22 October 2015
2015- n° 256In October 2015, the short-term economic climate remains deteriorated in the building
construction industry Monthly survey of building - October 2015
According to the business managers surveyed in October 2015, the business climate is virtually stable in the building construction industry. The composite indicator which measures it has decreased by one point and remains significantly below (90) its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator has moved into the neutral zone.
According to the business managers surveyed in October 2015, the business climate is virtually stable in the building construction industry. The composite indicator which measures it has decreased by one point and remains significantly below (90) its long-term average (100). The turning point indicator has moved into the neutral zone.
graphiqueClimate – Business climate composite indicator
graphiqueTurningPoint – Turning-point indicator
- Lecture: close to 1 (respectively -1), it indicates a favorable climate (respectively unfavorable).
tableauTableau1 – Building industry economic outlook
| Mean* | July 15 | Aug. 15 | Sept. 15 | Oct. 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 90 | 91 | 91 | 90 |
| Past activity | –4 | –24 | –22 | –24 | –17 |
| Expected activity | –7 | –14 | –11 | –13 | –20 |
| Gen. business outlook | –19 | –27 | –24 | ||
| Past employment | –5 | –28 | –26 | –26 | –31 |
| Expected employment | –4 | –22 | –24 | –21 | –24 |
| Opinion on order books | –23 | –55 | –53 | –52 | –53 |
| Order books (in month) | 5,4 | 6,5 | 6,6 | 6,6 | 6,5 |
| Production capacity utilisation rate | 88,6 | 85,0 | 84,7 | 84,4 | 84,5 |
| Obstacles to production increase (in %) | 32 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 20 |
| - Because of workforce shortage (in %) | 14,5 | 3,4 | 2,9 | 2,6 | 2,8 |
| Recruiting problems (in %) | 58 | 40 | 41 | ||
| Expected prices | –14 | –32 | –29 | –29 | –33 |
| Cash-flow position | –10 | –20 | –12 | ||
| Repayment period | 29 | 42 | 39 |
- * Mean since September 1993.
More business managers forecast a fall in their activity
In October 2015, slightly fewer business managers than in the previous month have declared a fall in their activity in the recent period. Their opinion on general business outlook has continued to improved compared to the past quarters. However, more business managers than in September forecast a fall in their activity for the next three months.
The three corresponding balances are far below their long-term average.
graphiqueActivity – Activity tendency in building construction
Increased pessimism about employment
In October 2015, more business managers than in September have indicated a fall in their staff size in the recent period and for the next few months. The corresponding balances, already below their long-term average, have deviated further from their long term average.
graphiqueWorkforce – Workforce size tendency in building construction
Order books are considered far below normal
Business managers' opinion about their order books remains very negative. The corresponding balance has been very low for more than a year now. Considering their workforce, they evalue that their order books cover 6.5 months of work.
graphiqueOrderBooks – Order books
Production capacity remains underused
Since 2008, the production capacity utilisation rate has been below its long-term average. In October 2015, it is virtually stable compared to the previous month (84.5%). One business manager out of five has reported difficulties in increasing output, against one out of three in average since 1993. Only 41% of construction firms have difficulties in recruiting labor force, against 58% in average.
graphiquePcur – Production capacity utilisation rate
More price cuts have been declared
In October 2015, more business managers than in September have indicated price falls. The corresponding balance remains substantially below its long-term average. However, according to business managers, the cash-flow position is less deteriorated than in the previous quarter and the repayment period is reduced slightly.
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