26 October 2012
2012- n° 267In October 2012, households’ confidence keeps declining (-1 point) Monthly consumer confidence survey - October 2012
In October 2012, households’ confidence in the economic situation slighlty decreased with respect to September. The synthetic confidence index lost 1 point, continuing the decline since May (-7 points) and remained below its long term average.
In October 2012, households’ confidence in the economic situation slighlty decreased with respect to September. The synthetic confidence index lost 1 point, continuing the decline since May (-7 points) and remained below its long term average.
Personal situation
Financial situation: declining
In October, households appreciation of their future financial situation lost 4 points. Their opinion on their past financial situation was stable, as were their opinion on the timeliness to make major purchases. These three balances remained below their long term averages.
Savings: increasing
Households’ opinion about their current savings capacity was broadly stable in October (-1 point), and their opinion about their savings capacity in the next 12 months was also almost stable (+1 point); both corresponding balances remained above their long-term averages.
Households judged October to be a more suitable moment to save than September (+3 points), continuing last summer rise (+7 points between July and September); the corresponding balance remained above its long-term average.
graphiqueGraph1_english – Consumer synthetic index
tableauTab_eng – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
| 2012 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average (1) | July | August (3) | Sept. | Oct. | |
| Synthetic index (2) | 100 | 87 | 86 | 85 | 84 |
| Financial sit., past 12 m. | –19 | –27 | –28 | –29 | –29 |
| Financial sit., next 12 m. | –3 | –20 | –21 | –21 | –25 |
| Current saving capacity | 7 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 17 |
| Expected saving capacity | –10 | –6 | –5 | –5 | –4 |
| Savings intentions, next 12 m. | 18 | 24 | 27 | 31 | 34 |
| Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. | –13 | –26 | –28 | –29 | –29 |
| General economic sit., past 12 m. | –41 | –69 | –72 | –77 | –73 |
| General economic sit., next 12 m. | –22 | –45 | –51 | –56 | –59 |
| Unemployment, next 12 m. | 31 | 67 | 69 | 73 | 71 |
| Consumer prices, past 12 m. | –13 | –3 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Consumer prices, next 12 m. | –35 | –24 | –19 | –14 | –15 |
- (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2011
- (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2011).
- (3) The estimate of August comes from the linear interpolation of data resulted from July and September surveys.
Economic situation in France
Financial situation : weakening expectations
In October, households’ opinion about future general economic situation in France lost 3 points with respect to September, and 28 points with respect to June, thus reaching its lowest historical value of November 2011. Nevertheless their opinion about past general economic situation in France improved by 4 points in October. These balances remained clearly below their long-term averages.
Future unemployment: expectations slightly decreasing but still high
Households were less numerous in October than in September to forecast an increase in unemployment. After an increase of 26 between May and September this balance of opinion declined by 2 points but remained significantly above its long-term average.
Inflation’s appreciation: slowly decreasing
In October households are more numerous to estimate a slowing inflation : the corresponding balance lost 2 points. Their opinion on future inflation was broadly steady (-1 point) and remained above their long term averages.
graphiqueGraph2_english – Balances on personnal financial situation and gen-eral economic situation
graphiquechomage_en – Households' unemployment expectations
graphiqueprix_en – Households' perception of prices
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