In Q3 2015, GDP increased by 0.3%Quarterly national accounts - second estimate - 3rd Quarter 2015

In Q3 2015, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.3%, after a stability in Q2 2015 (0.0%).

Publications for experts
Informations rapides – No 275
Paru le : 11/13/2015
Prochaine parution le : 02/28/2017 at 08:45 - fourth quarter 2016

In Q3 2015, GDP in volume terms* increased by 0.3%, after a stability in Q2 2015 (0.0%).

Household consumption expenditure recovered (+0.3% after 0.0%). Non-financial enterprises' GFCF accelerated slightly (+0.7% after +0.5%) and that of households declined less than in Q2 (-0.5% after –1.1%). Overall, total domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) accelerated: it contributed for +0.3 points to GDP growth after +0.1 points in Q2. Exports fell back (–0.6% after +1.9%) while imports sped up (+1.7% after +0.5%). In fine, foreign trade balance contributed negatively to GDP change (–0.7 points after +0.4 points in the last quarter). Conversely, changes in inventories contributed positively (+0.7 points after –0.4 points).

Total production recovered

Production in goods and services picked up in Q3 (+0.4%), after a virtual stability in Q2 (–0.1%). Output in manufactured goods bounced back (+0.3% after –0.6%), particularly in coke and refined petroleum branch that dropped in Q2 because of the temporary shutdown of refineries. Production in market services accelerated slightly (+0.6% after +0.3%). By contrast, activity in construction kept on declining (–0.8% after –0.9%).

Household consumption increased again

In Q3 2015, household consumption expenditure recovered (+0.3% after 0.0%). Expenditure on energy rebounded (+1.6% after –2.1%), especially in gas and electricity. Consumption of automobiles levelled off, after having increased during the last two quarters. Consumption of services still increased moderately (+0.2% as in the previous quarter).

* This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.

Graph1 – GDP and its main components

  • Source: Insee

Tab1 – Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes

percentage change from previous period,working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Goods and services:supply and uses chain-linked volumes
2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2014 2015 (ovhg)
GDP 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.1
Imports 1.8 1.9 0.5 1.7 3.9 5.5
Household consumption *expenditure 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4
General government's *consumption expenditure 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.5
GFCF -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -1.2 -0.4
*of which Non-financial corporated and unincorporated enterprises 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.7 2.0 1.8
Households -0.4 -0.8 -1.1 -0.5 -5.3 -3.0
General government -1.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.0 -6.9 -3.9
Exports 2.7 1.5 1.9 -0.6 2.4 5.3
Contributions :        
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1
Inventory changes -0.3 0.3 -0.4 0.7 0.2 0.2
Net foreign trade 0.2 -0.2 0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2
  • Source: Insee

Tab2 – Sectoral accounts

percentage change from previous period.working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Sectoral accounts
2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2014 2015 (ovhg)
Profit ratio of NFC* (level) 29.7 31.1 31.0   29.5  
Household purchasing power 0.0 1.1 -0.2   1.1 1.3
  • *NFC: non-financial corporations
  • Source: Insee

Tab3 – Production. consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period.working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production. consumption and GFCF: main components
2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2014 2015 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2
Goods -0.5 1.5 -0.7 0.2 0.1 1.1
Manufactured Industry -0.1 1.3 -0.6 0.3 0.3 1.2
Construction -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 -2.2 -2.9
Market services 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9
Non-market services 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.2
Household consumption 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4
Food products 0.3 0.2 0.8 -0.2 0.2 1.0
Energy -1.6 3.9 -2.1 1.6 -5.7 2.6
Engineered goods 0.7 1.7 -0.1 1.0 1.8 2.8
Services 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8
GFCF -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -1.2 -0.4
Manufactured goods -0.5 1.0 -0.1 0.8 1.3 1.1
Construction -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.8 -3.4 -3.2
Market services 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.4 2.7
  • Source: Insee

Tab4 – Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account

percentage change from previous period.working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households' disposable income and ratios of households' account
2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2014 2015 (ovhg)
HDI -0.1 1.0 0.2   1.1 1.4
Household purchasing power 0.0 1.1 -0.2 1.1 1.3
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) -0.1 1.0 -0.3 0.7 1.0
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.1 0.9 -0.1 1.3 1.3
Saving rate (level) 15.0 15.3 15.1 15.1  
Financial saving rate (level) 6.0 6.4 6.3   6.0  
  • *cu: consumption unit
  • Source: Insee

Tab5 – Ratios of non-financial corporations' account

level (in percent). data WDA-SA
Ratios of non-financial corporations' account
2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2014
Profit share 29.7 31.1 31.0   29.5
Investment ratio 23.0 22.8 23.0   23.1
Savings ratio 18.3 19.2 19.4   17.4
Self-financing ratio 79.4 84.0 84.4   75.2
  • Source: Insee

Tab6 – Expenditure. receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level. data WDA-SA
Expenditure. receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2014
In billions of euros      
Total expenditure 307.5 309.7 311.5   1226.9
Total receipts 286.9 289.9 290.5   1142.6
Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -20.6 -19.8 -21.0   -84.3
In % of GDP      
Net lending (+) or borrowing (-) -3.8 -3.6 -3.9   -3.9
  • Source: Insee

Investment was virtually stable

In Q3 2015 like in Q2, total GFCF was almost stable (+0.1% after –0.1%). Investment in manufactured goods bounced back (+0.8% after –0.1%): investment in transport equipment recovered (+0.3% after –1.8%), and investment in equipment goods accelerated (+1.9% after +1.5%). Investment in market services kept on increasing (+0.9% after +1.0%). By contrast, investment in construction decreased again, albeit somewhat less than in the previous quarter (–0.8% after –1.0%).

Non-financial enterprises' GFCF accelerated slightly (+0.7% after +0.5%). Households' one declined more moderately than in Q2 (–0.5% after –1.1%). By contrast, general government's GFCF decreased more sharply (–1.0% after –0.8%).

Foreign trade balance contributed negatively to growth

In Q3, exports decreased (–0.6% after +1.9%), especially in transport equipment (–5.5% after +8.5%). By contrast, imports accelerated sharply (+1.7% after +0.5%), especially in oils.

All in all, foreign trade contributed negatively to GDP anew: –0.7 points in Q3 after +0.4 points in Q2.

Changes in inventories contributed positively to activity

Changes in inventories participated in GDP growth: they contributed for +0.7 points after –0.4 points in Q2. Transport equipment alone contributed for +0.4 points of GDP, thus compensating the contribution of the trade balance of these goods.1

Revisions

Changes in GDP in Q1 (+0.7%) and in Q2 2015 (0.0%) were confirmed. Revisions on previous quarters were small-scale.

1. In the other transport equipment (planes, boats, trains, etc.), changes in inventories show more the existing gap between the measurement of production (work in progress) and that of foreign exchanges (delivery) than short-term behaviour of storage management.