27 January 2015
2015- n° 18In January 2015, the demand for new dwellings remains low Quaterly business survey in the real-estate development - January 2015
In January 2015, slightly fewer developers than in October 2014 indicate a decrease in the demand for new housing. The corresponding balance of opinion, which reached its lowest level in the last quarter, is still significantly below its long-term average. Expected housing starts stay gloomy for the next three months. They have improved slightly for new dwelling for sale but they have deteriorated again for rental housing.
Low demand for new dwellings
In January 2015, slightly fewer developers than in October 2014 indicate a decrease in the demand for new housing. The corresponding balance of opinion, which reached its lowest level in the last quarter, is still significantly below its long-term average. Expected housing starts stay gloomy for the next three months. They have improved slightly for new dwelling for sale but they have deteriorated again for rental housing.
Unsold dwelling stock remains high
As many developers as in October indicate a rise of unsold dwelling stock. The balance of opinion is sharply above its long-term average.
Developers are less pessimistic about the downpayment to acquire a new dwelling
Even if slightly fewer developers than in October indicate a fall in average prices of new housing, the corresponding balance of opinion is still significantly below its long-term average. Slightly fewer developers than in October concider that downpayment to acquire a new dwelling has decreased. In contrast, slightly more developers than the previous quarter deem that the financing capacity to purchase a new housing will fall off during the next quarter.
tableautableau1 – Real-estate development economic outlook
| Mean* | April 14 | July 14 | Oct. 14 | Jan. 15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New dwelling demand | –8 | –43 | –51 | –54 | –49 |
| Expected housing starts | –7 | –22 | –34 | –33 | –32 |
| - for sale | –15 | –35 | –42 | –44 | –38 |
| - for rent | 0 | –6 | –15 | –13 | –19 |
| Unsold dwelling stock tendency | –27 | –13 | –10 | –14 | –14 |
| Housing average price for sale | 5 | –22 | –31 | –32 | –30 |
| Downpayment | –21 | –39 | –46 | –41 | –35 |
| Financing capacity | –23 | –47 | –41 | –39 | –42 |
- * Mean since July 1991.
- Source: French business survey on real-estate development - INSEE
graphiqueDemand – New dwelling demand tendency
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