In November 2015, the business climate in manufacturing is virtually stable above its long-term averageMonthly business survey (goods-producing industries) - November 2015

Warning: the results of this survey take into account answers until 19 November inclusive. The large majority of responses were registered before the attacks of 13 November.

Informations rapides
No 281
Paru le : 24/11/2015
Prochaine parution le : 21/12/2017 at 08:45 - December 2017

Warning: the results of this survey take into account answers until 19 November inclusive. The large majority of responses were registered before the attacks of 13 November.

According to the business managers surveyed in November 2015, the business climate in industry is virtually stable (–1 point) at a level (102) above its long-term average (100).

Graphang1 – Business climate in industry - Composite indicator

The turning-point indicator remains in the zone indicating a short-term economic uncertainty.

Graphang2 – Turning-point indicator

In November 2015, the balance of opinion on past activity, already above its long-term average, has risen slightly (+2 points). That on personal production expectations has plummeted (–8 points) and has returned to a level close to its mean.

Industrialists are much more optimistic than in October on general production expectations of the sector (+8 points). The corresponding balance is at its highest level since June 2011, significantly above its long-term average.

In November, global and export order books have slightly worsened; the corresponding balances of opinion stand at their long-term mean.

Finally, almost as many industrialists as in October judge that stocks of finished products are above normal, the corresponding balance is once again slightly inferior to its long-term average.

tableau1 – Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing activity

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion on manufacturing activity
Manufacturing industry Ave.* Aug. 15 Sept. 15 Oct. 15 Nov. 15
Composite indicator 100 103 104 103 102
Past activity 4 5 11 8 10
Finished-goods inventory 13 14 15 10 11
Global order books –18 –12 –15 –15 –18
Export order books –14 –9 –10 –13 –14
Personal production expectations 5 10 14 12 4
General production expectations –9 4 5 2 10
  • * Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: Monthly business survey - INSEE

Sector-based analysis

MAN. OF FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES

In the manufacture of food products and beverages, the balances on past activity and production prospects have deteriorated albeit remaining above their long-term average. Global and export order books, already above normal in October, have improved a little more. The balance on stocks of finished products is stable at a level slightly beyond its mean level.

MACHINENERY AND EQUIPMENT GOODS

In the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods, the balance on past activity has continued to increase but remains lower than its long-term average. That on production expectations is virtually stable slightly above normal. The balance on stocks of finished products has increased a little and stays close to its mean level. Global and export order books have improved and are close to their normal level.

MAN. OF TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT

Man. of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers

In the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi trailers, the balance on past activity has bounced far above its long-term average. That on production prospects has declined but stays significantly higher than its mean level. Global and export order books have deteriorated albeit remaining above their mean. The balance on stocks of finished goods has edged up; however, it is inferior to its long-term average for the third month in a row.

Man. of other transport equipment

In the manufacture of other transport equipment, the balance on past activity has picked up and has reached a level slightly above its long-term average. The production prospects balance, already significantly above normal in October, has improved. The balance of opinion on stocks of finished products is virtually stable above its long-term level. Global and export order books have been slightly filled out and are considerably above the long-term average.

OTHER MANUFACTURING

In “other manufacturing”, the balance of opinion on past activity and that on production prospects has slightly declined and stand at a level close to their long-term mean. On a sub-sector level, the balance on past activity has fallen in chemicals and pharmaceuticals while it has increased in the manufacture of plastic products and in that of basic metals. The balance on expected activity has plunged in the manufacture of pharmaceuticals and in that of chemicals, while it is virtually stable in that of basic metals and has improved in that of plastic products. Global order books are virtually stable in the manufacture of pharmaceuticals and in that of plastic products while they have diminished in that of basic metals and in that of chemicals; as for export order books, they have deteriorated in all sectors, except in pharmaceuticals where they are virtually stable. Finally, stocks of finished goods are considered lower in the manufacture of chemicals and are stable in the other sectors; the corresponding balances are below their long-term average.

tableau2 – Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach

Balance of opinion, in %
Industrialists' opinion in a sector-based approach
NA* : (A17) et [A 38 et A 64] Aver.** Sept. 15 Oct. 15 Nov. 15
(C1) Man. of goods products and beverages
Past activity 6 13 14 9
Finished-goods inventory 12 13 14 14
Global order books –18 –16 –13 –10
Export order books –13 –2 –5 –4
Personal production expectations 7 12 13 9
(C3) Machinery and equipment goods
Past activity 4 –16 –8 –5
Finished-goods inventory 17 17 16 19
Global order books –24 –33 –30 –25
Export order books –22 –32 –27 –24
Personal production expectations 2 7 6 5
(C4) Man. of transport equipment
Past activity 8 11 7 36
Finished-goods inventory 14 25 24 25
Global order books –14 18 17 11
Export order books –12 2 –6 –2
Personal production expectations 8 51 40 40
Man. of motor vehicules, trailers and semi-trailers [CL1]
Past activity 3 5 7 42
Finished-goods inventory 10 7 3 6
Global order books –20 11 11 –3
Export order books –14 10 –6 –8
Personal production expectations 3 63 47 41
Man. of other transport equipment [CL2]
Past activity 15 –2 –7 19
Finished-goods inventory 21 43 46 44
Global order books –5 26 23 26
Export order books –10 –5 –6 3
Personal production expectations 15 47 34 45
(C5) Other manufacturing
Past activity 1 11 5 3
Finished-goods inventory 10 10 6 3
Global order books –20 –22 –27 –29
Export order books –13 –7 –12 –17
Personal production expectations 4 7 5 3
Man. of chemicals and chemical products [CE]
Past activity 5 16 22 10
Finished-goods inventory 6 2 6 –5
Global order books –13 –10 –19 –25
Export order books –8 –3 –14 –19
Personal production expectations 13 9 15 –2
Man. of basic pharmaceutical products [CF]
Past activity 16 64 67 34
Finished-goods inventory 9 5 6 6
Global order books 3 –1 –2 0
Export order books 10 3 –1 1
Personal production expectations 15 46 24 –15
Man. of rubber and plastic products [CG]
Past activity –3 –7 –15 –8
Finished-goods inventory 11 11 9 9
Global order books –26 –40 –49 –45
Export order books –18 –9 –20 –33
Personal production expectations –1 7 5 10
Man. of basic metals and fabricated metal products [CH]
Past activity 0 –2 –2 7
Finished-goods inventory 7 16 5 4
Global order books –20 –19 –25 –34
Export order books –15 –8 –14 –25
Personal production expectations 1 7 –2 –3
  • * NA: aggregated classification, based on the NAF rév.2.
  • ** Long-term average since 1976.
  • Source: INSEE - Monthly business survey