | –11 |
| Ordering intentions | –17 | –15 | –18 | –20 | –21 |
| Stocks | 14 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| Past selling prices (2) | –8 | –15 | –17 | ||
| Expected selling prices | –5 | –16 | –14 | –9 | –12 |
| Cash position (2) | –22 | –28 | –26 | ||
| Trade and repair of motor cars and motorcycles | |||||
| Recent sales | –11 | –1 | 2 | 18 | 18 |
| Expected sales | –9 | –6 | 11 | 7 | 8 |
| Ordering intentions | –13 | –5 | 6 | 10 | 8 |
| Stocks | 15 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| Past selling prices (2) | 1 | 7 | 4 | ||
| Expected selling prices | 4 | –3 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| Cash position (2) | –25 | –17 | –15 | ||
| Workforce size: recent trend | –10 | –10 | –7 | –4 | 1 |
| Workforce size: future trend | –8 | –6 | –2 | –1 | 0 |
- (1) Average since 1991 (2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles and 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions).
- (2) Bi-monthly question (odd-numbered months).
- Source: monthly survey in the retail trade and in the trade and repair of motor vehicles - INSEE
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,129 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
