26 September 2012
2012- n° 234In September, households’ confidence slightly deteriorated (-2 points) Monthly consumer confidence survey - September 2012
In Septembre 2012, households’ confidence in the economic situation decreased with respect to July. The synthetic confidence index lost 2 points and remained below its long term average.
Warning : several modifications to the monthly confidence consumer survey have been introduced in September 2012, in order to allow for a better representativeness of the surveyed households sample. The effects of these changes in methodology have been measured and overall the synthetic confidence index remains almost unaffected. The effects may however be slightly more significant for some balances, that is why each series has been revised until July 2012 in order to avoid any gap. For more information, see the methodological note.
In Septembre 2012, households’ confidence in the economic situation decreased with respect to July. The synthetic confidence index lost 2 points and remained below its long term average.
Personal situation
Financial situation: slightly decreasing
From July to September, households appreciation of their past financial situation slightly decreased: the corresponding balance lost 2 points. Moreover households’ opinion on the timeliness to make major purchases also declined (-3 points). Yet, their appreciation of their future financial situation was stable. These three balances remained below their long term averages.
Savings: increasing
Households’ opinion about their current savings capacity increased by 5 points in September compared to July and their opision about their savings capacity in the next 12 months was almost stable (+1 point); both corresponding balances remained however above their long-term averages.
Households judged September to be a more suitable moment to save than June (+7 points); the corresponding balance remained above its long-term average.
graphiqueGraph1_english – Consumer synthetic index
tableauTab_eng – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
| 2012 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average (1) | June | July | August (3) | Sept. | |
| Synthetic index (2) | 100 | 90 | 87 | 86 | 85 |
| Financial sit., past 12 m. | –19 | –28 | –27 | –28 | –29 |
| Financial sit., next 12 m. | –3 | –18 | –20 | –20 | –21 |
| Current saving capacity | 7 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 18 |
| Expected saving capacity | –10 | –3 | –6 | –5 | –5 |
| Savings intentions, next 12 m. | 18 | 25 | 23 | 27 | 30 |
| Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. | –13 | –18 | –26 | –28 | –29 |
| General economic sit., past 12 m. | –41 | –69 | –70 | –73 | –77 |
| General economic sit., next 12 m. | –22 | –31 | –45 | –51 | –56 |
| Unemployment, next 12 m. | 31 | 59 | 67 | 69 | 73 |
| Consumer prices, past 12 m. | –13 | 10 | –2 | 2 | 5 |
| Consumer prices, next 12 m. | –35 | –34 | –24 | –19 | –14 |
- (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2011
- (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2011)
- (3) The estimate of August comes from the linear interpolation of data resulted from July and September surveys.
Economic situation in France
Financial situation : sharply decreasing
In September, households’ opinion about past and future financial situation in France plummeted by respectively 7 and 11 points.. These balances remained clearly below their long-term averages.
Future unemployment: expectations increasing
Households were markedly more numerous in September than in July to forecast an increase in unemployment (+6 points). This balance of opinion had grown up by 27 points since May and remained significantly above its long-term average.
Inflation’s appreciation: clearly increasing
Households perceived a increasing inflation: the balance of opinion about past and future inflation increased by 7 and 10 points in September compared with July and these balances remained above its long term average.
graphiqueGraph2_english – Balances on personnal financial situation and gen-eral economic situation
graphiquechomage_en – Households' unemployment expectations
graphiqueprix_en – Households' perception of prices
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