25 September 2013
2013- n° 216The economic outlook in the wholesale trade has recovered dramatically in September
2013 Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - September 2013
According to the managers surveyed in September 2013, the economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector is getting much better. The composite indicator has increased by eight points since July, remaining however below its long-term average. The turning-point indicator is now located in the favourable area.
- Total wholesale trade
- Activity is well oriented …
- … and should recover over the next months
- Employment has improved
- Prices would decrease
- Raw agricultural products and live animals
- Food products and beverages
- Household goods
- Capital goods in information and communication
- Other industrial capital goods
- Other specialized wholesale trade
Warning: in September, seasonal coefficients have been updated, just like synthetic indicators parameters.
Total wholesale trade
According to the managers surveyed in September 2013, the economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector is getting much better. The composite indicator has increased by eight points since July, remaining however below its long-term average.
The turning-point indicator is now located in the favourable area.
Activity is well oriented …
Wholesalers reported a past activity improvement: the balances of opinion on past sales and on received deliveries have grown even they have stayed below their averages. The balance of opinion on exports has returned to its average. The balance of opinion on imports has been on an upward trend.
… and should recover over the next months
At the same time, the general outlook for activity, which collects wholesalers’ opinions on French trade, has improved dramatically and has reached its average. The balances of opinion on global intended orders have risen until a level close to their average.
In September, the stock level has remained closed to its long-term average.
Employment has improved
Fewer wholesalers indicated a decline in workforce over the last months. The balance of opinion on expected employment has almost reached its average level.
Prices would decrease
In September, more wholesalers reported a price decrease in the past, but fewer contractors expect a decline over the next months.
graphiquegraph_indclimaff – Composite indicator
graphiquegraph_indretournf – Turning-point indicator
- Note: close to 1 (respectively -1), this indicator points to a favourable short-term economic situation (respectively unfavourable).
tableautab_cgens – Total wholesale trade
| MOY* | Mar. 13 | May 13 | July 13 | Sept. 13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 90 | 89 | 88 | 96 |
| General outlook | –25 | –55 | –59 | –49 | –25 |
| Sales | –13 | –26 | –29 | –32 | –23 |
| export sales | –15 | –23 | –28 | –19 | –16 |
| Received merchandise | –9 | –21 | –19 | –25 | –18 |
| received from abroad | –10 | –22 | –19 | –25 | –16 |
| Ordering intentions | –15 | –25 | –24 | –25 | –17 |
| ordering from abroad | –15 | –25 | –25 | –25 | –17 |
| Shipments abroad | –16 | –23 | –21 | –20 | –19 |
| Current stock | 8 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Past workforce | –1 | –12 | –12 | –10 | –7 |
| Expected workforce | –3 | –10 | –10 | –10 | –4 |
| Cash position | –10 | –9 | –11 | –12 | –9 |
| Past selling prices | 9 | –6 | –11 | –5 | –7 |
| Expecting selling prices | 16 | –2 | –3 | –4 | –1 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source : French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee
Raw agricultural products and live animals
According to the wholesalers in this sector, activity is closed to its trend. The balances of opinion on imports and stock have recovered, remaining below their long-term averages.
Food products and beverages
According to wholesalers in the food products and drink sector, activity has greatly accelerated. The balances of opinion on exports and especially imports has recovered compared to July. Ordering intentions strengthen.
Household goods
In this area, wholesalers reported a flat past activity. In the same way, the balance of opinion on exports is getting worse and has returned to its average level. Ordering intentions are badly directed.
Capital goods in information and communication
In capital goods in information and communication, sales have improved even though the balance of opinion has stayed below its average. Exports have recovered dramatically while imports have remained degraded. Over the next months, the balance of opinion on ordering intentions jumps to a level above its average.
Other industrial capital goods
In this sector, contractors reported a grim activity. The balances of opinion on foreign exchanges have gone down slowly. Ordering intentions are pessimistic.
Other specialized wholesale trade
According to these wholesalers, the balance of opinion on sales has gone up slightly, but activity has stayed not very dynamic. Exports and imports have recovered sharply. Ordering intentions remain badly directed.
graphiquegraph_sect – Past activity (sales) in capital goods
tableautab_cgsect – Secteurs du commerce de gros
| MOY* | March 13 | May 13 | July 13 | Sept. 13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | –12 | –13 | –8 | –12 | –14 |
| Export sales | –15 | –12 | –7 | –10 | –12 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –8 | –15 | –13 | –21 | –15 |
| Ordering intentions | –12 | –5 | –12 | –21 | –14 |
| Current stock | 6 | 12 | 4 | –11 | –6 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | –15 | –15 | –28 | –25 | –9 |
| Export sales | –12 | –24 | –24 | –22 | –18 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –13 | –15 | –16 | –32 | –19 |
| Ordering intentions | –11 | –21 | –17 | –19 | –13 |
| Current stock | 5 | –3 | 1 | –6 | –4 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –23 | –31 | –38 | –29 |
| Export sales | –12 | –24 | –16 | 1 | –12 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –5 | –12 | –14 | –18 | –2 |
| Ordering intentions | –14 | –24 | –24 | –17 | –16 |
| Current stock | 12 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| Capital goods in information and communication | |||||
| Sales | –9 | –12 | –18 | –39 | –19 |
| Export sales | –13 | –12 | –32 | –20 | 3 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –7 | –2 | –16 | –37 | –33 |
| Ordering intentions | –10 | –11 | –30 | –32 | –1 |
| Current stock | 8 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 16 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | –16 | –33 | –38 | –39 | –32 |
| Export sales | –21 | –31 | –32 | –18 | –25 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –11 | –25 | –31 | –27 | –33 |
| Ordering intentions | –22 | –33 | –36 | –35 | –33 |
| Current stock | 12 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 6 |
| Other specialized wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | –17 | –45 | –37 | –35 | –26 |
| Export sales | –19 | –26 | –53 | –38 | –18 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | –12 | –46 | –25 | –23 | –13 |
| Ordering intentions | –19 | –36 | –27 | –27 | –22 |
| Current stock | 6 | 0 | 1 | –4 | 1 |
- * : average since September 1979
- Source: French business survey in the wholesale trade - Insee
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade
