27 October 2015
2015- n° 261Improvement in demand for new dwellings since early this year has stopped in October
according developers Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - October 2015
In October 2015, the balance of opinion on new dwelling demand has slightly folded after a sharp improvement since the beginning of the year. The balance has been located below its long-term average since five years.
Expected demand for new dwellings has slightly fallen back
In October 2015, the balance of opinion on new dwelling demand has slightly folded after a sharp improvement since the beginning of the year. The balance has been located below its long-term average since five years.
Expected housing starts has faltered
In the same way, in October 2015, balance of opinion on expected housing starts for the next three months has fallen back – slightly for housing for sale, more sharply for housing for rent – after having recovered significantly since early this year. Almost as many developers as in July indicate a fall of unsold dwelling stocks. The balance of opinion stays above its long-term average.
Fewer developers have indicated a price decline again
Fewer developers than in July indicate a fall in average prices of new dwellings; the corresponding balance of opinion has increased gradually since one year but it's still below its long-term average. A few more developers than in the previous month consider that downpayment to acquire a new dwelling has decreased; the corresponding balance return to its long-term average. Fewer developers than the previous quarter deem that the financing capacity to purchase new housing will fall over the next quarter and the corresponding balance has come back above its long-term average.
tableautableau1 – Real-estate development economic outlook
| Mean* | Jan. 15 | April 15 | July 15 | Oct. 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | –9 | –50 | –34 | –25 | –27 |
| Expected housing starts | –7 | –30 | –17 | –10 | –14 |
| - for sale | –16 | –37 | –21 | –14 | –17 |
| - for rent | 0 | –16 | –13 | 1 | –6 |
| Unsold dwelling stock tendency | –27 | –15 | –27 | –25 | –24 |
| Housing average price for sale | 5 | –31 | –29 | –22 | –14 |
| Downpayment | –21 | –35 | –25 | –19 | –21 |
| Financing capacity | –23 | –41 | –21 | –24 | –13 |
- * Mean since July 1991.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
graphiqueDemand – New dwelling demand tendency
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