22 July 2015
2015- n° 181In July 2015, the economic climate remains deteriorated in the building construction
industry Monthly survey of building - July 2015
According to the business managers surveyed in July 2015, the business climate stays deteriorated in the building construction industry. The composite indicator has lost one point and is below (90) its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator has decreased albeit remaining in the favorable zone.
According to the business managers surveyed in July 2015, the business climate stays deteriorated in the building construction industry. The composite indicator has lost one point and is below (90) its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator has decreased albeit remaining in the favorable zone.
General business outlook is less grim than in the last quarter
In July 2015, fewer business managers than in the previous month forecast a fall in their activity for the next three months again. On the contrary, more business managers than in June declared a fall in their activity over the past three months. The corresponding balances of opinion remain far below their long-term average. The balance of opinion on general business outlook has continued to pick up strongly compared to past quarters, but it stays below its long-term average.
graphiqueActivity – Activity tendency in building construction
More business manager are pessimistic about employment
In July 2015, more business managers than in June indicate a fall in their staff size in the recent period and for the next few months. The corresponding balances remain substantially below their long-term average.
graphiqueWorkforce – Workforce size tendency in building construction
graphiqueClimate – Business climate composite indicator
graphiqueTurningPoint – Turning-point indicator
- Lecture: close to 1 (respectively -1), it indicates a favorable climate (respectively unfavorable).
tableauTableau1 – Building industry economic outlook
| Mean* | April 15 | May 15 | June 15 | July 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 89 | 89 | 91 | 90 |
| Past activity | –4 | –19 | –17 | –17 | –26 |
| Expected activity | –6 | –20 | –25 | –20 | –15 |
| Gen. business outlook | –19 | –36 | –27 | ||
| Past employment | –4 | –33 | –28 | –24 | –28 |
| Expected employment | –4 | –28 | –25 | –19 | –24 |
| Opinion on order books | –23 | –56 | –54 | –56 | –56 |
| Order books (in month) | 5.4 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Production capacity utilisation rate | 88.6 | 83.9 | 83.9 | 84.5 | 85.1 |
| Obstacles to production increase (in %) | 32 | 20 | 17 | 22 | 23 |
| - Because of workforce shortage (in %) | 14.7 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.5 |
| Recruiting problems (in %) | 58 | 38 | 41 | ||
| Expected prices | –14 | –35 | –34 | –32 | –33 |
| Cash-flow position | –10 | –23 | –21 | ||
| Repayment period | 29 | 43 | 43 |
- * Mean since September 1993.
- Source: French business survey in the building industry - INSEE
Order books are still considered lower than normal
Business managers’ opinion about their order books remains deteriorated. The corresponding balance has remained at a very low level since October 2014. However, the number of months covered by these order books is practically stable (6.5 months), above its long term average (5.4 months).
graphiqueOrderBooks – Order books
Production capacity is slightly more used
In July 2015, the production capacity utilisation rate has improved slightly to 85.1% (+0.6 point compared to the last month) but stays below its long-term average. At the same time, almost one business manager out of four has reported difficulties to increase its output, against one out of three in average since 1993. Only 41% of construction firms have difficulties in recruiting labor force, against 58% in average.
graphiquePcur – Production capacity utilisation rate
Many business managers indicate price falls again
In July, almost as many business managers as in June indicate price falls. The corresponding balance remains substantially below its long-term average. However, according to business managers, the cash-flow position is a little less deteriorated than in the previous quarter and the repayment period is stable.
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