In May 2015, the business climate has improved again in the wholesale tradeBi-monthly survey of wholesaling - May 2015

According to the managers surveyed in May 2015, the business climate in the wholesale trade sector has improved again. The corresponding composite indicator has increased by four points since March 2015, and has gone over its long-term average. That level had not been reached since mid-2011.

Informations rapides
No 121
Paru le : 22/05/2015
Prochaine parution le : 24/01/2018 at 08:45 - January 2018

Total wholesale trade

According to the managers surveyed in May 2015, the business climate in the wholesale trade sector has improved again. The corresponding composite indicator has increased by four points since March 2015, and has gone over its long-term average. That level had not been reached since mid-2011.

The turning-point indicator has stayed in the favourable area.

graph_indclimaff_en – Composite indicator

graph_indretournf_en – Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable).

A less grim past activity

Fewer wholesalers than in March have declared a fall in their past sales, to France and abroad. This trend is the same for received merchandises, from France or abroad. Each of the four balances has risen and is near its average from now on.

More optimistic expectations

Concerning their expectations, the managers have been more optimistic: each of the balances concerning ordering intentions, ordering from abroad, shipments abroad and general outlook balance has progressed for three surveys in a row and is now over its mean level.

Better past employment, statu quo of the opinion about expected employment

Slightly less wholesalers than on the last survey have declared a fall in their past workforce. Conversely, the expected workforce balance has been steady for nearly one year, close to its average.

Prices rising but still very low

Each of both balances concerning past and expected prices has significantly increased but has still remained under its average.

tab_cgens_en – Total wholesale trade

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Total wholesale trade
MOY* Nov. 14 Jan. 15 Mar. 15 May 15
Composite indicator 100 96 95 97 101
General outlook –25 –36 –30 –21 –17
Sales –14 –25 –26 –23 –16
export sales –15 –17 –22 –17 –13
Received merchandise –9 –15 –20 –16 –13
received from abroad –10 –12 –14 –14 –11
Ordering intentions –15 –19 –16 –15 –13
ordering from abroad –15 –17 –16 –15 –12
Shipments abroad –16 –21 –17 –12 –8
Current stock 8 5 5 7 6
Past workforce –1 –7 –8 –10 –7
Expected workforce –3 –6 –6 –5 –5
Cash position –10 –7 –8 –5 –4
Past selling prices 8 –20 –13 –10 –2
Expecting selling prices 15 –10 –8 0 7
  • * : average since September 1979
  • Source : French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee

Raw agricultural products and live animals

According to the wholesalers of this sector, past sales to France and abroad have been deened better, just as ordering intentions. Only the balance concerning merchandise received from abroad has slightly declined. Each of the four balances is above its average.

Food products and beverages

In this sector, much fewer managers than on the last survey have declared a fall of their past activity. Foreign activity, export or import, has been estimed less grim too. The ordering intentions balance is stable over its mean level.

Household goods

In the household good sector, the past sales balance has increased but this increase might not go on, considering the stability in ordering intentions. However, each of both balances is above its average.

Capital goods in information and communication

More wholesalers in this sector have estimed that recent sales and ordering intentions have progressed. Each of both balances has remained above its average. Concerning foreign trade, the managers have been less pessimistic.

Other industrial capital goods

In industrial capital goods sector, fewer wholesalers than in March have noted a decline in their past activity, but the balance has remained low. Their opinion has improved for ordering intentions and the balance has reached its average. Wholesalers have been more optimistic too about exports and imports.

Other specialised wholesale trade

In this sector, the past sales balance has remained low for one year. However, wholesalers have been less pessimistic concerning their exports. Ordering intentions have stayed grim, with a balance under its average.

graph_sect_en – Past activity (sales) in capital goods

tab_cgsect_en – Wholesale trade sectors

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Wholesale trade sectors
MOY* Nov. 14 Jan. 15 Mar. 15 May 15
Raw agricultural products and live animals
Sales –11 –6 –1 –9 –4
Export sales –15 –3 14 –6 3
Merchandise received from abroad –9 –12 4 0 –3
Ordering intentions –12 –8 –7 –5 –2
Current stock 5 7 3 0 –4
Food products and beverages
Sales –15 –16 –24 –25 –11
Export sales –12 –24 –31 –27 –13
Merchandise received from abroad –13 –4 –17 –20 –5
Ordering intentions –11 –18 –12 –7 –7
Current stock 5 3 –1 –1 1
Household goods
Sales –10 –21 –22 –7 –3
Export sales –12 –17 –22 –3 –13
Merchandise received from abroad –6 –4 –8 –9 –8
Ordering intentions –14 –12 –8 –11 –11
Current stock 12 6 6 13 12
Capital goods in information and communication
Sales –9 –10 –13 –8 2
Export sales –13 –13 –29 –24 –23
Merchandise received from abroad –7 –9 –9 –22 –12
Ordering intentions –10 –13 –10 –2 1
Current stock 8 –3 4 5 10
Other industrial capital goods
Sales –16 –39 –34 –33 –29
Export sales –21 –25 –33 –17 –14
Merchandise received from abroad –11 –17 –13 –21 –18
Ordering intentions –22 –28 –35 –33 –22
Current stock 12 14 14 11 5
Other specialized wholesale trade
Sales –18 –42 –41 –42 –38
Export sales –19 –14 –25 –26 –22
Merchandise received from abroad –13 –22 –25 –15 –20
Ordering intentions –19 –26 –22 –24 –25
Current stock 6 3 –1 9 9
  • * : average since September 1979
  • Source: French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee