25 November 2011
2011- n° 288In November 2011, households’ confidence about the economic situation deteriorated
(-3 points) Monthly consumer confidence survey - November 2011
In November 2011, households’ confidence about the economic situation declined: the synthetic confidence index lost 3 points compared with October and stood at its lowest level since February 2009.
- Personal situation
- Financial situation: decreasing
- Savings: decreasing too
- Economic situation in France
- General economic situation in France: more pessimistic expectations
- Future unemployment: expectations sharply increasing
- Inflation’s appreciation: past inflation decreasing, expected inflation increasing
In November 2011, households’ confidence about the economic situation declined: the synthetic confidence index lost 3 points compared with October and stood at its lowest level since February 2009.
Personal situation
Financial situation: decreasing
In November, households appreciation of their past and future financial situation decreased: both corresponding balances lost 1 and 4 points respectively. Households also considered less opportune to make major purchases (-3 points).
Savings: decreasing too
Households’ opinion about their current saving capacity decreased in November (-2 points), but remained above its long-term average. Their appreciation of their savings capacity in the next 12 months also declined : the corresponding balance lost 3 points compared with October.
Moreover, households considered it less opportune than in October to save: the corresponding balance of opinion decreased by 3 points.
graphiqueGraph1_english – Consumer synthetic index
tableauTab_eng – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
| 2011 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average (1) | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | Nov. | |
| Synthetic index (2) | 100 | 82 | 80 | 82 | 79 |
| Financial sit., past 12 m. | –17 | –28 | –29 | –28 | –29 |
| Financial sit., next 12 m. | –2 | –22 | –25 | –24 | –28 |
| Current saving capacity | 11 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 17 |
| Expected saving capacity | –9 | –13 | –13 | –10 | –13 |
| Savings intentions, next 12 m. | 20 | 20 | 16 | 18 | 15 |
| Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. | –13 | –24 | –26 | –23 | –26 |
| General economic sit., past 12 m. | –40 | –71 | –76 | –75 | –75 |
| General economic sit., next 12 m. | –21 | –53 | –59 | –57 | –65 |
| Unemployment, next 12 m. | 33 | 57 | 70 | 60 | 70 |
| Consumer prices, past 12 m. | –19 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 10 |
| Consumer prices, next 12 m. | –35 | –18 | –17 | –20 | –10 |
- (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2010
- (2) This indicator is normalized in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2010).
Economic situation in France
General economic situation in France: more pessimistic expectations
Households were markedly more pessimistic about the expected general economic situation in France. The corresponding balance of opinion lost 8 points in November, that is, a total loss of 20 points since July, and reached its lowest historical level. Households’ opinion about the past general economic situation was stable but remained clearly below its long-term average.
Future unemployment: expectations sharply increasing
In November, households were far more numerous to forecast an increase in unemployment (+10 points). This balance of opinion went back to its level of September, the highest since June 2010.
Inflation’s appreciation: past inflation decreasing, expected inflation increasing
Households perceived a declining inflation: the corresponding balance of past inflation lost 2 points in November and has decreased by 25 points since April. Nevertheless, their forecasts about inflation sharply increased (+10 points).
graphiqueGraph2_english – Balances on personal financial situation and general economic situation
graphiquechomage_en – Households' unemployment expectations
graphiqueprix_en – Households' perception of prices
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