In Q1 2015, French GDP increased strongly: +0.6% after 0.0%Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - 1st quarter 2015

In Q1 2015, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.6%, after a stability in Q4 2014.

Informations rapides
No 113
Paru le : 13/05/2015
Prochaine parution le : 29/11/2017 at 08:45 - third quarter 2017

In Q1 2015, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.6%, after a stability in Q4 2014.

In the three first months of 2015, household consumption expenditure accelerated (+0.8% after +0.1%) while total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) decreased again (–0.2% after –0.4%). Overall, total domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) increased: it contributed for +0.5 points to GDP growth (after +0.1 points in Q4 2014).

Exports slowed (+0.9% after +2.5%) while imports accelerated (+2.3% after 1.5%). In fine, the foreign trade balance contributed negatively to activity (–0.5 points after +0.2 points in the previous quarter). Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively: +0.5 points after –0.3 points at the end of 2014.

Total production improved significantly

In Q1 2015, production in goods and services rose by 0.7% after a stagnation at the end of 2014. Output in the manufactured goods accelerated significantly (+1.3% after +0.1%), mainly output of transport equipment (+5.6% after –2.4%). Energy production also bounced back. Production in market services accelerated more moderately (+0.6% after +0.3%). By contrast, activity in construction declined sharply again ( –1.0% after –0.9%).

Household consumption accelerated strongly

In Q1 2015, household consumption expenditure accelerated (+0.8% after +0.1%). In particular, expenditure on energy recovered sharply after exceptionally soft weather conditions in Q4 2014. Consumption in engineered goods also accelerated (+1.4% after +0.5%) thanks to consumption of automobile. Finally, consumption in services remained sluggish (+0.3% after +0.1%).

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Graph1 – GDP and its main components

Tab1 – Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes
2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2014 2015 (ovhg)
GDP -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.7
Imports 0.9 1.8 1.5 2.3 3.9 4.6
Household consumption *expenditure 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.6 1.2
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.5 1.1
GFCF -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -1.2 -0.9
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.2 2.0 0.2
Households -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.4 -5.3 -3.2
General government -2.8 -2.1 -0.3 0.3 -6.9 -1.7
Exports 0.2 0.9 2.5 0.9 2.4 3.2
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7
Inventory changes -0.1 0.3 -0.3 0.5 0.2 0.5
Net foreign trade -0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5

    Tab2 – Sectoral accounts

    percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
    Sectoral accounts
    2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2014 2015 (ovhg)
    Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 29.2 29.4 29.7   29.5  
    Household purchasing power 0.4 0.6 0.0   1.1 0.4
    • *NFC: non-financial corporations

    Tab3 – Production, Consumption and GFCF: main components

    percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
    Production, Consumption and GFCF: main components
    2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2014 2015 (ovhg)
    Production of branches 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.9
    Goods -0.2 0.8 -0.3 1.5 0.1 1.6
    Manufactured Industry -0.6 0.6 0.1 1.3 0.3 1.5
    Construction -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -2.2 -2.5
    Market services 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.1
    Non-market services 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.3 0.8
    Household consumption 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.6 1.2
    Food products 0.7 -0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4
    Energy 1.9 1.0 -1.7 3.9 -5.7 3.6
    Engineered goods -0.1 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.9 1.9
    Services 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5
    GFCF -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -1.2 -0.9
    Manufactured goods -0.1 0.2 -0.3 1.2 1.3 1.1
    Construction -1.5 -1.3 -0.9 -1.3 -3.4 -3.0
    Market services 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7

      Tab4 – Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

      percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
      Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
      2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2014 2015 (ovhg)
      HDI 0.3 0.5 0.0   1.1 0.3
      Household purchasing power 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.1 0.4
      HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.3 0.5 -0.1 0.7 0.3
      Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.3 0.5
      Saving rate (level) 15.0 15.2 15.1 15.1  
      Financial saving rate (level) 6.0 6.2 6.2   6.0  
      • *cu: consumption unit

      Tab5 – Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account

      level (in percent), WDA-SA data
      Ratios of non-financial corporations’ account
      2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2014
      Profit share 29.2 29.4 29.7   29.5
      Investment ratio 23.2 23.2 22.9   23.1
      Savings ratio 17.1 17.4 18.2   17.4
      Self-financing ratio 73.8 75.0 79.4   75.2

        Tab6 – Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

        level, WDA-SA data
        Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
        2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2014
        In billions of euros      
        Total expenditure 305.7 307.2 308.2   1226.5
        Total receipts 284.3 285.5 286.5   1141.7
        Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -21.4 -21.8 -21.7   -84.9
        In % of GDP      
        Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -4.0 -4.1 -4.0   -4.0

          Investment declined again

          Households’ GFCF decreased again (–1.4% after –1.1%) while enterprises’ improved barely (+0.2% after –0.1%). Product-wise, the decline of construction investment deepened (–1.3% after –0.9%) while investment in manufactured goods (+1.2% after –0.3%) and in market services (+1.5% after +0.1%) accelerated.

          Exports slowed, imports accelerated

          In Q1 2015, exports slowed (+0.9% after +2.5%), especially in manufactured goods (+1.0% after +3.1%). The slowdown resulted notably from transport equipment (–0.9% after +11.1%). At the same time, imports accelerated sharply (+2.3% after +1.5%), mainly in energy and transportation equipment. Thus, foreign trade weighed down on GDP change this quarter: –0.5 points to GDP after +0.2 points.

          Changes in inventories contributed positively to the activity

          In Q1 2015, changes in inventories contributed positively to GDP growth: +0.5 points after –0.3 points in Q4 2014. Transport equipment contributed for +0.4 points of GDP, thus overcompensating the contribution of the trade balance of these goods (–0.3 points).

          Revisions

          Revisions are larger this quarter than on previous publications, but their extent are typical of a first quarter. They come from new benchmarking due to revised annual accounts for years 2012 to 2014 and to updates of seasonal and working day adjustments. In Q3 and Q4 2014, the growth rate of GDP is slightly decreased by 0.1 points each quarter.

          Documentation

          Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)