23 April 2015
2015- n° 92In April 2015, the business climate in manufacturing industry has improved Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - April 2015
According to the business managers surveyed in April 2015, the business climate in industry has improved: the composite indicator which measures it has increased by two points and remains at a level (101) slightly above to its long-term average (100).
Manufacturing industry
According to the business managers surveyed in April 2015, the business climate in industry has improved: the composite indicator which measures it has increased by two points and remains at a level (101) slightly above to its long-term average (100).
graphiqueGraphang1 – Industrial economic climate - Composite indicator
The turning-point indicator has increased and remains in the zone indicating a favourable short-term economic situation.
graphiqueGraphang2 – Turning-point indicator
The balance of opinion on past change in production has bounced back and it is close to its long term average. The balance of opinion on personal production expectations has decreased but stays at a level that is above its long term average.
Both global order books and export order books have improved compared to March: for the first one, the corresponding balance is equal to its long term average; for the second one, it is above it and it has reached its highest level since July 2011.
The balance on general production expectations, which represents business managers’ opinion on French industry as a whole, continued to rise in March. It has increased by 3 points and is clearly above its long term average, reaching its highest level since July 2011.
Finally, less industrialists judge that stocks of finished products inferior to normal, but the corresponding balance stays at a level below its average.
tableautableau1 – Industrialists 'opinion on manufacturing industrial activity
| Manufacturing industry | Aver.* | Jan. 15 | Feb. 15 | March 15 | April 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 100 | 100 | 99 | 101 |
| Past activity | 4 | –2 | 0 | –10 | 3 |
| Finished-goods inventory | 13 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Global order books | –18 | –21 | –25 | –20 | –18 |
| Export order books | –14 | –15 | –15 | –12 | –8 |
| Personal production expectations | 5 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 6 |
| General production expectations | –9 | –10 | –8 | 0 | 3 |
- * Long term average since 1976.
- Source: Monthly business survey - INSEE
Sector-based analysis
MAN. OF FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES
In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balance on past activity has increased but remains lower than its long term average. The balance on expected activity has stabilized above its long term mean. The balance on stocks of finished products has climbed at a level bigger than normal. Global and export order books have risen and are higher than their long term average.
MACHINENERY AND EQUIPMENT GOODS
In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, industrialists judge that their past activity has improved compare to March but stays inferior to normal. The balance of opinion on production expectations has also increased but has reached a lower level than its long term average. The balance of opinion on stocks of finished products has grown again and remains higher to its average level. The global and foreign demands are stable below their normal level according to the industrialists of this sector.
MAN. OF TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT
Man. of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers
In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balance on past activity keeps soaring. It is at a level significantly higher than normal. The production prospects has bounced back and the corresponding balance has reached a level significantly higher than it long term average. Global and export order books has improved: the corresponding balances of opinion are still considered higher than normal. The balance of stocks of finished goods has grown up but remains below its normal level.
Man. of other transport equipment
In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balance of opinion on past activity has decreased and gets away slowly from its long term average. The balance of opinion on expected activity is nearly stable to a level higher than its long term average. The balance of opinion on stocks of finished products has still increased but has reached a point below its normal level. The global order books have improved and the corresponding balance of opinion is above its long term average.
OTHER MANUFACTURING
In “other manufacturing”, the business managers’ balance of opinion on their past activity has improved in all sectors, excepted the manufacture of chemical products where it has declined since January. The balance of opinion on expected activity has plunged in the manufacture of chemical products, has became inferior to its long term average in that of rubber and plastic products and in that of pharmaceutical products and has stagnated in that of basic metals. The levels of global and export order books have slightly declined in the manufacture of rubber and plastic products and in that of pharmaceutical products, have moderately gone up in that of chemical products and have improved in that of basic metals where the corresponding balances have exceeded their long term average. At last, finished-goods inventories have evolved a little in all sectors.
tableautableau2 – Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach
| NA*: (A17) et [A 38 et A 64] | Aver.** | Feb. 15 | March 15 | April 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (C1) Man. of goods products and beverages | ||||
| Past activity | 6 | 14 | –4 | 1 |
| Finished-goods inventory | 12 | 8 | 12 | 16 |
| Global order books | –18 | –17 | –15 | –12 |
| Export order books | –13 | –14 | –8 | –5 |
| Personal production expectations | 7 | –3 | 10 | 10 |
| (C3) Machinery and equipment goods | ||||
| Past activity | 4 | –2 | –17 | –5 |
| Finished-goods inventory | 17 | 14 | 19 | 21 |
| Global order books | –24 | –35 | –33 | –32 |
| Export order books | –21 | –29 | –25 | –23 |
| Personal production expectations | 2 | –8 | –9 | –1 |
| (C4) Man. of transport equipment | ||||
| Past activity | 8 | –5 | 15 | 39 |
| Finished-goods inventory | 14 | –12 | –4 | 11 |
| Global order books | –14 | –16 | 5 | 9 |
| Export order books | –12 | –19 | –14 | –10 |
| Personal production expectations | 8 | 48 | 38 | 34 |
| Man. of motor vehicules, trailers and semi-trailers [CL1] | ||||
| Past activity | 3 | –24 | 19 | 56 |
| Finished-goods inventory | 10 | –24 | –14 | 9 |
| Global order books | –20 | –23 | 5 | 10 |
| Export order books | –14 | –4 | 4 | 11 |
| Personal production expectations | 3 | 61 | 2 | 42 |
| Man. of other transport equipment [CL2] | ||||
| Past activity | 15 | 18 | 14 | 11 |
| Finished-goods inventory | 20 | 5 | 9 | 15 |
| Global order books | –5 | –7 | 4 | 8 |
| Export order books | –10 | –35 | –33 | –31 |
| Personal production expectations | 15 | 42 | 44 | 42 |
| (C5) Other manufacturing | ||||
| Past activity | 1 | 6 | –8 | 0 |
| Finished-goods inventory | 10 | 6 | 9 | 8 |
| Global order books | –20 | –24 | –24 | –24 |
| Export order books | –13 | –7 | –5 | –2 |
| Personal production expectations | 4 | 2 | 7 | –3 |
| Man. of chemicals and chemical products [CE] | ||||
| Past activity | 5 | 8 | –1 | –4 |
| Finished-goods inventory | 7 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| Global order books | –13 | –14 | –20 | –19 |
| Export order books | –8 | –4 | –2 | –1 |
| Personal production expectations | 13 | 6 | 0 | –10 |
| Man. of basic pharmaceutical products [CF] | ||||
| Past activity | 16 | 49 | –32 | 12 |
| Finished-goods inventory | 9 | –37 | 3 | 5 |
| Global order books | 3 | 0 | 0 | –1 |
| Export order books | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Personal production expectations | 15 | 6 | 47 | –41 |
| Man. of rubber and plastics products [CG] | ||||
| Past activity | –3 | –18 | –14 | –5 |
| Finished-goods inventory | 11 | 7 | 20 | 18 |
| Global order books | –25 | –48 | –40 | –43 |
| Export order books | –18 | –16 | –18 | –22 |
| Personal production expectations | –1 | 6 | 4 | –4 |
| Man. of basic metals and fabricated metal products [CH] | ||||
| Past activity | –1 | 9 | 6 | 8 |
| Finished-goods inventory | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 |
| Global order books | –20 | –26 | –24 | –15 |
| Export order books | –16 | –7 | –2 | 12 |
| Personal production expectations | 1 | –9 | 5 | 5 |
- * NA: agragated manufacture, based on the NAF rév.2. The describe of the NA is available in the web-page of this indicator.
- ** Long-term average since 1976.
- Source: INSEE - Monthly business survey
Documentation
Methodology (pdf,133 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Industry - Activity and demand
