27 July 2012
2012- n° 190In July, households’ confidence slightly deteriorated (-2 points) Monthly consumer confidence survey - July 2012
In July 2012, households’ confidence about the economic situation decreased: the synthetic confidence index lost 2 points compared with June and remained below its long term average.
- Personal situation
- Financial situation: expectations decreasing
- Savings: slightly decreasing
- Economic situation in France
- General economic situation in France: much more pessimistic expectations
- Future unemployment: expectations sharply increasing too
- Inflation’s appreciation: past inflation decreasing, expected inflation increasing
In July 2012, households’ confidence about the economic situation decreased: the synthetic confidence index lost 2 points compared with June and remained below its long term average.
Personal situation
Financial situation: expectations decreasing
In July, households appreciation of their future financial situation slightly decreased: the corresponding balance lost 2 points with respect to June. Households’ opinion on the timeliness to make major purchases also declined (-6 points). Yet, their appreciation of their past financial situation was stable. These three balances remained below their long term averages.
Savings: slightly decreasing
Households’ opinion about their current savings capacity and their savings capacity in the next 12 months was almost stable; both corresponding balances lost one point, remaining however above their long-term averages.
Households judged July to be a less suitable moment to save than June (-3 points); the corresponding balance remained above its long-term average.
graphiqueGraph1_english – Consumer synthetic index
tableauTab_eng – CONSUMER OPINION: synthetic index and opinion balances
| 2012 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average (1) | April | May | June | July | |
| Synthetic index (2) | 100 | 88 | 90 | 89 | 87 |
| Financial sit., past 12 m. | –18 | –26 | –23 | –24 | –24 |
| Financial sit., next 12 m. | –3 | –17 | –16 | –17 | –19 |
| Current saving capacity | 12 | 17 | 22 | 22 | 21 |
| Expected saving capacity | –10 | –8 | –6 | –6 | –7 |
| Savings intentions, next 12 m. | 20 | 36 | 27 | 29 | 26 |
| Major purchases intentions, next 12 m. | –14 | –25 | –25 | –20 | –26 |
| General economic sit., past 12 m. | –41 | –65 | –66 | –69 | –70 |
| General economic sit., next 12 m. | –23 | –39 | –33 | –34 | –47 |
| Unemployment, next 12 m. | 34 | 61 | 53 | 67 | 75 |
| Consumer prices, past 12 m. | –17 | 9 | –1 | –1 | –8 |
| Consumer prices, next 12 m. | –34 | –24 | –31 | –31 | –22 |
- (1) Average value between January 1987 and December 2011
- (2) This indicator is normalised in such a way that its average equals 100 and standard error equals 10 over the estimation period (1987-2011).
Economic situation in France
General economic situation in France: much more pessimistic expectations
In July, households’ opinion about expected general economic situation in France plummeted by 13 points, that is the most important decrease since November 2007. Their opinion about the past general economic situation in France was almost stable (-1 point). These balances remained clearly below their long-term averages.
Future unemployment: expectations sharply increasing too
In July, households were markedly more numerous than in June to forecast an increase in unemployment (+8 points). This balance of opinion grew up by 22 points in two months and returned to its June 2010 level, remaining more than 40 points above its long-term average.
Inflation’s appreciation: past inflation decreasing, expected inflation increasing
Households perceived a declining inflation: the balance of opinion about past inflation lost 7 points in July. Despite a 40-point-decrease since April 2011, this balance of opinion remained above its long term average. However, their forecast about inflation increased anew (+9 points), after seven months of decline.
graphiqueGraph2_english – Balances on personnal financial situation and general economic situation
graphiquechomage_en – Households' unemployment expectations
graphiqueprix_en – Households' perception of prices
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